I think you're misunderstanding the paradigm shift completely -- AI does not just generate code N(x) more quickly. It thinks N(x) faster, it researches N(x) faster, it tests N(x) faster. There are hundreds of tasks that you'll find engineers are offloading to AI every day. The major hurdle right now is actually pivoting LLMs from just generating code: integrating those tasks into workflows. This is why tool-use and agentic workflows have taken engineering by storm.
Not sure why you are downvoted but I agree. Additionally, perhaps LLMs are just like another higher programming language as the author said, and they still need someone to steer them.
I'm sure it was very difficult to program in machine code, but if now (or soon) anyone can just write software using a LLM without any sort of learning it changes everything. LLMs can plan and create something usable from simple instructions or ideas, and they will only get better.
I think LLMs will be (and already are) useful for many more things than programming anyway.
the problem with this article is that he is right of course, but only right now. There is no reason to believe that future AI platforms won't be able to review code themselves and manage some aspects of themselves with minimal human oversight, yes we likely will always need a few experts
I have no stake in Fred Brooks. But No Silver Bullet seemed to be taken as gospel on this board. Sufficiently productivity-enhancing technology? Gimme a break man. Maybe you’ll get a 30% boost. Not a 10X boost.
I honestly couldn't force myself to finish yet another blog post about how "we're not yet sure what impact LLMs will have on society" or whatever beleaguered point the author was attempting to make.
"Some random person's take on LLMs" was maybe interesting in 2024. Today it is not even remotely interesting.
There are a gazillion more interesting things happening today that ought to be of interest to the median HN reader. Can we talk about those instead?
I am an AI engineer and I honestly agree. Talking about LLMs feels like the new crypto, with some nuances (i.e. many innovative things being possible and done with LLMs whereas crypto innovations were… few and far between).
it’s felt like the new crypto to me for about 2-3 years now.
i was doing an ML Sec phd a year or two before all this hype took off. i took one of the OG transformer papers along to present at our official little phd reading group when it was only a few months old (the details of this might be a bit sketchy here, was years ago now).
now i want nothing to do with the field in any way shape or form. i’m just done.
If you're interested in Fred Brooks's "No Silver Bullet," I also explored it in the context of LLMs: https://smartmic.bearblog.dev/no-ai-silver-bullet/
I think you're misunderstanding the paradigm shift completely -- AI does not just generate code N(x) more quickly. It thinks N(x) faster, it researches N(x) faster, it tests N(x) faster. There are hundreds of tasks that you'll find engineers are offloading to AI every day. The major hurdle right now is actually pivoting LLMs from just generating code: integrating those tasks into workflows. This is why tool-use and agentic workflows have taken engineering by storm.
Not sure why you are downvoted but I agree. Additionally, perhaps LLMs are just like another higher programming language as the author said, and they still need someone to steer them.
I'm sure it was very difficult to program in machine code, but if now (or soon) anyone can just write software using a LLM without any sort of learning it changes everything. LLMs can plan and create something usable from simple instructions or ideas, and they will only get better.
I think LLMs will be (and already are) useful for many more things than programming anyway.
True. Knowledge workers are cooked.
the problem with this article is that he is right of course, but only right now. There is no reason to believe that future AI platforms won't be able to review code themselves and manage some aspects of themselves with minimal human oversight, yes we likely will always need a few experts
I'm reminded of this scene from the Matrix: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cD4nhYR-VRA where the older wise man discusses societies reliance on AI
"Nobody cares how it works, as long as it works"
We're done. I for one welcome our new AI Overlords, or more accurately still welcome the tech bro billionares who are pulling the strings
I have no stake in Fred Brooks. But No Silver Bullet seemed to be taken as gospel on this board. Sufficiently productivity-enhancing technology? Gimme a break man. Maybe you’ll get a 30% boost. Not a 10X boost.
Until recently. dramatic pause
And then AI happened.
Let's actually not talk about LLMs.
I honestly couldn't force myself to finish yet another blog post about how "we're not yet sure what impact LLMs will have on society" or whatever beleaguered point the author was attempting to make.
"Some random person's take on LLMs" was maybe interesting in 2024. Today it is not even remotely interesting.
There are a gazillion more interesting things happening today that ought to be of interest to the median HN reader. Can we talk about those instead?
I am an AI engineer and I honestly agree. Talking about LLMs feels like the new crypto, with some nuances (i.e. many innovative things being possible and done with LLMs whereas crypto innovations were… few and far between).
it’s felt like the new crypto to me for about 2-3 years now.
i was doing an ML Sec phd a year or two before all this hype took off. i took one of the OG transformer papers along to present at our official little phd reading group when it was only a few months old (the details of this might be a bit sketchy here, was years ago now).
now i want nothing to do with the field in any way shape or form. i’m just done.
Tedious LLM discourse isn’t aimed at AI engineers. It’s doomscrolling fodder for regular programmers.