Will There Be a 7G?

(arxiv.org)

57 points | by Betelbuddy 4 hours ago ago

92 comments

  • ksec 2 hours ago

    It needs to work backwards, much like Video Codec and ask what do the stakeholders really want or need?

    We are closing in to rolling out the last / final phase of 5G. And yet none of the Massive MIMO on FDD is happening. We are still stuck on 32T32R, hardly that impressive considering we have that in LTE already. Not to mention the insane complexity increase from 4G to 5G. And judging from the previews of 6G that seems to be event worst.

    If you ask an average user, they will tell you they don't feel much different between 4G and 5G. Yes there are capacity increase and other things. But at this stage I don't think the benefits outweigh the cost of switching. That is both from MNOs and End user perspective.

    • jayd16 an hour ago

      Something I've noticed is that a phone is actually usable at a stadium or concert when 3g or 4g felt essentially useless at that density.

      • seb1204 11 minutes ago

        I thought that's why many large venues offer free WiFi.

      • LeoPanthera 23 minutes ago

        AT&T has figured out a way to monetize that. If you have a "Turbo" plan or add-on, your phone will work in crowded cells.

        If you don't, good luck with that.

        • Atotalnoob 11 minutes ago

          Net neutrality would have prevented this kind of pay to win

          • cortesoft a few seconds ago

            How would it have helped? Net neutrality doesn’t mean you can’t sell your customers different bandwidth guarantees.

            Net neutrality is only about the connections between a provider and external networks, not about how a company handles bandwidth contention amongst its customers.

            Net neutrality would fix a problem like “only Facebook is accessible inside crowded stadiums” not “AT&T customers who pay more get better connections in crowded stadiums”

    • PaulHoule an hour ago

      4G used clever ideas to get much better practical spectrum efficiency than people thought was possible... At the cost of very expensive infrastructure. The biggest selling point to carriers was standalone 5G networks that were cheaper to build but paradoxically carriers are prone to frame 5G as a feature customers pay more for.

      The area where wireless networks fall short is coverage. Obviously many homes and businesses are difficult to cover with wireless technology. Also many "IoT" and public service situations need wide coverage, and a network that works in 92% of places is "close but not cigar." There are few obvious answers rather than "lots of fiber and very cheap small cells" and "satellite technology" but it's what it takes to address wireless use cases that currently aren't addressed.

    • manmal 2 hours ago

      The thing that changed with 5G is that my iPhone 13 Pro‘s battery has been draining 30% faster. Enable the hotspot and it gets burning hot.

    • _ink_ an hour ago

      In Germany I notice a massive difference in 4G and 5G. If I see 4G on my phone and know I can put it away again if it's not some kind of an emergency because it's basically unusable. I am not sure what is going on here, probably the telcos that are limiting the bandwidth.

      • Scoundreller 22 minutes ago

        There’s always a gradual refarming of the spectrum into the next G. Usually the most penetrating frequencies (ie lowest) are kept on the lower G to maximize legacy support.

        For a while I had my phone stick to 3G, which doesn’t support emergency alerts, because my jurisdiction kept sending them out for joint custody disputes at 3AM 1000km away. It was fine But the 3G became unbearable and they tightened up the alert criteria.

    • Zigurd an hour ago

      Most of what passes for 5G in the US is the same old but full duplex with wider channels.

      Calling that 5G obscures the fact that millimeter wave 5G standalone is a totally different beast, and a huge network engineering challenge.

      It may seem bureaucratic to regulate what people can call 5G, but US consumers get ripped off thinking they're on an advanced network when in fact you could call it the long-term evolution (see what I did there?) of the existing network.

      • nemomarx an hour ago

        sure but is anyone deploying mmwave outside of maybe sports stadiums? I'm not exactly going to get it on my commuter train or at work.

        • aaronbrethorst 24 minutes ago

          I get 5G mmWave in my home and around my neighborhood in Seattle. In fact sometimes at home I’ll turn off WiFi on my phone just because I’m sitting in a WiFi dead zone but the mmWave still works great.

