Naphtha shortages in Japan

(nippon.com)

101 points | by takakaze 6 hours ago ago

61 comments

  • guessmyname 5 hours ago

    As someone who grew up eating Calbee snacks, I think they’ll be fine.

    People from my generation aren’t buying Calbee because the bag is colorful. They’re buying it because it’s Calbee and they already know what they’re getting. The packaging could be black and white and I’d still recognize it instantly.

    The only people I could see being briefly confused are younger consumers. Japanese packaging tends to be very colorful, so we’re all conditioned to identify products partly by color. But people adapt quickly. In fact, a black-and-white Calbee bag might end up standing out more on a crowded supermarket shelf than yet another brightly colored package.

    There’s also a chance this ends up being a net positive. If simpler packaging lowers costs and sales stay the same, why go back? Japanese consumers are feeling inflation more than they have in decades, and companies are under pressure too. Cutting costs in a place customers barely notice seems a lot smarter than shrinking the product or raising prices again.

    • emodendroket 2 hours ago

      I think the dialysis supply shortage may be less of a charming quirk than the potato chip bags.

      • thrownthatway an hour ago

        Imagine that.

        The Ayatollah Khamenei held the lives of dialysis patients in his hand.

        And the whole world was just like ”better not upset him”.

        • emodendroket an hour ago

          I wouldn't say the present strategy worked a lot better so maybe the whole world had a point.

          • thrownthatway an hour ago

            I never made that argument.

            I just tend to thing bullies should be crushed rather than appeased.

            • kdheiwns 3 minutes ago

              That's how the whole world is feeling about America now, yes. Nobody outside of America and Israel were ever remotely bothered by Iran. Especially not Japan, which had a good relationship with Iran going back a century. It's really just absurd how America decided to attack a partner of Japan and damage our economy so much for zero benefit whatsoever.

            • defrost 9 minutes ago

              So, dialysis patients had their supplies on a regular basis, and then the Ayatollah Khamenei was assassinated (hard to get more crushed) during peace negotiations, and now dialysis patients are at risk.

              Seems like being a bully achieved very little .. why tear up the original hard won agreement that allowed inspection and kept the uranium enrichment in check in the first place?

            • vkou 13 minutes ago

              So, how are you planning on dealing with Trump and friends? Appeasement clearly isn't working.

    • rpozarickij an hour ago

      > If simpler packaging lowers costs and sales stay the same

      In reality packaging is a very big part of marketing. People are drawn by vivid and bright colors, which is especially relevant in the modern world where unfortunately so many of us are living in a permanent hyper-stimulated state. It's hard to ignore well-designed packaging with tastefully chosen colors even if you're someone who is mindful about their eating/consumption choices and you know that what's inside that packaging is totally different from what you see from the outside.

    • wartywhoa23 2 hours ago

      Of course there is always an advocate for every little incremental step of the deliberate chaos that the world's helmsmen have been steering into.

      OBEY.

    • BoorishBears 4 hours ago

      Did you actually read the article past the hero image?

      > Teikoku Databank has identified 52 Japanese companies using naphtha to make basic chemical products like ethylene, synthetic rubber, and PVC resin.

      > The chemicals, petroleum, and coal products manufacturing sector is most vulnerable to naphtha price rises and shortages; of the 4,700 companies in this sector, 67.2% are integrated into the naphtha supply chain.

      • no-name-here 3 hours ago

        From the official guidelines https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

        > Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that".

        May be good to edit your comment to remove the first sentence.

        • BoorishBears an hour ago

          I won't.

          • thrownthatway an hour ago

            Go to your room. No dinner. And don’t come out until you’re ready to act like a reasonable person.

          • ThePowerOfFuet 35 minutes ago

            Appropriate username is appropriate.

  • nogajun 4 hours ago

    As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production, leading to a shortage of daily necessities. The fact that Calbee’s snack packaging has turned monochrome is a direct consequence of this. The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision.

    What is even more alarming is that more than half of the Japanese public supports the Takaichi administration, which is implementing such absurd policies.

