Indeed. Especially since HN is probably considered "old and cranky" but the younger generation, who get their dose of language flamewars and JS framework from some other place that I can't know of. (Can you get a decent "common lisp vs scheme" flame on tiktok ?)
Iran hit a uae ship today. For the ships that are transiting are shipping companies paying Iran to allow shipments? If it's in bitcoin then the payments would be visible if you know/suspect the wallets ot amounts.
> For the ships that are transiting are shipping companies paying Iran to allow shipments?
Ships aren’t transiting without American approval and if I recall the US said ships paying Iran were not permitted to utilize the Strait.
But we also know the US has quietly been escorting some number of tankers out of the Strait over the last few months, unless they are Iranian, so there are likely ships that are transiting under American protection and they aren’t paying Iran.
Iran's goal is to become the superpower of the middle east. This has always involved getting the bomb, but now with Trump's gift of a war he can't win, they'll also take control of the strait of Hormuz.
If you observe the wording of everything they've said, they are being consistent: acknowledge our right to decide who passes and who doesn't (via a toll) or have your ship attacked. Those are words used to express consistency in policy, and to position themselves as reliable overlords of the region.
For Iran the long term result will be a playground without any children playing in it.
Gulf oil exporters will move away from utilizing the Strait over the next few years due to this continued threat - what will it be next time? Give us more chocolate or we’ll close the Strait again! ? You offended our Dear Leader, Straight closed for 4 days! Nobody is going to tolerate that.
So eventually we will wind up with a Strait in which primarily Iranian oil would pass, except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through while Gulf powers just use alternative means.
It’s not necessarily the win that Iran or its supporters seem to think it is.
For now but they can build pipelines and such. Iraq is discussing sending one through Syria.
I’m not sure what other products transit the Straight from memory but the only one that matters for America and the global economy too is oil and so as long as that’s flowing nobody really cares about Iran threatening ships in the Straight. Eventually the only ships they can threaten will be theirs, but they won’t be allowed to leave. Oh well.
Sure I should have been more specific when I said oil. Those pipelines will have to be redirected or Iran will just have to leave them be. Blowing them up would result in reciprocal action of blowing up Iranian oil and gas facilities. It goes both ways.
Sure if they use strait closures the same way Trump uses tariffs, everyone will try to not use it. But if they just collect fees that are cheaper than alternatives, ships will keep on going through.
We would just blockade it then as we are now. Iran gets no money and doesn’t get to sell oil. They’ve already demonstrated that they use the Straight in the same way Trump uses tariffs. As you know, businesses don’t like uncertainty and it’s uncertain what whims or random “fees” or demands Iran will have in the future.
And it’s not only oil, it’s also LNG and Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, and virtually all of its LNG currently has to pass through Hormuz.
That would be long and expensive infrastructure constructions.
The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
Definitely easier said than done but necessary nonetheless.
> The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
I don’t think this is true. Iran has already mined the Straight before when something or another didn’t go their way, and they were already building up missile and drone capacity to make their shutdown even less manageable by regional powers and American forces.
Had they been granted say another 2-3 years of buildup we really couldn’t have done anything and would have probably had to accept Iranian control.
You also can’t divorce this specific issue from Iran’s general behavior: helping to kill Ukrainians, killing innocent people in the Middle East and creating wars in countries like Syria, and other things like murdering over 30,000 of their own people. They also still stone homosexuals to death. The Straight and their attempt to hold global oil production hostage is just another item on the long list of grievances.
> except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through
How exactly will the US do that?
They’ve been trying for months, and can’t because Iran have the literal high ground. It’s accepted that Short of a massive land invasion committing millions of US troops, they can’t control the strait.
The US controls it right now in the same way that Iran does. No ships are allowed through without permission. You’re aware we have blockaded the Straight, right?
The problem is that USA does not have any more rights than Iran to declare a blockade.
If this will continue for too long, other countries may decide that they want to pass through the strait no matter what USA says. Then what will USA do, declare war on everybody? Threaten to use nuclear weapons against those who want to use the strait?
For decades, USA has used various blackmailing methods to force other countries to follow its policies, but nowadays most countries seek methods to free themselves from these constraints, so it is unclear if USA will be again successful in the future with such tactics.
>Despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear activity is for peaceful purposes only, former Iranian MP Ali Motahari revealed on Sunday that Iran "from the very beginning" aimed to make a nuclear bomb, in an interview with the Iran Student Correspondents Association.
We should be aware that the Iranian regime exists in a environment that justifies lying in situations where they sense the need to do so. It should be admitted that they are not the only ones.