          This is on Mint Mobile, a budget MVNO now owned by T-Mobile. I pay $20/month for 15GB data.

        • reaperducer 38 minutes ago

          is anyone deploying mmwave outside of maybe sports stadiums?

          I have it in my home, but I live in the center of a major city. It just speedtested at 476.64 Mbps down, though I think I've seen 650+ in the past, but I might be mis-remembering that.

          However, I only get 5G mmwave (indicated as "5GuW" on the phone) on my work phone.

          The carrier I use for my personal phone charges an extra $20/month for 5G, and I don't care that much, so I leave it at 4G LTE.

          Edit: Just re-tested and got 767 Mbps.

    • msh 2 hours ago

      I think it’s also because the best frequencies are already occupied by 2g/3g and 4g so it’s hard to provide good 5g coverage over large areas.

      • b3orn 2 hours ago

        3G has been shut down in several countries to free up frequencies. 2G was also shut down in several countries, it seems to be still up in most european countries with shut downs being scheduled in the next few years up to 2030.

        • abroszka33 an hour ago

          2G is hard to shut down, because it just works, and many of the core services and old phones rely on it. It will survive 5G, 6G, 7G an other Gs.

          • ChocolateGod 30 minutes ago

            4G is becoming the "baseline" and replacing 2G in many of those services, especially the "low energy" IoT implementations of LTE.

          • CorrectHorseBat an hour ago

            2G is being shutdown (or already has) in many countries and those old phones and core services will need to be replaced.

  • walrus01 3 hours ago

    Note that "G" generally is a marketing term for consumers, the actual tech is 3GPP rev-whatever

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3GPP

    Like 3GPP release 15 or 16 is what we currently know as a lot of in production LTE/LTE-Advanced stuff.

    • quietsignal 2 hours ago

      Exactly. This is far outside my professional field, but lately I've found that one of the better ways to read the tea leaves of the next decade is to look at the boring 3GPP/ETSI material rather than the consumer-facing "6G/7G" discussion.

      The interesting part of 6G doesn't seem to be faster downloads so much as sensing. ISAC is basically about making the network capable of sensing the physical environment as well as communicating.

      Some of the current work is already discussing the "six sensing modes", involving different combinations of the network and UEs transmitting and receiving signals reflected from objects, and even how users might be incentivized to let their devices participate

      That feels potentially much more consequential than another speed bump. 3G/4G didn't just make phones faster; they enabled an entire ecosystem that was hard to predict beforehand. My guess is that sensing could be a similar pivot for 6G.

      • walrus01 2 hours ago

        Also if I had a dollar for every end user residential consumer (as a person who runs ISPs) that confuses "5G" with "5 GHz wifi". Like, when your install techs have to explain to a customer why they're getting shit performance in the default 20MHz wide 2.4 GHz channel, and to reconfigure all their devices in a house to talk to a 802.11ax/802.11be 3x3 or 4x4 80 MHz channel AP in the 5.x GHz band.

        Consumers literally don't know the difference between cellular/LTE carrier "5G" marketing and the "5 GHz" band on their home router now.

        • zahlman an hour ago

          > Consumers literally don't know the difference between cellular/LTE carrier "5G" marketing and the "5 GHz" band on their home router now.

          Why would they know the difference? They don't have any technical appreciation of what either term means or its implication for what the hardware actually does; the terms sound similar; and they've been trained by decades of marketing to choose bigger numbers[1].

          [1]: And many of them apparently didn't even know that "one third" is bigger than "one quarter", as A&W found out the hard way: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third-pound_burger

    • amelius 2 hours ago

      Over 5G you need specialized suits, like fighter pilots have.

    • mytailorisrich an hour ago

      No it is not. 2G->3G->4G->5G refer to real changes in technology and system architecture, as detailed in the Wikipedia page you linked to.

      3GPP releases are more fine-grained than that. E.g. rel. 99 introduced 3G/WCDMA, rel. 8 introduced 4G/LTE, etc. Other releases only add features.