    • tzs 3 hours ago

      Google is telling me that there were production drops in 2025, but it was (1) due to an oversupply caused by Japanese ethylene and benzene exports fell due new plants in China and an increase in cheaper exports from the US to Asian markets, and (2) domestic gasoline consumption dropping.

      Everything I can find says the shortages now are due to the Iran war.

      • thrownthatway an hour ago

        > Google is telling me

        Google is not an authoritative source. If we wanted to Google it we could do that ourselves.

        Try bringing a substantive argument with references to the table.

        Are you saying domestic policy and financial / tax incentives do not affect local manufacturing and markets?

        Because that doesn’t sound like the sort of argument any reasonable sport of person would intentionally make.

        As an Australian, I’ll note they our local federal government has, and this has always been their shtick, adopted the view that they can tax the nation to prosperity. That they can incentivise our way to productivity.

        In practice this has only ever resulted in a demonstration of waste and a path to misalignment incentives.

        But surely top-down financial policy will work this time.

    • pibaker 3 hours ago

      > The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision.

      Do you have a citation for this? This sounds insane. I can't even think of any good faith motivation for doing this, other than to cover up the shortage and to keep the public pacified.

      • flakiness 3 hours ago

        > https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASV5N32MVV5NUTFK005M.html

        The title reads "PM's Office calls Calbee's response a "stunt"; Emphasizes naphtha sufficiency, including intermediate products".

        Asahi Shinbun is one of the established newspapers.

        Also at the end (translated by google):

        > "The government interviewed Calbee about the situation on the 12th. According to a government official, they explained to Calbee that there is a sufficient amount available in terms of total volume. Sources close to the Prime Minister expressed concern over the ripple effects, stating, "Calbee's reaction is an overreaction. Their announcement will cause other companies to become anxious as well." However, Calbee maintains its stance, with a public relations representative stating, "This is a measure to ensure the stable supply of our products."

        So it's relatively mild "nudge", if you compare it to the current US administration.

      • amake 2 hours ago

        > I can't even think of any good faith motivation for doing this, other than to cover up the shortage and to keep the public pacified

        Yes

    • alephnerd 3 hours ago

      > As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production

      Not exactly. Japan only produces around 40% of it's naphtha domestically, with 40% from the Middle East and the other 20% from other sources. Much of the pain arose from supply shock for the 40% sources from the ME.

      That said, much of the pain around naphata is transitional, as most Japanese imports of naphtha have now shifted away from the Middle East to Algeria, the US, and India [0][1].

      Mind you, this is eating significantly into margins, but it is survivable as this isn't Japan's first black swan event of similar calibre - the late 2000s and early 2010s oil price shock occurred during a much more difficult macro environment for Japan, and at least according to ONG analysts [2] (behind login, as most actionable commodities news is) Japan has the reserves needed for around a year of production assuming Japan didn't begin shifting sourcing, which it did.

      I'd recommend reading Overseas Energy Investment of Korea and Japan: How did Two East Asian Resources-Rare Industrial Giants Respond to Energy Security Challenges by Oh Seong-ik [3] to learn more about the Korean and Japanese energy security policy - both are using the same methodology, strategies, and contract structures, and despite public rhetoric, a large portion of younger Koreans targeting the Blue House and/or high finance still try to attend Waseda for their undergrad if SKY, KAIST, or Ewha doesn't work out.

      [0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/jap...

      [1] - https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-marke...

      [2] - https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/280064...

      [3] - https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-0285-9

      • Tor3 3 hours ago

        The situation may stabilize over time as Japan gradually manages to shift sources. However, the situation has been and is serious, the Calbee issue isn't really what matters of course. As someone who's currently in the process of building a new house, I'm in constant touch with my construction company, and they tell me that there are tons of procurement problems because of the naphta shortage. Some companies have stopped taking orders altogether. We're lucky in that our construction company managed to secure what we need just in time, those just a couple of weeks after us have problems. We are mostly fine, except for some stuff, which, while important, can be handled. Or delayed, at least.

        • alephnerd 2 hours ago

          Absolutely, it is serious and will take months to stabilize, but this isn't the first nor the last shock like this that will arise.

