Back of the envelope calculation (could be off, correct me if I am)
If you are a large enough company that spends million+ on inference a month, it makes sense to buy a GB300 rack ($6M on top range from what I could find) which has 20.7 TB. Since the model is mixed trained (MXFP4), you would need less than 10% of the rack's memory to serve the full model. Aggregate HBM bandwidth: 576 TB/s. You can run over 6000 parallel agentic workflows (each with ~100k context on average) at ~30 tok/s.
Assuming the annual amortization+electricity at $1.5M/year and about 50% average annual utilization, you get less than 60 cents (USD) per million output token, for a frontier model with plenty of capacity to share, all your data never leaving premises and well over an order of magnitude cheaper!
As long as a company believes that the openweight models will continue to get more capable and 'AI is here to stay', this model provides the first solid footing for a decision to just buy a rack.
As far as I can tell, license fees are only applicable if you have more than 20m USD/month revenue from services provided using the model, or serve more than 100m users.
the only reason other labs can catch up is because the frontier labs can be distilled, and they siphon a % of the labs' revenue to reinvest into the next iteration
full accel would mean nationalizing the big 2 labs and locking in manhattan project style until RSI
This K3 release just helped every other lab on the planet stay in the race by making it possible for them to build on top of it, placing them at the frontier starting line instead of having to spend billions of their own dollars and risking it all to attempt to catch up.
The open source contributions I linked to above will move the whole field forward and reduce the costs of training and inference for everyone.
Open science compounds on it self, every new advancement pushes the field forwards and opens up new grounds for future improvements.
I think the argument is that decentralization leads to deceleration because it means less centralized funding and data. Those are the two primary ingredients for accel.
The problem with the decel/accel rhetoric is that it lacks nuance.
If your worldview is “most of the progress is made by closed labs, then open labs fast-follow” (which isn’t implausible given the documented distillation of Fable), and further that open labs cannot make make meaningful progress vs the closed labs except by fast-following and that they won’t pick up the ability to make progress after the closed labs are gone, then driving closed labs out of business slows down overall progress.
I think it's pretty hard to hold that worldview: Anthropic couldn't ship a reasoning model until they copied DeepSeek R1's homework, and they've all copied DS-style super-sparse MoEs at this point too.
Open Source models decelerate growth of closed AI. For people who think (or want) AI = closed_AI then that argument has weight. Good luck getting them to update their priors.
Open source AI is actually a lot less "powerful" than genuine frontier models, i.e. it has a much tighter inherent capability ceiling. This is "decelerationist" from a purely AGI-pilled point of view but it's actually great if you're worried about a capabilities arms race putting AI Safety at severe risk.
Kimi K3 is plausibly a lot less dangerous than a totally jailbroken ChatGPT/Gemini/Claude Sonnet (let alone Opus or Fable!) and it's quite deeply weird how no one seems to be calling for those models to be banned or restrained by further regulation. Why the double standard against the less concerning (but more efficient!) open weight models?
If you're targeting widespread local/on prem deployment which is what many open weight models are doing, that inherently limits your scale in terms of total model weights/inference-time compute compared to running in a few centralized datacenters. A centralized model will always be able to leverage a larger scale of deployment, placing it much closer to the genuine "frontier".
I know it's a hard ask on this site, but I need you to start parsing content and not tone. It was a helpful bit of context, even if it was a bit vitriolic.
> If the Licensee or any of its affiliates operates a Model as a Service business, and the aggregate revenue of the Licensee and its affiliates exceeds 20 million US dollars (or the equivalent in other currencies) in total over any consecutive 12 months, the Licensee must enter into a separate agreement with Moonshot AI before using the Software or its derivative works for any commercial purpose.
+ the existing 100 million monthly active users, or more than 20 million US dollars for commercial products have to name Kimi clause
The models they released in 2025 - https://huggingface.co/moonshotai/models - were clean MIT. They started doing the "modified MIT" thing in January 2026 with moonshotai/Kimi-K2-Thinking
To be clear, the restriction on "Model as a Service" past $20M yearly revenue is new to K3. K2.x had the attribution requirement for any commercial use with more than $20M monthly revenue.
In what way was the license "janky"? Moonshot isn't a trillion dollar US behemoth. If these terms allow it to release near frontier models with open weights, so startups and anyone with enough hardware can use them, while charging only companies with more than $20 million in revenue or 100 million users, that seems like a reasonable trade off.