      In the industry Gs are used all the time to refer to the technology/architecture, then releases are used to refer to specific features, though generally noone supports all the features of a release.

      • walrus01 42 minutes ago

        Tell that to the cellular industry marketing people who decided to put "4.5G" on things. Also not everything that is marketed "5G" is equal in capability, there's a myriad of different bands in different regulatory regimes in the world, some of which go through material like brick/concrete much better than others. You'll see "5G" connections that have speed tests in an urban area that top out at 50 Mbps downstream and others where you'll have 850 Mbps.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTE_frequency_bands

        Even within a category such as "4G" there have been significant advances in some radio capabilities since it was introduced, like MU-MIMO, vs early "4G".

        There's a very large number of different things that are all being marketed as "5G" now, so it's really a drastic oversimplification to try to say that all 5G is the same thing. Do you not remember the very early days of "3G" when cellular carriers were trying to market EDGE/GPRS as if it was 3G?

  • Havoc 3 hours ago

    There will always be new Gs...marketing teams require it.

    I hope they go into the direction wifi is taking though - stability rather than speed.

    I never think about cell speeds being slow anymore but irritation at lack of coverage is still frequent. Esp in urban jungles where buildings block it

    • wolvoleo 3 hours ago

      That's more of a physics thing.

      For building penetration you need low frequencies but those low frequencies have less bandwidth available because the bands are smaller. At the same time bandwidth needs rapidly go up, making those low bands fuller. Because there's a limit to how many bits per second you can get out of a Hz of spectrum.

      What would really help is the easy provisioning of signal boosters. A bit like the sure signal thingies that Vodafone used to sell but multi provider ideally. This could be incorporated into the standard. Then establishments could easily include a booster just like many of them offer free WiFi now.

      • tliltocatl 41 minutes ago

        > What would really help is the easy provisioning of signal boosters.

        But that's also a physics thing. Plain same-frequency boosters hamper frequency reuse on neighbor cells, so less bandwidth for you. And if boosters run on a separate band, you'd need to do frequency planning for them just like it's done for cells now.

        Wireless is finicky, we should really avoid using it everywhere wired can be used instead.

      • Havoc 3 hours ago

        >A bit like the sure signal thingies that Vodafone used to sell but multi provider ideally.

        They're still readily available.

        But yeah think this would need a legislative push to solve. Force high rises to host multi provider relays as you say and hook it into their fiber links.

    • xattt 3 hours ago

      Hopefully, they’ll move to reporting versioning as an explicit value rather than tying it to a constant that the general population might not know about. (I.e. 6g = 58.86; 7g = 68.67).

      /s

      • fc417fc802 10 minutes ago

        I think we should use hex for brevity, since consumers get confused by long numbers. Ex 6G = 8B.9 and 7G = A0.D or similar.

  • krackers an hour ago
  • BlackRabbit1 3 hours ago

    5G SA isn't still available for the broad masses yet.. and they are talking of 7G?

    I had the chance to test it in Germany with Telefonica as it can be activated for free. It saves a lot of battery compared to 5G NSA. But they still had smaller problems with hand-overs to LTE and GSM.

    Colleagues told me that the 5G NSA battery consumption problem is pretty much a solved problem with other basebands and only Pixels are famous for suffering this much.

    • numpad0 3 hours ago

      These industries are pipelined. When generation N is in operation, N+1 hardware and software must be in development, N+2 specifications must be in endless committee discussions phase, and N+3 techs must be worked on in labs, etc.

      • throwaway2037 an hour ago

        This is an underrated point. PCIe, DRAM, and WiFi standards are similar. I watched a YouTube video about how PCIe 6.0 was developed, and, damn, the pipeline is long and very complex. Even test equipment has a separate/parallel pipeline.

    • esperent 3 hours ago

      I'm not sure what the "SA" part means but my phone says it's on 5g right now and has done most of the time for a couple of years now.

      • eightysixfour 3 hours ago

        The 5G standard is a bit of a mess. In the US we heavily rolled out 5G NSA, which means you still have a 4G network core with both 4G and 5G radios at the edge. You get a chunk of the performance benefits without having to replace the network core first.