That’s part of his standard bag of tricks. Say loads of ridiculous offensive threatening stuff. See what sticks with his base. Let the sycophants around him laugh nervously but not explicitly say he’s joking unless he does first. He’s only joking when it suits and not joking when it also suits.
Henry Hill: You're a pistol, you're really funny. You're really funny.
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean I'm funny?
Henry Hill: It's funny, you know. It's a good story, it's funny, you're a funny guy.
[laughs]
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean, you mean the way I talk? What?
Henry Hill: It's just, you know. You're just funny, it's... funny, you know the way you tell the story and everything.
Not functioning... "This site can’t be reached" - Slashdot effect?
For anyone else wondering, I guess Slashdot was an old website like Reddit. Like the "Reddit hug of death"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slashdot_effect
There's no reason to be this mean to us olds.
Indeed. Especially since HN is probably considered "old and cranky" but the younger generation, who get their dose of language flamewars and JS framework from some other place that I can't know of. (Can you get a decent "common lisp vs scheme" flame on tiktok ?)
Only if you have a Beowulf cluster of tiktoks
Lol I see the old /. nerd are still beating on that old joke.
It was supposed to be a Beowulf cluster of Furbies, right?
I was user #404 on slashdot.
I tried looking you up but were unable to find your profile site.
https://m.slashdot.org/profile/404/ ?
Woosh
Speak for yourself.
For anyone else wondering, The Rolling Stones was a popular band.
Still touring 60 years later.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_Rolling_Stones_con...
For anyone else wondering, Reddit was an old website where you posted prompts and received comments, like a slow version of ChatGPT.
And yes. Reddit had hallucinations too. Often replied with inaccurate statements with utmost confidence and certainty.
What? Slashdot isn't that ancient. It peaked hardly 15 years back.
score 5: funny
Seemed to me https://www.marinetraffic.com was the reference for tracking ships, and it's up.
What data sources does it use? Some ships turn off AIS when transiting the strait and cannot be easily tracked.
It's a 21 mile wide strait with heavy radar coverage and probably folks with plain old binoculars right now.
You might miss a submarine or two.
instead here is actual daily transits from recorded trade volume (week delay)
from 80-100 in February
to 1-8 past 200 days (tiny hump during fake MOU)
click on YTD
* https://en.macromicro.me/charts/94482/imf-strait-of-hormuz-n...
* https://i.imgur.com/fDonsfs.png
the real question is what is pressing down oil prices?
some scam we don't know about yet?
because strategic oil reserve is now below 300 million barrels which means it is experiencing permanent damage that cannot be repaired
Iran hit a uae ship today. For the ships that are transiting are shipping companies paying Iran to allow shipments? If it's in bitcoin then the payments would be visible if you know/suspect the wallets ot amounts.
Or are the attacks on ships more or less random?
> For the ships that are transiting are shipping companies paying Iran to allow shipments?
Ships aren’t transiting without American approval and if I recall the US said ships paying Iran were not permitted to utilize the Strait.
But we also know the US has quietly been escorting some number of tankers out of the Strait over the last few months, unless they are Iranian, so there are likely ships that are transiting under American protection and they aren’t paying Iran.
Iran's goal is to become the superpower of the middle east. This has always involved getting the bomb, but now with Trump's gift of a war he can't win, they'll also take control of the strait of Hormuz.
If you observe the wording of everything they've said, they are being consistent: acknowledge our right to decide who passes and who doesn't (via a toll) or have your ship attacked. Those are words used to express consistency in policy, and to position themselves as reliable overlords of the region.
For Iran the long term result will be a playground without any children playing in it.
Gulf oil exporters will move away from utilizing the Strait over the next few years due to this continued threat - what will it be next time? Give us more chocolate or we’ll close the Strait again! ? You offended our Dear Leader, Straight closed for 4 days! Nobody is going to tolerate that.
So eventually we will wind up with a Strait in which primarily Iranian oil would pass, except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through while Gulf powers just use alternative means.
It’s not necessarily the win that Iran or its supporters seem to think it is.
More than oil goes through the strait. And some of the producers don’t have another way out except via a neighboring country.
For now but they can build pipelines and such. Iraq is discussing sending one through Syria.
I’m not sure what other products transit the Straight from memory but the only one that matters for America and the global economy too is oil and so as long as that’s flowing nobody really cares about Iran threatening ships in the Straight. Eventually the only ships they can threaten will be theirs, but they won’t be allowed to leave. Oh well.
LNG goes through the strait too and pipelines are an easy target for sabotage
Sure I should have been more specific when I said oil. Those pipelines will have to be redirected or Iran will just have to leave them be. Blowing them up would result in reciprocal action of blowing up Iranian oil and gas facilities. It goes both ways.
