The stock, and subsequently the stock market, is so detached from reality. For the life of me, I can’t understand why investors will literally put a 100x premium on Musk, and the things he touches. I feel like I’m living in some alternative universe.
SpaceX had this similar mystique to where owning a private share was something rich people bragged about like having a rare Lamborghini.
A lot of these modern bubble stocks are underpinned by a bunch of intangible collectibility reasons that realistically only exist because of a huge cash glut in the US stock market.
Maybe it goes on for a long time, but realistically as baby boomers start drawing down on their retirement portfolios and/or dying there's reason to believe money will start leaving the markets in the next 20ish years.
You seem to live in the real reality, and presumably people care about what you think there because it’s actually real. So why not enlighten us, help explain it to us deluded people? Or you can just be rude and vague.
The stock market is not definitionally "reality" in the sense being used. It's perfectly fine to look at the stock market and consider it "detached from reality", in the sense being said.
I live in a country (Norway) which has been a early-adopter market for EVs. In 2014 Tesla cars were endemic, you could see them everywhere. I was a big believer in Tesla cars.
But things obviously changed. We're still a lead market as far as Tesla sales go, but right now it is just another car. There's absolutely no rationale to automatically go for Tesla.
Which is why I find it incredibly difficult to see how Tesla is valued. The Tesla market cap is more than all other EV producers combined.
Musk evangelists will now yell "Self-driving cars! AI! Robotaxi!", and rationalize that the value behind Musk is potential. The potential that his products will be some fantastical thing in the future.
It's not like his checking account has $1T in it, this is just a technicality that sums up all of the hypothetical value of the shares he owns in companies.
If he actually tried to sell it and turn it into cash it would be less than $1T.
This strategy is not a traditional loan with interest and regular payments. If you try to live on regular loans it doesn't make any sense. It's a scheme mostly only available to HNW people where they repay upon death in certain tax loophole ways.
You won't pay taxes but you will pay interest. Most forms of value (real estate, gold, stocks, your car) you can borrow against in the USA, but the interest you pay almost always makes it a dumb idea.
If you borrow against it you still have to pay interest. If he somehow found someone to loan him $1T, which would probably be practically impossible, the interest would make the total amount he got less than $1T.
SpaceX will be listed on QQQ in the next fifteen days. There are only around 4.2% shares publicly available for trading, (about $75 billion out of a $1.75T market cap). This means passive funds that include QQQ will be forced to buy and compete over a very small sliver of the total shares (estimated at around $25 billion)
The exchange regulations have just been inexplicably loosened a month ago to allow this circus to happen. Beforehand, a company would have to show profitability and stability and wouldn't be allowed to be listed on an index for at least a year after its IPO.
So there is no wonder why the price is as it is. Perfect scam for wallstreet and the little guy get screwed so even better.
I've read somewhere that even some janitors / lunch ladies became millionaires from their shares. Looking then at the great performance of some other stocks, I really wonder where we're headed
Musk has killed hundreds of thousands of people with his reckless dismantling of USAID (https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/how-elon-musk-killed-hun...) and actively promotes white supremacy and race riots on Twitter. The Georges Ruggiu of social media.
Meanwhile, here in our little tech bubble, we pretend it's not happening -- that he's not spending half the day amplifying some of the literal worst people on Earth and blathering about how immigrants are coming to rape our culture. Just focus on the IPO. Don't look behind the curtain.
Where is a good chunk of this newfound money going to go? Into the pockets of AfD, Reform, and other far-right monsters around the world.
It's all just... abhorrent. Beyond words. Regretfully, I start to understand the state of society that can foment revolution. Never before have I felt such impotent fury at the state of things.
I can only hope his career ends as Ruggiu's once did: in shackles in front of an international tribunal.
The stock, and subsequently the stock market, is so detached from reality. For the life of me, I can’t understand why investors will literally put a 100x premium on Musk, and the things he touches. I feel like I’m living in some alternative universe.
SpaceX had this similar mystique to where owning a private share was something rich people bragged about like having a rare Lamborghini.
A lot of these modern bubble stocks are underpinned by a bunch of intangible collectibility reasons that realistically only exist because of a huge cash glut in the US stock market.
Maybe it goes on for a long time, but realistically as baby boomers start drawing down on their retirement portfolios and/or dying there's reason to believe money will start leaving the markets in the next 20ish years.
Have you watched a Starship launch? The more I understand the incredible feats of engineering they are performing the more bullish I become.
It doesn't make money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X6YzlY_8tM
Starship is still in development. Do you think the next generation of the iPhone is a waste of time because it doesn't make money yet?
The stock price reflects the potential of the business in the future as well as its current concrete value.
Space X is first and foremost being valued on their AI data centers.
Starship and anything space related is like 5% of the valuation.
There is no reason to be surprised investors aren't always that rational, though it is weird how extra giddy they are to simp for Musk in particular.
Company literally does not make money, and his other major company is getting dumpstered in its market too.
[flagged]
You seem to live in the real reality, and presumably people care about what you think there because it’s actually real. So why not enlighten us, help explain it to us deluded people? Or you can just be rude and vague.
[flagged]
The stock market is not definitionally "reality" in the sense being used. It's perfectly fine to look at the stock market and consider it "detached from reality", in the sense being said.
[flagged]
5% float and index inclusion. Basically controlling both the supply and demand levers.