        This usually has similar (in practice) performance characteristics to LTE Advanced.

        5G SA is an actual, end to end 5G network. The two biggest wins here for an end user are reduced latency (a big focus in 5G) and reduced power usage (the phone doesn’t need a simultaneous 4G connection).

        • porridgeraisin 2 hours ago

          Yeah. In india jio was SA from the start. Airtel began NSA then I think now they have mostly moved to SA.

      • numpad0 3 hours ago

        5G SA means real 5G. 5G NSA means 4G over 5G NR.

        They created an option to use just the 5G radio modem parts with 4G tower equipment to run them in the "Non-StandAlone" mode, so that telcos can start deploying 5G before even it matures. And the modem parts and their specs are called "5G New Radio", which is one of names of all time.

      • wolvoleo 3 hours ago

        SA means standalone meaning real 5G.

        NSA is non stand alone meaning basically 4G with some 5G backwards compatible improvements.

      • BlackRabbit1 3 hours ago

        Just because your phone shows 5G doesn't mean it's connected to a 5G station. It also can only be a signaled flag from a 4G station.

    • tomasGiden 3 hours ago

      And companies are selling electric cars even though not everyone has a petrol car…

      I remember people saying the same thing about 4G relative 3G and 5G relative 4G.

      • klrefg 2 hours ago

        2G -> 3G -> 4G were all massive jumps that all enabled new use cases.

        I doubt majority of phone users who have a decent 4G connection would notice the difference if they upgrade to 5G.

        • tomasGiden 21 minutes ago

          It's either that or people complaining about "Now I can run out of data much faster". But what people forget is that not all the new tech is to improve it for a single subscriber. A lot of it is to utilize the spectrum better and in that way get more capacity for everyone. Basically, if everyone was on 4G, it would be clogged and slow for everyone.

        • BlackRabbit1 an hour ago

          In Germany telcos using 700MHz for 5G a lot (also for LTE in non-5G regions and sometimes with DSS). So they can create a lot of coverage on rural areas or building penetration.

          Telefonica didn't set their signallevel-to-bars-parameters on their SIMs correctly yet. Even directly next to a antenna you only see 1-2 bar although the signal level is maxing out.

          • Scoundreller 15 minutes ago

            700MHz is a mixed bag for rural coverage. Great for punching through trees, but need very tall towers to overcome destructive fresnel lens losses. Higher frequencies are usually better here + more gain!

        • dnautics 2 hours ago

          I feel like 5g is worse

          • BlackRabbit1 an hour ago

            In terms of signal level?

            Well.. that amount of bars you can see depending on the real signal level is just a SIM configuration. In the "newer" networks they aren't configured properly yet.

    • parineum 2 hours ago

      > 5G SA isn't still available for the broad masses yet.. and they are talking of 7G?

      Talking is one of the steps towards making things available to the broad masses. You have to start these things ahead of time so they are ready to deploy when the time comes.

  • jruohonen 4 hours ago

    Well, I suppose the rolling out of 5G must happen at some point, but otherwise his/her take in Section III.A is spot on and the most important takeaway.

    • VorpalWay 3 hours ago

      5G seems pretty widly available here in Sweden in my experience, even in the countryside. Not that the speeds are actually better than 4G, but the indicator say 5G as I'm writing this in a tent in the middle of nowhere. :)

      I guess other countries are further behind?

      • tvink 3 hours ago

        On raw coverage of 5g, only a few much denser countries are better. You live in basically the best 4g and 5g covered, sparsely populated country on earth :) most countries are not just further behind.

        • vlovich123 3 hours ago

          American cities also generally seem to have good 5G coverage with 4G frequencies being repurposed for 5G and 4G overall being put on life support as it’s phased out

      • kergonath 3 hours ago

        Lucky you. On some parts of my commute, in an urban area of 10M people, I am happy if I get some 3G.

      • jruohonen 3 hours ago

        > I guess other countries are further behind?