Software licenses aren't enforced through litigation as much as they are enforced through the _threat_ of litigation and legal risk. In other words, pretty much every company pays lawyers to minimize legal risk. Those lawyers inevitably look at all the contracts, agreements, and software licenses, and tell the C-suite what to do in order to keep their legal exposure as low as possible. "Don't violate other companies' IP," is pretty low-hanging fruit in those conversations.
It is a very rare (and ballsy, and perhaps incompetent) company that ignores their lawyers' recommendations to adhere to the letter of all of the software licenses they are bound to.
Hah, so much for "open weights" :D Fair enough, they're at least downloadable, shame they didn't end up being actually open, nor open source, the community had really high hopes for this. But again, still available for download, so better than nothing else I suppose.
No, I don't know a single project I'd call "open source" (as understood by the FOSS community) that restricts what you can do with it, that'd make it very much "not open source" as you're discriminating against specific persons/groups/fields of endeavor.
Beyond reciprocity which is the entire point of that license, what restrictions does it come with? I guess you could say that it has a restriction of adding new restrictions, but surely that's not what you're talking about?
> we build a self-evolving, hierarchically organized knowledge graph that agents continuously expand through web-scale exploration across knowledge-intensive and coding domains
knowledge graph guided task synthesis. very cool! i have long wondered about the "how do you get good coverage of all the tasks" problem.
maybe some interesting theoretical work there around the rate of production of new knowledge itself and various mechanisms (human approaches, mechanistic approaches, etc).
LoRA + SFT, but it'll be big - better to wait for a finetuning API from one of the providers, I wouldn't jump straight to RL or off-policy pseudo-RL like DPO.
Can someone explain what are teachers in Multi-Teacher On-Policy Distillation? I can imagine math, coding and other verifiable domains, but they also have biology? Is it where distillation from bigger models come in?
Latest "big" release from any of the bigger American lab must have been GPT-OSS-120b I think? Released ~summer 2025, so pretty much two years ago. Doesn't seem like it'll happen by itself, so something either forcing their hand figuratively, or something forcing their hand literally.
Personally I was wishing/hoping for one of the recent Gemma releases to be in the ~100B class at least, but sadly Google is keeping that all for themselves.
NVIDIA-Nemotron-3-Ultra-550B-A55B was released in June 4th 2026 and I think it was the largest open US model until thinking machine's Inkling (975B) was released a couple of weeks ago.
if it's to be believed, it's so easy. you distill it, and you have a copy in 2 weeks, isn't that what China is doing? so 2 weeks from now, we should have one.
This is amazing to witness.
Moonshot open sourcing Kimi K3, a frontier AI and other components really means we are getting abundant AI for all of humanity.
Kudos to Moonshot for truly being what OpenAI should have been.
Fable-level and frontier AI should be open source and available to everyone for free.
> Kudos to Moonshot for truly being what OpenAI should have been.
Kudos to Moonshot for making these weights available for download. Lets not fool ourselves and claim these are "open source" by any understanding of the concept though, there are usage restrictions (even if you download them) and also training data isn't clearly broken down either, nor it it actually using a FOSS license.
> Kudos to Moonshot for making these weights available for download. Lets not fool ourselves and claim these are "open source" by any understanding of the concept though, there are usage restrictions (even if you download them) and also training data isn't clearly broken down either, nor it it actually using a FOSS license.
They will probably never release the training data because that represents a large part of their competitive moat. The same is true of US companies (Google, OpenAI, Meta etc) none of which has released the full training data for its open models.
They use private datasets that cost a lot to acquire, synthetic datasets and a lot copyrighted material for which they don't have licensing.
What matters most is that, with the necessary hardware, I can download a near frontier model, run it and modify it however I want. The other concerns you mentioned are just noise. And if my company is generating $20 million in revenue or serving 100 million users, it can probably afford a relatively inexpensive commercial license.
Back of the envelope calculation (could be off, correct me if I am)
If you are a large enough company that spends million+ on inference a month, it makes sense to buy a GB300 rack ($6M on top range from what I could find) which has 20.7 TB. Since the model is mixed trained (MXFP4), you would need less than 10% of the rack's memory to serve the full model. Aggregate HBM bandwidth: 576 TB/s. You can run over 6000 parallel agentic workflows (each with ~100k context on average) at ~30 tok/s.
