100 comments

  • tpurves 25 minutes ago

    What this article fails to mention is that there are also a record number of empty tankers routed to the US refineries right now, with the intention of shifting still-relatively cheap US oil products to overseas markets where the prices are already much higher and shortages have already hit. The effects of the Iran war on the US economy will really start to kick in over the next several months.

    • kyrra 20 minutes ago

      California also needs a special blend that is only required in California (CARBOB). A lot of that is refined outside of the US, because there is not the capacity domestically. Cali could immediately have more fuel and cheaper prices by dropping their special requirements.

      • 0cf8612b2e1e 17 minutes ago

        Presumably that might get an emergency resolution in the coming weeks.

      • throw03172019 17 minutes ago

        Is this an emissions reducing based blend?

      • at-fates-hands 9 minutes ago

        Last year there was some rumbling that Newsom would start to increase production because two refineries were closing sooner than later with the prospect of much higher gas prices. Since CA is really pushing renewables hard and transitioning off of fossil fuels, all the front runners for CA governor have indicated they are steadfastly against increasing production.

        Gavin Newsom warms to Big Oil in climate reversal: https://calmatters.org/politics/2025/08/oil-compromise-calif...

        I think your idea is a great solution to the problem and would give politicians cover with their environmental base and a win for their constituents.

        • dmitrygr 2 minutes ago

          > Newsom would start to increase production

          Newsom is not a refinery nor does he own any refineries. He cannot increase any production by definition.

      • colechristensen 10 minutes ago

        Does this have anything to do with the extensive and happening now or very recent shutdowns of several california refineries?

      • wilg 15 minutes ago

        Nice of Donald Trump to force us into a choice between poisoning the air and financial hardship! But at least it was for a good reason: ???

      • annoyingnoob 9 minutes ago

        We could die chocking on the air that produces too. Understand the history in CA and the reasons we have special gas. Would you really want to hurt children for cheaper gas? Really?

        https://today.usc.edu/las-environmental-success-story-cleane...

        • GenerWork 6 minutes ago

          Those rules around special gasoline were made when both federal and California car exhaust regulations were much looser than today, and electric cars were a complete pipe dream. I've seen estimates ranging for savings from $.25 to $1 per gallon if California dropped the requirements.

          >Would you really want to hurt children for cheaper gas?

          Nice appeal to emotion.

          • hparadiz 2 minutes ago

            It's more emotional to drop an important regulation over a dollar. I was already paying $5 for premium before all this and now it's $5.75. Big deal.

            I'd rather have clearer skies.

        • oceanplexian 5 minutes ago

          Texas has plenty of refineries and the children there aren’t dying or choking on the air.

          • 0cf8612b2e1e a minute ago

            It has to do with LA geography. The surrounding landscape traps the pollution so it cannot dissipate away from the city.

        • JumpCrisscross 2 minutes ago

          > Would you really want to hurt children for cheaper gas? Really?

          Yes. Most voters would, too. "Cheaper gas" understates how serious even a $20/week increase in living costs can be for a household on the margin.

    • pear01 23 minutes ago

      In such a situation - especially heading into the midterms - an export ban may be increasingly probable.

      • mjhay 19 minutes ago

        An export ban wouldn’t really help much: US oil production is (now) predominantly light crude, while US refinery capacity is oriented towards heavy crude from the gulf or Venezuela.

        We produce more oil than we use, but we can’t refine it all.

        • pear01 14 minutes ago

          It may be a bad idea (for various reasons), but it is one already being floated. Here is a press release just today from a California congressman who is proposing a bill to this effect.

          https://sherman.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/congre...

          If you agree with the parent that Americans are going to feel more energy market pain in the coming months I would imagine the pressure for this will only increase.

        • badc0ffee 17 minutes ago

          > US refinery capacity is oriented towards heavy crude from the gulf or Venezuela.

          Or from Alberta.

      • TheGRS 19 minutes ago

        This is way outside of my area of expertise, but I thought US export oil was not fungible with what we consume.