        Yes, and even in Europe. The demand-led need was badly misunderstood or anticipated in my opinion as operators were hesitant to invest (and some big ones still are). In this sense, 7G is a pipe dream (but of course worth researching as such).

      • wolvoleo 3 hours ago

        Don't just look at the indicator on your phone though. Providers are free to scheme with those. Some honestly show the icon when you are on 5G. Others use the option of showing it when you are on 4G (not even 5G NSA) but the network offers 5G on the cell.

        The marketing guys got involved with this indicator and completely ruined its trustworthiness.

        • numpad0 3 hours ago

          I've been away from Twitter phone nerds scene for quite a while, what do they use now for those details? Is it still ##service## or something else entirely?

          • wolvoleo 2 hours ago

            There's apps for that but yes the built in one is also still there.

            I think it's not so much a nerd thing rather than a false advertising one though.

        • VorpalWay 3 hours ago

          It has been going between 4G and 5G today while hiking, so if they lie it isn't all the time at least.

          But what do you suggest instead (on Android, a Pixel specifically)?

          • wolvoleo 2 hours ago

            It depends on the provider. They can choose what the logo means.

            Ps I looked it up, it can show it if the cell has 5G even if you're not connected to that at the moment, not if the network has it somewhere.

            But each provider makes different choices. They have like 4 options to choose from.

            You can use a network monitor app (or the built in one but it's a bit technical) to see what you're really connected to.

      • hn_throwaway_99 3 hours ago

        With 5G in particular I think it's important that people talk about which specific technologies they're referring to.

        In the US at least, low-band or extended range 5G is widely available and has been for some time (and I'm talking about the "real" 5G low-band, not the BS marketing speak AT&T used for a while). Mid and high band 5G, or 5G ultra capacity, is much less available but if course it only really makes sense in dense cities.

        I'm surprised that low band 5G isn't widely available in most 1st world countries, as again it's been here in the US for many years now.

  • shawn_w an hour ago

    7G? Man I hope not. I watched a fine documentary a few years ago about what happens when they try rolling 7G out...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Train_to_the_End_of_the_World

  • stuaxo 37 minutes ago

    What would RF native computing involve ?

  • ande-mnoc an hour ago

    Both the abstract and the introduction score a 100% on Pangram. What’s going on there?

  • lukeschlather 2 hours ago

    We really need a hybrid short-haul standard designed for short-range transmission. Something that uses low-frequency spectrum currently allocated to 5G but isn't locked to a single carrier and the protocol can be shared between WiFi and Cellular. Staking out some new frequencies would be great too.

  • 0utcast 3 hours ago

    Ironically for mobile data, I've liked and found 4G to be more consistent. Not always as fast, but it never drops for me or fails to load.

  • zahlman an hour ago

    This is the first I've heard of any plan for 6G….

  • wartywhoa23 2 hours ago

    Yes, there will be, to deliver two minute hates to the telescreens.

  • prism56 3 hours ago

    Can't answer this question as I know basically nothing.

    I'd be perfectly happy with less headline speed increases and just a real world busy tower speed improvement. That or efficiency gains.

  • ortusdux 2 hours ago

    I'm surprised that Starlink didn't try and steal the branding. If anything would count as a new Generation in radio communication...

  • tolugenius 3 hours ago

    Could there come a limit to the G-cycle? Like either a) marginal gains slow/stall progress or b) more connectivity simply not being better? Curious to hear from folks in this field if this question has been raised.

    • londons_explore 3 hours ago

      Not soon there won't be.

      There is no reason you can't have phased array antennas of tens of elements on the handset and thousands on the masts, to give a massive bandwidth increase.

      It will take a lot of generations to get to the limit physics sets.

  • karim79 3 hours ago

    I'm still waiting for faster SMS. SMPP needs a performance update. This is important everyone.

  • drob518 an hour ago

    Do we even need 6G?

  • Freedom2 36 minutes ago

    I'm concerned because my 5G microchip is still going strong. Will the next advances be compatible?

  • loeg 2 hours ago

    We've already got the G7.

  • respectattentio 3 hours ago

    The right question:

    Will 7G be needed?