Assuming the annual amortization+electricity at $1.5M/year and about 50% average annual utilization, you get less than 60 cents (USD) per million output token, for a frontier model with plenty of capacity to share, all your data never leaving premises and well over an order of magnitude cheaper!
As long as a company believes that the openweight models will continue to get more capable and 'AI is here to stay', this model provides the first solid footing for a decision to just buy a rack.
And hire 2 or 3 dev ops to keep it running ?
That another 400 to 700k.
It becomes your problem and not someone else’s. However, I don’t trust hosted LLMs for anything that needs to be private.
There will be cloud/SaaS vendors who have lower cost of labor/capital due to automation and financing terms.
Having these models in the open caps the inference margin.
Where do I sign up to get 200k/yr to keep one rack running? Sounds like an incredibly chill job
Apparently it’s going to take the 3 of us to do this, mate. Going to get so much reading done.
> However, I don’t trust hosted LLMs for anything that needs to be private.
Why not? Do you trust AWS with things that need to be private?
More than I trust frontier labs. AWS doesn't need to recoup 9 digits USD of capex
> And hire 2 or 3 dev ops to keep it running
Not a devops but I'd say one full time is already too many.
Just let it manage itself, what could go wrong! :)
I think the licensing that would likely apply to a company that's able to afford ~$6M rack and the associated infrastructure muddies this somewhat
As far as I can tell, license fees are only applicable if you have more than 20m USD/month revenue from services provided using the model, or serve more than 100m users.
Also open sourced a bunch of infra to go with it.
Anyone who claims open source and open weights models are "decel" needs to get their head checked
https://github.com/MoonshotAI/MoonEP
https://github.com/kvcache-ai/AgentEnv
https://github.com/MoonshotAI/FlashKDA
To me its clear that it is decel
the only reason other labs can catch up is because the frontier labs can be distilled, and they siphon a % of the labs' revenue to reinvest into the next iteration
full accel would mean nationalizing the big 2 labs and locking in manhattan project style until RSI
only if you only get your news from main stream business press and Big Lab propaganda channels
There's no chance K3 is a distill of Fable, it came out way too soon after the limited fable release to be feasbile.
If you look at all of the top ML conferences, chinese labs contribute way more to advances in ML than "Open"AI and Anthropic: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMachineGod/comments/1pi4q7f/pape...
This K3 release just helped every other lab on the planet stay in the race by making it possible for them to build on top of it, placing them at the frontier starting line instead of having to spend billions of their own dollars and risking it all to attempt to catch up.
The open source contributions I linked to above will move the whole field forward and reduce the costs of training and inference for everyone.
Open science compounds on it self, every new advancement pushes the field forwards and opens up new grounds for future improvements.
This comment would be much better without the second line
I'm not sure I understand the case for open-source models being decelerationist, is this it?
Decel:
- Potentially reduces investor appetite for funding big labs.
- More risk of powerful AI getting in bad hands -> more regulation.
Accel:
- More competition so big labs can't rest on laurels.
- More research in open, so all labs can accrete advancements faster.
I feel like open-source = acceleration has a much more clear argument. (and how bad would deceleration be in any case?)
I think the argument is that decentralization leads to deceleration because it means less centralized funding and data. Those are the two primary ingredients for accel.
The problem with the decel/accel rhetoric is that it lacks nuance.
If your worldview is “most of the progress is made by closed labs, then open labs fast-follow” (which isn’t implausible given the documented distillation of Fable), and further that open labs cannot make make meaningful progress vs the closed labs except by fast-following and that they won’t pick up the ability to make progress after the closed labs are gone, then driving closed labs out of business slows down overall progress.
I think it's pretty hard to hold that worldview: Anthropic couldn't ship a reasoning model until they copied DeepSeek R1's homework, and they've all copied DS-style super-sparse MoEs at this point too.
I think it's basically open weights => more inference competition => less profit from inference => less training competition
> less training competition
I think you meant less research and experiments in big labs because they don't get all the AI money.
Training is expensive, but they also have more than 10 000 of employees combined and they cost a lot of money.
Open Source models decelerate growth of closed AI. For people who think (or want) AI = closed_AI then that argument has weight. Good luck getting them to update their priors.