        • 0cf8612b2e1e 15 minutes ago

          Fake numbers, but I have heard it is something like the US produces 100 units of light crude -exports it all, and imports 50 units of heavy. Net exporter, but the stuff we use domestically for gas refineries comes from elsewhere.

          Technically, the refineries can be retooled to take a different blend, but it is expensive to do.

    • Avicebron 20 minutes ago

      I suppose it's too much to ask that oil produced in the US be used for the US people?

      • legitster 11 minutes ago

        Depending on the type of oil and the refinery availability it's not that simple. Not all sources of oil can go to all refineries.

        Also, there's the bigger geopolitical problems that creates. If the US knocks over the global energy supply and then retreats and abandons our trading partners, the knock-on effects would be even worse.

        A large part of the reason WWII existed was the breakdown of international trade during the Great Depression. Countries without domestic supplies of their own were forced to grab territory instead of peacefully trading for what they needed.

        • at-fates-hands 2 minutes ago

          How do you think the UAE leaving OPEC will effect the oil markets in the coming months and years? Its being touted as having a major impact.

      • abhiyerra 16 minutes ago

        The type of oil that the US produces (light and sweet) can't be handled by US refineries which need (heavy sours). Why we are still a major importer of oil.

      • JimBlackwood 16 minutes ago

        I don’t think it is. If we can then also ensure the US stops meddling in international affairs, we can all be happy!

    • 0cf8612b2e1e 22 minutes ago

      Where you can go to monitor this? Does it require an expensive AIS data feed?

    • daedrdev 23 minutes ago

      Once again, its illegal to use that oil in California due to (imo bad) environmental regulations

  • bdcravens 30 minutes ago

    All the more reason why we need to move off of everything that doesn't require gasoline/diesel: those are precious resources that shouldn't be wasted on Starbucks runs.

  • hx8 28 minutes ago

    Isn't 4-6 weeks about normal conditions? It feels like a large amount of slack for a modern JIT logistical system. Anymore enters strategic reserves territory.

    • gruez 16 minutes ago

      Not sure about california specifically, but elsewhere in the world stocks are definitely lower than normal.

      https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=600,quality=10...

    • ceejayoz 23 minutes ago

      Sure, but these aren't normal conditions. So that JIT amount is gonna rapidly become NJIT.

      • dylan604 17 minutes ago

        I'm not very creative, but if we could use DJiT to go along with the at fault party's initials, that could be fun.

  • JumpCrisscross 32 minutes ago

    I’m surprised that only “18.9% of new car sales” in California are electric [1].

    [1] https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2026-01/california-surpasses-...

    • com2kid 27 minutes ago

      Other countries have $15k new electric city cars for sale. The US doesn't. Our domestic car manufacturers are either uninterested or unable to make them, and import bans are in place on foreign cars that meet that price point.

      Also our infra not being 240v is hurting us. The rest of the world can just plug in overnight to any regular outlet and it is good enough for almost any commute.

      My EV on a 120v outlet I can manage, but it'd be hard with a second EV.

      The lack of ecosystem for good electric scooters is also sad. The weather in much of cali is perfect for it. Last time I went back to China the streets were so quiet as all the electric scooters drove by. An incredible change for the better.

      I remember stepping into an apartment parking garage that was filled with scooter charging spaces, like hundreds of them. It was crazy.

      Then I went to Taiwan and while walking around I barely talk over the noise from all the gas mopeds.

      I joked that the streets in China and quiet and the sidewalks noisy, and the streets of Taiwan are noisy and the sidewalks are quiet.

      • joshuahaglund 12 minutes ago

        I think most of the US has 240 to the home. Look at your power feed, if there are two insulated conductors on an uninsulated line, those are two 120V lines of opposite phase/polarity. I have a friend who temporarily ran a 240 volt welder by plugging into a custom outlet box, wired with two plugs that went to two outlets on different legs of the breaker box. Electric ovens, ACs, hot tubs, dryers, etc. are all commonly 240 and work with the right house breaker and wiring setup.