    I say no for the next 15 years. Because there are 1425235 other things that are way much important than this.

    • someguynamedq 3 hours ago

      Right and society only works on one thing at a time

      • respectattentio 3 hours ago

        Yes, why working on something that "may" be beneficial in the far future? This is like inventing a 128-bit CPU architecture. Nobody would be able to utilize like even 1% of that, even with AI.

        • Dylan16807 2 hours ago

          I'm not sure what performance improvements you're expecting with cell phone generations but most of it's pretty incremental. I don't think 7G is going to be even twice as fast as 5G on the same frequencies. It should be more stable, maybe millimeter wave will get deployed more, but it won't be wasted at all, lots of towers are going to be running at 100% utilization.

    • alt227 2 hours ago

      It may not be needed, but it will certainly be rolled out.

  • zkms 3 hours ago

    Run the abstract through pangram.com; this is AI slop: https://www.pangram.com/history/49f81c92-a2f4-46f6-91b3-e185...

  • j45 2 hours ago

    There will always be a faster technology, regardless of what it's called.

  • general1465 3 hours ago

    Unlikely. 5G hit the wall on UWB (Ultra Wide Band; 10-100GHz) because geniuses who were doing marketing for its transfer speeds did not realized that such high frequencies are disrupted with minimal amount conductive material in the air - so surprise surprise, 5G UWB does not work when you are behind a wall, it does not work when your big head full of water is in the way of BTS and most perplexing for common folk, it does not work behind a glass because regular glass is full of iron - so forget on 5G UWB on a train, tram or bus, unless somebody put mini BTS inside the vehicle.

    So 5G for most folks is just marginally better LTE and that's about it. Any higher frequencies like 6G (30GHZ~3THz) or 7G (???) won't achieve much of anything outside of laboratory, because they will hit exactly same walls like 5G UWB.

    • wolvoleo 2 hours ago

      Well mmWave was never for large areas. It's for ultra high density like in stadiums with 100k people. You know those cases where current networks are completely unusable because they saturate.

      Its extremely limited range and penetration is a benefit there because you can put up thousands of cells without them interfering with each other.

      It was also meant for offices as a managed WiFi replacement. Stuff like that. In this vision every laptop would have 5G built in and could work anywhere. It just didn't take off because of the chicken egg problem. Not many phones with mmWave. Not many providers with it.

      The speeds thing was just marketing BS as usual but mmWave did have benefits in niche scenarios.

      • general1465 36 minutes ago

        > It was also meant for offices as a managed WiFi replacement. Stuff like that. In this vision every laptop would have 5G built in and could work anywhere. It just didn't take off because of the chicken egg problem. Not many phones with mmWave. Not many providers with it.

        It did not took off because the whole sales pitch was utter nonsense. Why would anyone put 3rd party 5G BTS inside their buildings and then pay for data, when they can use WiFi for free + they control the network so they can decide how data are shared between stations and which stations are allowed to be logged in.

        I can see that 6G is pitching... exactly same thing. Which predictably is going to fail... on exactly same issue.

    • porridgeraisin 2 hours ago

      There was full team that found out that did the test that 26ghz doesn't work IRL. It didn't even work across a street corner. But they were ignored in favour of some well, career pushers.

      In india, jio is using 26ghz for wifi now instead. It's a service called airfiber. This don't even use any 5G. It's a weird custom hybrid solution where all the frames are wifi. Density here means that it's feasible to put the receiver on the rooftop of apartment buildings wherever you can get LoS. So in some sense it's been salvaged and those bands are actually being used. It's a fairly popular service.

      URLL failed because it's main immediate usecase was supposed to be vehicle to vehicle comms. And auto didn't want telcos middlemanning there. But there is still hope here.

  • ck2 3 hours ago

    even the moon only has 4G

    well if they ever get the lander upright, you'd think they'd learn to put crashbags that self-inflate to upright landers by now

    * https://www.wired.com/story/nokia-4g-network-on-the-moon/

  • dorianmariecom 3 hours ago

    yes