          The 2022 Russia-Ukraine War led to a temporary shock like this as did the Iraqi Civil War and the subsequent surge in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

          Life is filled with black swans and it truly sucks at the individual level, but at the macro-level this is transitionary.

          Also, for the Japanese government, the housing pain is less worrisome than it's downstream impact on cracking.

    • HDThoreaun 4 hours ago

      How much naphtha is used to color a bag of chips? I figured it was like considerably less than a milliliter. Is that really a significant cost even if naptha prices 10x?

      • rtpg 4 hours ago

        It sounds like this isn't a cost problem but a supply problem. At one point a 20% reduction in inputs has to affect some output.

        • taneq 4 hours ago

          Guess they'll have to use a smaller font.

    • yieldcrv 3 hours ago

      the absurd policy being that they want a military and a birth rate

      sooooo controversial, super right-wing right there

  • georgefloid 8 minutes ago

    The techdorks writing that "Japan can package all the snacks they want b/c they use less oil than the US (for transportation)" are exactly proofing my point: As lokg as oil == gasoline ==cars ==bad, oil == plastics == packaing == good, we won't get rid of this excess of overproduced, single-use instant-throwaway packaging.

  • dnnddidiej 2 hours ago

    They had a chance to embrace the black/white medium for somethink striking and attention grabbing but looks like a bad photocopy of the original packaging.

    • ssl-3 2 hours ago

      Sure. They could have even taken cues from Google's Material Design, which emphasizes monochromaticity.

      But Material Design is such boring dredge at this point that I think I actually prefer the lazy photocopy style that is shown instead. :)

  • minarul22 4 minutes ago

    sumsung.com

  • Danox an hour ago

    Those bags look pretty good to me no nonsense color.

  • ronnier 3 hours ago

    Hn has at least one article in the top 25 related to Japan every day, even about the most obscure topics.

    • Tor3 2 hours ago

      Naphta may sound obscure, but it's the base for a ton of products. I actually had no idea, until the building / construction companies around here started getting into serious trouble (I wrote about that in another comment).

      • timr 16 minutes ago

        It is obscure. Naptha doesn’t exist - it’s a catch-all name for a bunch of different petroleum byproducts that are around a particular density, some of which are rare in the market, and others of which are not. Any news article about this subject is almost by definition clueless reporting, because anyone actually knowledgeable would respond to a question about “naptha shortages” with “be more specific”.

        It’s amusing to see it here because it’s kind of an inside baseball topic for the Japanese television media. The Japanese media has been yammering on about shortages in between fear mongering about bear attacks, and both stories are about equally based in fact (i.e. based loosely in truth, wildly exaggerated, but reported mainly because it gets people worried). But of course, unlike bear attacks, this can be linked to the Iran situation, and so it pops up here.

  • jnakano89 4 hours ago

    Buried near the end: Nisshin Seifun Welna stopped printing cooking time on their spaghetti packaging tape. There's a Japanese consumer somewhere squinting at the package trying to remember if it was 8 mins or 10 mins.

    This is what "globalized supply chain" looks like up close.

    • pibaker 3 hours ago

      What is the alternative to imported fossil fuel product for a country like Japan?

      • Arn_Thor 3 hours ago

        If they (and the rest of us for that matter) weren't burning so much of it, there'd be more left over for other uses.

        (with the obvious caveat that less demand means less production, which would mean there wouldn't be a lot of surplus. But in a world where we don't burn so much oil, it probably wouldn't be worth either party closing the Strait anyway...)

      • ktallett 41 minutes ago

        Japan need to use far less of it. Their levels of waste in plastic and so on, is still ridiculously high in comparison with many places.

    • Barrin92 3 hours ago

      >This is what "globalized supply chain" looks like up close.

      If that's the extent of it I'd say they're doing relatively fine. People have been taking these events like covid as some glaring warning of globalized supply chains but given that we've had like ten major supply chain shocks in half as many years I feel like the supply chains are good actually.