Open source AI is actually a lot less "powerful" than genuine frontier models, i.e. it has a much tighter inherent capability ceiling. This is "decelerationist" from a purely AGI-pilled point of view but it's actually great if you're worried about a capabilities arms race putting AI Safety at severe risk.
Kimi K3 is plausibly a lot less dangerous than a totally jailbroken ChatGPT/Gemini/Claude Sonnet (let alone Opus or Fable!) and it's quite deeply weird how no one seems to be calling for those models to be banned or restrained by further regulation. Why the double standard against the less concerning (but more efficient!) open weight models?
Do you think they are inherently less powerful? I'd imagined that closed labs have a head start / more funding so the open labs are playing catch-up.
Is there a world where open source models end up at the frontier, or do you think there are structural/first-principles reasons why this won't happen?
If you're targeting widespread local/on prem deployment which is what many open weight models are doing, that inherently limits your scale in terms of total model weights/inference-time compute compared to running in a few centralized datacenters. A centralized model will always be able to leverage a larger scale of deployment, placing it much closer to the genuine "frontier".
Why? Absolutely correct, especially considering the position of the person they're referring to
I know it's a hard ask on this site, but I need you to start parsing content and not tone. It was a helpful bit of context, even if it was a bit vitriolic.
Why should I waste time parsing content and not tone? Why can't the commenter just avoid the tone? It even saves time since you can write less!
Why?
License: https://huggingface.co/moonshotai/Kimi-K3/blob/main/LICENSE
> If the Licensee or any of its affiliates operates a Model as a Service business, and the aggregate revenue of the Licensee and its affiliates exceeds 20 million US dollars (or the equivalent in other currencies) in total over any consecutive 12 months, the Licensee must enter into a separate agreement with Moonshot AI before using the Software or its derivative works for any commercial purpose.
+ the existing 100 million monthly active users, or more than 20 million US dollars for commercial products have to name Kimi clause
Kimi 2.6 had the same janky license: https://huggingface.co/moonshotai/Kimi-K2.6/blob/main/LICENS... - looks like they've been doing that at least as far back as K2.
The models they released in 2025 - https://huggingface.co/moonshotai/models - were clean MIT. They started doing the "modified MIT" thing in January 2026 with moonshotai/Kimi-K2-Thinking
To be clear, the restriction on "Model as a Service" past $20M yearly revenue is new to K3. K2.x had the attribution requirement for any commercial use with more than $20M monthly revenue.
Good catch, thanks.
In what way was the license "janky"? Moonshot isn't a trillion dollar US behemoth. If these terms allow it to release near frontier models with open weights, so startups and anyone with enough hardware can use them, while charging only companies with more than $20 million in revenue or 100 million users, that seems like a reasonable trade off.
I use the term "janky" for any time someone releases something under a supposedly open source license that doesn't comply with the OSI definition.
"Modified MIT" is the perfect example of that.
I'm not saying it's unreasonable, or that you can't release under such a license - it's your software, use whatever license you like!
I'll call it "janky" when you do.
Reasonable for people at the bottom of the tech pyramid. Certainly for startup guys this is heaven sent.
For people at the top of the tech pyramid, I could totally see why they'd want to put an end to all this "Open Source LLM" stuff.
I wonder how they'll figure out who to target for litigation when this license is violated.
How many companies host and serve models via API and have a $20M+ revenue? Going to be pretty straightforward to catch offenders.
Software licenses aren't enforced through litigation as much as they are enforced through the _threat_ of litigation and legal risk. In other words, pretty much every company pays lawyers to minimize legal risk. Those lawyers inevitably look at all the contracts, agreements, and software licenses, and tell the C-suite what to do in order to keep their legal exposure as low as possible. "Don't violate other companies' IP," is pretty low-hanging fruit in those conversations.
It is a very rare (and ballsy, and perhaps incompetent) company that ignores their lawyers' recommendations to adhere to the letter of all of the software licenses they are bound to.
They haven't litigated the last public non-compliance... Despite that one being extremely public. So probably not at all for now.
> They haven't litigated the last public non-compliance
What was it?
Cursor was thought to be but they were later found to be using an authorized provider [1]
1 - https://x.com/Kimi_Moonshot/status/2035074972943831491?lang=...
Maybe because a non public agreement was in place?
Hah, so much for "open weights" :D Fair enough, they're at least downloadable, shame they didn't end up being actually open, nor open source, the community had really high hopes for this. But again, still available for download, so better than nothing else I suppose.