      • dylan604 13 minutes ago

        Most residential mains is 240v on two legs that gets divided to 120v outlets. However, major appliances like dryer/HVAC will use the 240v. I had a 240v outlet added to my garage for larger equipment. It is absolutely possible to add a 240v charger at single family homes with a visit from an electrician. The US standard of 120v is not an issue.

      • JumpCrisscross 15 minutes ago

        > our infra not being 240v is hurting us

        The 240V requirement has been overplayed, in my opinion. I still have a gas car. But my driving needs would easily be covered with 110V.

      • kibwen 18 minutes ago

        > Also our infra not being 240v is hurting us. The rest of the world can just plug in overnight to any regular outlet and it is good enough for almost any commute.

        US homes don't need any significant accommodations for 240 volt infra. Plenty of US home appliances are already 240 volt; this is a solved problem.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMmUoZh3Hq4

        • com2kid 4 minutes ago

          In other countries every outlet is 240, a regular extension cord to outlets in a apartment complex garage is 240. It is less overall amps than the beefy 240v an American dryer plugs into, but it is good enough.

          Meanwhile $3k to get 5 feet of 240 ran in a conduit and an outlet installed in the US.

          For many apartment and condo complexes, it just isn't doable as a reasonable retrofit.

        • irishcoffee 9 minutes ago

          Yeah this confuses me. I was under the impression that every electric oven and clothes dryer in the US was 240 (220) volts already. I was not aware or tracking that 240v was an issue. Is that the case in places in the US?

          • kibwen 4 minutes ago

            Keeping in mind that US electric infrastructure is the oldest in the world and fragmented across a slew of jurisdictions with their own building codes that electrified in different decades, thus making it impossible to say anything with 100% certainty: US homes already have 240 volt service, but split-phase so it often appears to be 120 volts. I edited the prior comment with an informative video.

    • jerlam 22 minutes ago

      That's for Q4 2025.

      The $7.5k EV subsidy ended in Q3 2025. Everyone considering buying an EV, bought one right before Q4 2025. The percentage for Q3 2025 is 29.1%: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/10/13/record-breaking-quarter-ca...

      It may rebound back to these levels due to the gas price increase, and many car manufacturers slashing their prices to compensate for the subsidy ending.

    • kccqzy 27 minutes ago

      That number you quote was from the fourth quarter of 2025. EV tax benefits expired in the third quarter of 2025. People who were on the fence all bought during the third quarter. The market share was 29.1%.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2025/10/13/california-reaches-29-1...

    • philipallstar 24 minutes ago

      I assume people are worried about former "we have 12 years before doom" people, having all converted into "burn Teslas" people, destroying some of the best electric cars on the planet.

  • sfghsdgh 37 minutes ago

    6 weeks are standard. If you want to keep it for longer it needs additives which increase price. Noone does that usually.

    • _air 33 minutes ago

      Yeah, seems like a standard supply level to me.

      "California’s inventory has averaged just over 20 days of supply over the last five years (2019–23), compared with the U.S. average of 21.6 days."

      https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63944

      • wat10000 29 minutes ago

        I think they mean that it's 4-6 weeks until they hit zero, accounting both for stored products and the current rate of production/imports.

      • FrustratedMonky 19 minutes ago

        Usually when something like this is reported, it is because of some other milestone.

        Like, they have 6 weeks, on hand, in tanks already delivered.

        But, all of the ships in-bound are now done.

        After the war started, there was a record number of ships, already filled, already in-transit. But now they have all reached their destinations. So there is no more incoming.

    • rconti 33 minutes ago

      I think in this case it's 6 weeks but _declining_, but that's a good distinction to point out.

      • Plasmoid 10 minutes ago

        Yeah, but what's the burn rate?

        If it's going down at 1 day per week then it's not so bad. If it's closer to 0.75 days per day, that's much more serious.

  • mikeweiss 22 minutes ago

    When you see the U.S Government making near daily public statements with the intended effect of calming markets and the public.... It's time to be worried. A.K.A when the government says "everything is going to be ok, don't worry we got this under control" that's when shit is bad. This is what we have been seeing. It seems we are near a tipping point now.

  • josuepeq 34 minutes ago

    Soon gas stations in the Bay Area will have to price Gasoline in quarts, because the gas pumps can only display up to $9.99.