      If you told me ten years ago that North Koreans are fighting in Europe, Russia's oil facilities are being hit by drones, Houthis are launching rockets into space and the largest trade route in the world is blocked I'd have guessed it's worse than 4% inflation and Japan's running out of printer ink

  • burgerone 2 hours ago

    Very nicely factual and non-clickbait article for once.

  • Synaesthesia 3 hours ago

    Maybe the point of the Iran war was to boost the US economy, relative to East Asia, which is dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas, while the US is an exporter.

    I mean look who benefits from this, arms companies and oil/gas companies are having a bonanza.

    • the_gipsy 21 minutes ago

      The point was to stop oil trades of "petro non-dollars", just like Venezuela.

      If countries start getting away with selling oil in other currencies, then they wouldn't funnel back all these vasts amounts of dollars into the S&P 500 and the American economy would collapse.

    • dnnddidiej 2 hours ago

      Or makes ROTW more resiliant. I sped up my solar, battery and EV buy because of this for example.

      The panels will land in ROTW.

  • johnea 5 hours ago

    After studying Japanese language and culture for the last 15 years, and spending about 6 months there in total, I would say they have a massive over-packaging problem in general.

    I've never seen a place throw away more plastics than in Japan.

    If the current oil situation forces a reworking of this system, I'd say all in all, that's an upside.

    • gryson 5 hours ago

      Japan is nowhere near the worst for plastic waste per capita, and it has very high recycling rates.

      Rely more on statistics and less on personal observation.

      • no-name-here 3 hours ago

        Even better to provide a source for each statistic.

        Japan has about half the plastic waste rate, yes [1].

        However, the top recycling search result claims Japan only has a 19% recycling rate compared to the US’s 24% [2], but you might have been referring to a specific recycling type?

        [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/plastic-waste-per-capita

        [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recycling_rates_by_country

        • gryson 3 hours ago

          You're greatly misunderstanding that second link: that's the breakdown of what happens to collected municipal waste within each country (notice they all add up to 100% for each country). That says nothing about total amounts of plastic waste collected or recycled.

          See Table 1 here and its sources:

          https://circulareconomy.earth/publications/how-japan-is-usin...

          Japan recycles about 24% of its used consumer plastics into new products, while the US recycles about 8%. That's NOT factoring in thermal recycling, which Japan is far better at than the US.

      • armada651 4 hours ago

        Since very few types of plastic are actually recyclable most of it ends up being burned despite being separately collected, so I don't think you can simply discount the recycled plastic from the plastic waste being produced.

        • gryson 4 hours ago

          Japan burns about half of its collected plastic via thermal recycling (recovering the energy) and recycles about a third into new products.

          The key point is that Japan recycles 85% of its plastic waste, which is excellent compared with a country like the US that recycles about 10%. And, the per capita plastic use in the US is far more than in Japan.

          This whole point pops up on the internet so frequently because tourists go to Japan and see lots of individually packaged items in supermarkets and convenience stores. Yes, there is room for improvement there, but overall the situation is not as bad as many countries and probably doesn't deserve the attention it gets.

    • helterskelter 3 hours ago

      Nippon packaging

      So dressed like a lover

      Frigid winter day

    • dangus 5 hours ago

      Japan can package up all the snacks they want, they still use far less oil per capita than the USA.

      Japan: Approximately 28% of all passenger kilometers are traveled by rail

      United States: Rail travel accounts for only about 0.25% of passenger kilometers

      Remember: when you drive your 30mpg car to work, 20 miles down the freeway, alone in your vehicle by yourself, you are burning over a gallon of refined petroleum product every single day. You can make a loooooot of plastic bags with that much oil.

      Something like 95% of Americans get to work via automobile.

      • hunter2_ 2 hours ago

        Isn't it 2/3 of a gallon plus any cold start inefficiency? But either way your point stands.

      • LadyCailin 2 hours ago

        There’s something to be said for the amount of microplastics that end up in the environment. And also that the comparison isn’t only against the US, there are other countries that lead the way in plastic reduction.

  • mock-possum 4 hours ago

    Do we say ‘hail corporate’ here too? Because… this feels a lot like viral marketing for whatever this brand is to me.