Open source projects frequently have separate commercial licenses no? This isn't abnormal.
No, I don't know a single project I'd call "open source" (as understood by the FOSS community) that restricts what you can do with it, that'd make it very much "not open source" as you're discriminating against specific persons/groups/fields of endeavor.
GPL licenses also restrict what you can do with it...
Beyond reciprocity which is the entire point of that license, what restrictions does it come with? I guess you could say that it has a restriction of adding new restrictions, but surely that's not what you're talking about?
> we build a self-evolving, hierarchically organized knowledge graph that agents continuously expand through web-scale exploration across knowledge-intensive and coding domains
That's interesting!
It's funny that we've finally returned to tanh activation functions, time is a circle.
Wow this is fascinating enough that I’m actually going to read tfa lol
knowledge graph guided task synthesis. very cool! i have long wondered about the "how do you get good coverage of all the tasks" problem.
maybe some interesting theoretical work there around the rate of production of new knowledge itself and various mechanisms (human approaches, mechanistic approaches, etc).
What would be the current best method to fine-tune it for my own specific agentic tasks? LoRA + DPO? GRPO? Something else?
LoRA + SFT, but it'll be big - better to wait for a finetuning API from one of the providers, I wouldn't jump straight to RL or off-policy pseudo-RL like DPO.
Does anyone know if a torrent is available? I think it would take quite a while to download 1.5tb from their servers.
Can someone explain what are teachers in Multi-Teacher On-Policy Distillation? I can imagine math, coding and other verifiable domains, but they also have biology? Is it where distillation from bigger models come in?
What would it take to get an American open model to compete with this?
Latest "big" release from any of the bigger American lab must have been GPT-OSS-120b I think? Released ~summer 2025, so pretty much two years ago. Doesn't seem like it'll happen by itself, so something either forcing their hand figuratively, or something forcing their hand literally.
Personally I was wishing/hoping for one of the recent Gemma releases to be in the ~100B class at least, but sadly Google is keeping that all for themselves.
NVIDIA-Nemotron-3-Ultra-550B-A55B was released in June 4th 2026 and I think it was the largest open US model until thinking machine's Inkling (975B) was released a couple of weeks ago.
the longer i read this comment the wronger it gets
August 2025.
Bah, of course, thanks :)
Yeah, besides that, the only big other open source US model that was worth looking at was Inkling (975B params), Jul 15, 2026.
https://thinkingmachines.ai/news/introducing-inkling/
if it's to be believed, it's so easy. you distill it, and you have a copy in 2 weeks, isn't that what China is doing? so 2 weeks from now, we should have one.
An act of G̶o̶d̶ Congress?
Something beyond my imagination
This is amazing to witness. Moonshot open sourcing Kimi K3, a frontier AI and other components really means we are getting abundant AI for all of humanity.
Kudos to Moonshot for truly being what OpenAI should have been.
Fable-level and frontier AI should be open source and available to everyone for free.
> Kudos to Moonshot for truly being what OpenAI should have been.
Kudos to Moonshot for making these weights available for download. Lets not fool ourselves and claim these are "open source" by any understanding of the concept though, there are usage restrictions (even if you download them) and also training data isn't clearly broken down either, nor it it actually using a FOSS license.
> Kudos to Moonshot for making these weights available for download. Lets not fool ourselves and claim these are "open source" by any understanding of the concept though, there are usage restrictions (even if you download them) and also training data isn't clearly broken down either, nor it it actually using a FOSS license.
They will probably never release the training data because that represents a large part of their competitive moat. The same is true of US companies (Google, OpenAI, Meta etc) none of which has released the full training data for its open models.
They use private datasets that cost a lot to acquire, synthetic datasets and a lot copyrighted material for which they don't have licensing.
What matters most is that, with the necessary hardware, I can download a near frontier model, run it and modify it however I want. The other concerns you mentioned are just noise. And if my company is generating $20 million in revenue or serving 100 million users, it can probably afford a relatively inexpensive commercial license.
Is this p-hacking?
I would want to see three things before drawing strong conclusions:
End-to-end tokens/sec and cost on realistic coding agent trajectories, including tool outputs and retries, not isolated decode benchmarks.
Cache hit rates and prefill cost for branching, multi-turn sessions.
Router-load distributions after post-training, where expert collapse or specialization problems often show up.