Sure if they use strait closures the same way Trump uses tariffs, everyone will try to not use it. But if they just collect fees that are cheaper than alternatives, ships will keep on going through.
We would just blockade it then as we are now. Iran gets no money and doesn’t get to sell oil. They’ve already demonstrated that they use the Straight in the same way Trump uses tariffs. As you know, businesses don’t like uncertainty and it’s uncertain what whims or random “fees” or demands Iran will have in the future.
Easier said than done.
And it’s not only oil, it’s also LNG and Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, and virtually all of its LNG currently has to pass through Hormuz.
That would be long and expensive infrastructure constructions.
The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
Definitely easier said than done but necessary nonetheless.
> The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
I don’t think this is true. Iran has already mined the Straight before when something or another didn’t go their way, and they were already building up missile and drone capacity to make their shutdown even less manageable by regional powers and American forces.
Had they been granted say another 2-3 years of buildup we really couldn’t have done anything and would have probably had to accept Iranian control.
You also can’t divorce this specific issue from Iran’s general behavior: helping to kill Ukrainians, killing innocent people in the Middle East and creating wars in countries like Syria, and other things like murdering over 30,000 of their own people. They also still stone homosexuals to death. The Straight and their attempt to hold global oil production hostage is just another item on the long list of grievances.
Hopefully part of the long term effect is people accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels altogether.
> except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through
How exactly will the US do that?
They’ve been trying for months, and can’t because Iran have the literal high ground. It’s accepted that Short of a massive land invasion committing millions of US troops, they can’t control the strait.
The US controls it right now in the same way that Iran does. No ships are allowed through without permission. You’re aware we have blockaded the Straight, right?
The problem is that USA does not have any more rights than Iran to declare a blockade.
If this will continue for too long, other countries may decide that they want to pass through the strait no matter what USA says. Then what will USA do, declare war on everybody? Threaten to use nuclear weapons against those who want to use the strait?
For decades, USA has used various blackmailing methods to force other countries to follow its policies, but nowadays most countries seek methods to free themselves from these constraints, so it is unclear if USA will be again successful in the future with such tactics.
So the US has kind of stopped traffic on and off.
They certain don’t control the straight, because Iran can attack any ship passing through with ease and the US can’t stop them.
Notice how no US navy ships are going through? They know they’ll be sunk. That doesn’t sound like control to me.
> This has always involved getting the bomb
This is absolutely 100% not true. Iran had a fatwa against obtaining nuclear weapon weapons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatwa_against_nuclear_weapons
That is until the United States started bombing them
The same wiki prominently points out:
Iranian politician Ali Motahari said the fatwa only forbids the use of a nuclear weapon, not its creation.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-705027
>Despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear activity is for peaceful purposes only, former Iranian MP Ali Motahari revealed on Sunday that Iran "from the very beginning" aimed to make a nuclear bomb, in an interview with the Iran Student Correspondents Association.
We should be aware that the Iranian regime exists in a environment that justifies lying in situations where they sense the need to do so. It should be admitted that they are not the only ones.
Words vs actions+incentives
Not only is it closed for marine traffic, they even shut the website.
This like when a company has a status page, but the status page is in failing state.
This one has been reliable for a while..
https://iranmonitor.org
[flagged]
It's off.
hormus.down at the moment
This idiot is now suggesting the US annex the strait: https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-ll-declar...
What a fallen nation
Maybe there will be a sudden spike in ... berth tourism.
/I kid, I kid, it wouldn't work
As a person who has listened to stupid and crazy things out of Trumps mouth for about 10 years; I almost think this was him 'joking'.
Unfortunately, none of the other things that should have been jokes, weren't
That’s part of his standard bag of tricks. Say loads of ridiculous offensive threatening stuff. See what sticks with his base. Let the sycophants around him laugh nervously but not explicitly say he’s joking unless he does first. He’s only joking when it suits and not joking when it also suits.
Henry Hill: You're a pistol, you're really funny. You're really funny.
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean I'm funny?
Henry Hill: It's funny, you know. It's a good story, it's funny, you're a funny guy.
[laughs]
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean, you mean the way I talk? What?
Henry Hill: It's just, you know. You're just funny, it's... funny, you know the way you tell the story and everything.
Tommy DeVito: [it becomes quiet]
Funny how? What's funny about it?
What a moron. How does a third of the country still support this asinine clown.
[dead]
Do we need a website to count to zero now?
The website is still up and has more bandwidth than EVER BEFORE. Some people are calling it the website of steel.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION IN THIS MATTER