    • dylan604 9 minutes ago

      That'll confuse the average driver. The number of people that know the various measurements for fluids is not that high. I can totally see some future social media posts excited about the $2.99 price and then getting upset when the pump shows .25 gallons.

  • rconti 31 minutes ago

    I'm a bit perplexed on this one-- Yes, we refine our own blend of gasoline, but it's based on market oil -- nothing about the war we started with Iran impacts our domestic refining capability.

    Also, oil takes longer to get from Iran to the west coast than to the east coast. Shouldn't the east coast be the first to notice decreased shipments, because the west coast essentially has a stock still in transit for longer?

    EDIT: Nevermind, now I see that 25% of CA gas is refined overseas.

    • guyzero 25 minutes ago

      Weirdly California doesn't get all of its gas from domestic refining.

      https://timesofsandiego.com/state-region/2026/04/23/prices-c...

      "California’s top foreign refinery supplier of gasoline and blendstocks this decade is Reliance Industries Ltd.’s Jamnagar refinery complex in western India. "

      "More than 9 million barrels arrived via this loophole in 2025"

      Now, that's a tiny fraction of the 320M barrels of gas used in CA annually, but anything that affects global oil shipments will be felt in California.

    • brightball 19 minutes ago

      2 refineries in California were closed over the last 2 years leading to a 17% reduction in total refining capacity.

      Per the article, the type of fuel needed by California standards is produced at refineries in India, South Korea and Washington.

      https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65704

      • jeffbee 10 minutes ago

        ... because demand is down. California hit peak gas sales 20 years ago and reaching zero motor fuel sales is foreseeable.

    • daedrdev 27 minutes ago

      CA’s requirement that it gets its own blend of gas is combined with how its openly hostile towards its ever decreasing refineries and that it is impossible for a new refinery to ever open makes it’s supplies absurdly limited

      • doug_durham 24 minutes ago

        People in LA need to breathe during the summer time. So yes we demand a blend that protects our residents. And the refiners are choosing to close refineries. They are not being compelled.

        • daedrdev 18 minutes ago

          They are being strangled, it’s their choice to tap out is how I would put it.

          The improvement in air quality is due to the clean air act, catalytic converters, and the shuttering of industry, the gas blend plays a minor part. Even then, with gas so much higher it will materially make peoples lives worse, at some point society would be better off getting rid of the blend.

        • ceejayoz 23 minutes ago

          Yeah, I remember flying into LAX in the late 80s and early 90s. Smog so thick it looked like a physical obstacle.

          Whatever they're doing seems to be working nicely.

      • tencentshill 20 minutes ago

        California learned that lesson the hard way. Have you been in the city during a bad smog day?

      • bsimpson 22 minutes ago

        It's bonkers that some of the most expensive gas you'll ever buy is in SF, and Martinez is _right there_. You could bike there, if they allowed bikes on the bridge.

      • guyzero 25 minutes ago

        Everyone loves gas and hates refineries. It's a tough choice.

  • 0x1ceb00da 10 minutes ago

    Interesting. I thought the USA secured cuban oil to prepare for the fallout of the iran war. Was that not enough?

  • brightball 21 minutes ago

    Didn't California shut down 2 high capacity refineries in the last couple of years?

  • __loam 38 minutes ago

    People will blame climate policy on this but this is evidence that we've failed to move off our fossil fuel dependency.

    • daedrdev 17 minutes ago

      Texas is better at this because they don't restrict solar with “enviromental” nimby lawsuits.

      • dylan604 7 minutes ago

        Nor have restrictions on refining oil or require a special blend of gasoline. It does seem strange to call out Texas as doing something right environmentally.

    • throwforfeds 34 minutes ago

      We've had decades to do something about it, but if Trump deciding to step into a completely unnecessary war and blundering the entire thing is what makes everyone wake up then I guess that's a silver lining.

      • dylan604 7 minutes ago

        4D chess baby. He's a genius. All of his oil investing friends think so.