I live in a country (Norway) which has been a early-adopter market for EVs. In 2014 Tesla cars were endemic, you could see them everywhere. I was a big believer in Tesla cars.
But things obviously changed. We're still a lead market as far as Tesla sales go, but right now it is just another car. There's absolutely no rationale to automatically go for Tesla.
Which is why I find it incredibly difficult to see how Tesla is valued. The Tesla market cap is more than all other EV producers combined.
Musk evangelists will now yell "Self-driving cars! AI! Robotaxi!", and rationalize that the value behind Musk is potential. The potential that his products will be some fantastical thing in the future.
> In 2014 Tesla cars were endemic, you could see them everywhere
Tesla sells like 8x the number of cars in Norway today than they did in 2014.
If you're right, that's great news for you, as you can make tons of money buying Spacex puts
If the market is detached from reality then you very much cannot. It's like you weren't even listening.
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- John Maynard Keynes
This quote refers to shorting; it's not applicable to every bear position anyone ever attempts to take. You won't go insolvent buying puts.
Not if people continue to have the 100x premium on Musk. Puts only make sense if the market returns to rationality.
SpaceX will cocoon the planet with next level new accelerated technology the way baseload grid electricity supply took 300 years to achieve.
Did they teach you to write words so vacuous in your marketing undergrad?
In a word, baloney.
What, exactly, is the "next level new accelerated technology"? That's a lot of hype-y buzzwords, but what does it mean? What's the actual technology?
Starlink? I mean, we already have internet. Is Starlink that much better, to deserve this glowing description?
Or is it some other tech? If so, what is it?
If you can write that glowingly, can you put some substance behind it? Or is it just hype?
Congratulations to the US. I'm sure it must be nice to have a trillionaire
I wish my country had a trillionaire. That would give my day to day life meaning
It's not like his checking account has $1T in it, this is just a technicality that sums up all of the hypothetical value of the shares he owns in companies.
If he actually tried to sell it and turn it into cash it would be less than $1T.
Yeah but he can borrow against it and not pay any taxes.
Same as anyone else with a HELOC, asset secured loan, etc. You have to pay loans back, which is why they're not taxed as income.
Do people do that? Can I e.g. borrow against my assets and not pay any taxes? Curious to learn more.
I mean people get mortgages and carry credit card balances and do margin trading and get helocs. If those are taxable I might need to call the IRS.
For the uber rich it is called "buy-borrow-die".
And this is why the idea of a wealth tax has so many tres comas types up in arms.
When you get a loan you don't pay taxes. You pay taxes on the income used to pay it back, or the gains when you sell an asset to pay it back.
Yeah I’m confused about this part. Is there some loophole where they never have to pay the loan back? Otherwise they’d be taxed at that point.
Taxed on repaying a loan?
This strategy is not a traditional loan with interest and regular payments. If you try to live on regular loans it doesn't make any sense. It's a scheme mostly only available to HNW people where they repay upon death in certain tax loophole ways.
These loans still have interest and regular payments. They are not like your mortgage or credit cards, but interest and minimums still apply.
You won't pay taxes but you will pay interest. Most forms of value (real estate, gold, stocks, your car) you can borrow against in the USA, but the interest you pay almost always makes it a dumb idea.
If you borrow against it you still have to pay interest. If he somehow found someone to loan him $1T, which would probably be practically impossible, the interest would make the total amount he got less than $1T.
Correct, he couldn't borrow $1T from one person with $1T as collateral.
If it's so worthless, let me have it instead of him.
It's more like "he was already rich before, but now more of his wealth is countable".
SpaceX will be listed on QQQ in the next fifteen days. There are only around 4.2% shares publicly available for trading, (about $75 billion out of a $1.75T market cap). This means passive funds that include QQQ will be forced to buy and compete over a very small sliver of the total shares (estimated at around $25 billion)
The exchange regulations have just been inexplicably loosened a month ago to allow this circus to happen. Beforehand, a company would have to show profitability and stability and wouldn't be allowed to be listed on an index for at least a year after its IPO.
So there is no wonder why the price is as it is. Perfect scam for wallstreet and the little guy get screwed so even better.
I've read somewhere that even some janitors / lunch ladies became millionaires from their shares. Looking then at the great performance of some other stocks, I really wonder where we're headed
I would be surprised if janitors get shares. This is Musk we’re talking about.
Spacex gave lots of low level employees stocks. Either on top of, or as a payroll deduction ESPP.
Something like ~500 new millionaires is what i've read on x.
Musk has killed hundreds of thousands of people with his reckless dismantling of USAID (https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/how-elon-musk-killed-hun...) and actively promotes white supremacy and race riots on Twitter. The Georges Ruggiu of social media.
Meanwhile, here in our little tech bubble, we pretend it's not happening -- that he's not spending half the day amplifying some of the literal worst people on Earth and blathering about how immigrants are coming to rape our culture. Just focus on the IPO. Don't look behind the curtain.
Where is a good chunk of this newfound money going to go? Into the pockets of AfD, Reform, and other far-right monsters around the world.
It's all just... abhorrent. Beyond words. Regretfully, I start to understand the state of society that can foment revolution. Never before have I felt such impotent fury at the state of things.
I can only hope his career ends as Ruggiu's once did: in shackles in front of an international tribunal.