    • com2kid 31 minutes ago

      It is funny that propaganda has somehow convinced conservatives, people who used to idealize self reliance and independence from government dependencies, to move away from solar and EVs.

      A EV and a home solar setup with a large battery bank, is the ultimate in self reliance.

      I remember even 10 years ago you'd see the occasional right leaning homesteader talking about the benefits of being off grid with a solar setup.

      Now days removing our dependencies on foreign powers is somehow a liberal conspiracy. O_o

      • hamdingers 25 minutes ago

        A bicycle and moderate fitness is the ultimate in self-reliance but you never heard them promoting that either.

        • com2kid 22 minutes ago

          Bicycle doesn't carry a family of 4, or carry loads of dirt or pick up lumber or tow a trailer.

          Also my e-bike needs more maintenance than my EV. Go figure.

          • dylan604 a minute ago

            I was very pleasantly surprised at how much my single cargo e-bike can handle. It is big, nearly the size of a tandem bike, but it served me well for 5 years of not having a car.

            Curious about your maintenance needs. I have a guy that comes out once a year for service and tunes it up for me. After 3 years, I replaced the chain. I've upgraded to hydraulic brakes by the same guy. Other than that, it's been smooth riding. Or are you saying your EV needs so little maintenance that even the low maintenance on a bike seem high?

          • hamdingers 15 minutes ago

            Four bicycles would, or a mix of bikes and bike seats if they're young. I tow a trailer with my bike all the time. Delivery of lumber and dirt exists. It's impossible to mention bikes without someone clamoring to display their own lack of creativity.

            The truth remains, if you want transportation with the fewest dependencies, a bicycle is hard to beat.

          • mylifeandtimes 11 minutes ago

            carry a family of 4 where? if you rely on that other location exisiting, you are not self-reliant.

            tow a trailer where? see above.

            Pick up a load of dirt or lumber-- how did those materials get to the pick-up point?

            And the road you are driving on, where did it come from?

      • theultdev 19 minutes ago

        I'm conservative and own an EV and ICE truck. I know many conservatives with Tesla's. I have solar and a propane generator as backups.

        I think the propaganda would be whatever said we're all against it, that's untrue. We just want both, no gas bans.

        • com2kid 7 minutes ago

          Conservative bots are out strong in Pacific NW forums slop posting against new "green energy" energy projects. Blaming the (not yet built!) green energy projects for upcoming rate increases.

          Nevermind that solar is why Texas has such cheap electricity prices.

          > no gas bans.

          I'm all for the free market.

          Price into gas the expected increase in healthcare costs due to air and ground water pollution. Stop subsidizing it for non-critical uses.

          Same for extra tire dust from EVs (that shit is toxic AF).

          Right now I see astroturfing that EVs are why our electricity infrastructure is overloaded (rather than blaming 50 years of neglect), or that the cars burst into flame (no more than other cars and newer battery tech not any more).

          Subsidizing EVs is interesting because it is obvious that EVs are the future (battery tech gets ~6% better year over year, compounding, ICE designs haven't seen improvements in decades), but recent removal of government support caused American car companies to basically give up on anything except the domestic car market, which spells their long term doom (which the Ford CEO has pretty much come out and admitted.)

  • htx80nerd 44 minutes ago

    Governments have gotten in the bad habit of acting like nothing will ever go wrong. Living paycheck-to-paycheck, so to speak. Cali not the only one suffering this fate. It doesnt matter if it's Trump's fault or not. Lets just say it is. Bad things happen. You have to be ready.

    • alpha_squared 34 minutes ago

      > Bad things happen. You have to be ready.

      You're not wrong, but also how "ready" is "ready enough"? What about things the US doesn't generally have access to? Rare earth minerals? Helium? Cobalt? Coffee?

      It also costs money to build the infra for storage and more money to maintain. There's always a trade-off. I think governments have done an acceptable job of being ready, but they are predicated on the assumption that the global order that the developed world has largely enjoyed for several decades remains largely intact.

      It's a bad assumption in hindsight because some folks chose to go over a cliff over fixing deep-seated problems. You can't really control for chaos.

      • unethical_ban 18 minutes ago

        Moving to green and nuclear energy, pressing hard to upgrade the national grid would be the obvious things to reduce our short-term dependence on fossil fuels.

        Energy independence is not a pipe dream, and it isn't ever going to be 100%. We should be working toward it.

        We may be somewhat dependent on China or other sources for solar panels, for example, but once we have the product, it has a multi-decade lifetime compared to an instantly-consumed fuel.

        Even if you're a fossil fuel fanatic, one should be advocating for more of our refineries to be tooled for processing our own crude oil. But that isn't as profitable in the short term, so we don't do it.

        P.S. politically, we've seen our system does not have the capacity to deal with a malicious executive taking total control of the government. We need a complete rebuild of our legislative and executive branches.

    • tialaramex 35 minutes ago

      Surely an example of being ready would be to electrify everything?

      • vkou 24 minutes ago

        The rest of the developed world is banning ICE car sales, meanwhile the US is scrapping its wind farms, because doing it trolls the left.

    • AtlasBarfed 17 minutes ago

      We were fully warned of this with the supply chain disruption of covid.

      Global supply chain has become dangerously dependent upon a stable geopolitical environment that has been unnaturally provided by the United States for the last near 100 years in post world war II.

      This unipolar naval supremacy is not a normal situation. One of the things that triggered world war I was an escalating arms race in battleships between Germany and Great Britain.

      I would recommend the United States practically every country, Force its automobile manufacturers to go very hardcore down the plugin hybrid electric vehicle, which will maximize the battery supply to electrify the largest amount of daily consumer transportation.

      I would say you should impose a minimum of 40 to 50 mi for an all-electric range, The 20 mile range which is degraded to really about 12 now is not sufficient in my four phev.

      Hybrids also weighs far less gasoline and idling and low torque low RPM situations like stop and go and sitting in traffic jams, by utilizing gener of breaking, using the electric motor for the 0-25 acceleration that ICE engines are incredibly inefficient at.

      It's my opinion that the equipment and manufacturing switchover should be much less of an imposition on car manufacturers than the full EV switchover. Consumers do not have such a shocking switch to driving habits because a phev just functions like a normal ICE car if the battery drains, it solves long-range transportation issues and concerns with EVs.

      Most car manufacturers know how to make turbocharged high efficiency compact engines, most major manufacturers I believe know how to use Atkinson cycle with variable valve timing combined with a hybrid drivetrain to further boost gas efficiency

  • iqihs 39 minutes ago

    the entire economy of California being dependent on how Iran is feeling on a given day is crazy work

    • neaden 32 minutes ago

      Who do you think started the current war?

    • hvb2 30 minutes ago

      The US is an exporter of oil, so no US state will run out.

      However, you do pay the market price.

      • doug_durham 21 minutes ago

        Yes it is a net exporter of oil, but not oil for gasoline. The use is a net importer of oil used for gasoline. That's because oil companies have chosen to not make the investments needed to refine domestic oil. We have to import for that.

      • repelsteeltje 21 minutes ago

        The article mentions that California no longer is. Due to closures it is now a net importer of oil.

      • daedrdev 26 minutes ago

        CA mandates its own blend which it is dependent on imports for

      • greenavocado 24 minutes ago

        California is very poorly connected to the rest of the country in terms of pipelines https://www.bts.gov/sites/bts.dot.gov/files/2021-03/U.S.%20P...

    • smlacy 38 minutes ago

      Yeah especially given that California is a leader in renewable energy sources.

      • hvb2 33 minutes ago

        Renewables is for electricity. Oil is used for a lot of things that electricity can't replace, or not yet

        • jeffbee 20 minutes ago

          Much of what fossil fuels are used for is to refine fossil fuels, a use that we don't need to entirely replace.

      • bdcravens 32 minutes ago

        Yes, but even the renewables market is dependent on petroleum-based transport and infrastructure.

        • triceratops a minute ago

          But the more renewables get used the less true that is.

    • edmundsauto 23 minutes ago

      Isn’t it more dependent on how Trump is feeling? That makes it much more depressing for the leader of the country to be messing with our largest economy like this.