69 comments

  • jqpabc123 2 hours ago

    The real reason why the USA can't compete in global manufacturing --- poor leadership.

    Leadership that caters to special interests instead of the overall, long term benefit of citizens and organizations.

    Nothing illustrates this better than energy policy and the foibles thereof.

    Ethanol is a particularly bad idea that only came about due to the farm lobby.

    Solar and renewables are progressing despite policy oppostion.

    Cheap energy offers a significant competituve advantage --- that USA policy openly and stupidly rejects.

    • niccl 19 minutes ago

      How about Bill Gates as US's Benevolent Dictator For Life?

    • asdfman123 an hour ago

      It's not that our leaders are uniquely bad (do you think the CCP leaders are better?) but that the incentives for that kind of economic development aren't there.

      Largely due to, as you point out, special interests.

      EDIT: judging by the comments everyone here seems to love China

      • padjo 39 minutes ago

        > do you think the CCP leaders are better?

        Based on their public statements and policy actions, absolutely. America these days sounds and behaves like a country being run by absolute cretins.

      • janalsncm an hour ago

        At a 30,000 foot view the purpose of politics is to keep corrupt people and stupid people away from the levers of power. Voting is one possible way, fiat is another.

        Readers can assess for themselves the degree to which the U.S. government has done this, as well as the CCP.

        By the way Sortition, which is picking random people to run government for a period of time, would probably be better than what we have now in my opinion. We are worse than random.

        • asdfman123 23 minutes ago

          What you want out of politics is not the purpose of politics. Politics is an emergent phenomenon that appears naturally within groups of people.

          People/groups engage in politics to exert control over the social environment.

      • satvikpendem 37 minutes ago

        CCP leaders are largely technocrats unlike in the US. There are many engineers and doctors in the upper ranks.

      • anon291 15 minutes ago

        I think phrases like 'love China' set this up as an emotional argument when it isn't one.

        I have no idea what China or Chinese leaders are like. I have no relation to China.

        However, I can say that their policy choices on these technical issues are better than ours. The only emotion I feel when saying this is disappointment in my own country, rather than pride in China. I wish America had more energy production. Almost all American problems are the result of lacking energy production capacity.

      • forgetfreeman an hour ago

        "do you think the CCP leaders are better?"

        Yes, unambiguously. They appear to be aggressively investing in collaborative foreign policy projects globally, have a stellar track record when it comes to not starting random wars around the world, and their economic planning and engagement with decarbonization efforts massively outshine the US.

        • zdragnar 36 minutes ago

          You just need to stomach slavery, violent repression of political dissidents, live organ harvesting and a handful of other unpleasantries.

          • vondur 27 minutes ago

            Yeah, people here are insane to believe the CCP is some kind of technocratic benevolent autocracy.

            • asdfman123 21 minutes ago

              It helps that they spend billions to manipulate public perception on forums like this one

          • otterley 20 minutes ago

            I'm not an apologist for Chinese repression, but America still has or once had slavery, child labor, torture (Abu Ghraib), patent medicine and unsafe food, racist policies that prevent wealth accumulation (redlining), mass pollution, racism and mistrust of non-white-skinned people, a terrible healthcare system for most, and still debates over the utility of vaccines, has a poor K-12 education outcome, refuses to severely punish notorious white-collar criminals and make their victims whole, immunizes its law enforcement from prosecution when it violates others' civil rights, and vests the President with absolute immunity or a presumption of immunity in exercising its powers. And those are just the embarrassments and atrocities I can think of right now.

            We still have a lot to answer for.

            • asdfman123 17 minutes ago

              If it's already changed don't you think it's answered for? What level of performative apologetics will make it better in your estimation?

              • otterley 15 minutes ago

                I don't want performative apologetics; I want the still-existing problems to be remediated. I also want Americans not to deny their history and present reality. Recognition and apology are not identical.

                • asdfman123 a few seconds ago

                  You seem to be not distinguishing things that have happened hundreds of years ago with things that are present, exaggerating the scale of things that are still present, and not acknowledging that those things are widely recognized and even taught in American history classes.

    • guelo an hour ago

      It's not just the farm lobby, it's baked deep into the constitution and the political geography so that vast empty land stretches have hugely disproportional political power.

      • iso1631 an hour ago

        The more acres you have, the more kWh you can generate each year

        Why wouldn't land owners want to farm the sun?

        • philipkglass 32 minutes ago

          Leasing land for solar installations is popular with rural land owners. Or at least popular enough that there's rarely an issue finding enough willing owners to develop a new project.

          The problem is typically their neighbors agitating against allowing the actual land owners to sign leases. It's the rural equivalent of activists who fight apartment complex construction in the name of "preserving neighborhood character."

        • jedberg 24 minutes ago

          Energy can't be moved as easily as food. If you generate electricity in Iowa you can't easily sell it to California.

          • bryanlarsen 18 minutes ago

            The Eastern and Western grids are interconnected.

            • jedberg 13 minutes ago

              Yes, but you can't just inject 100s of megawatts into the middle and hope it magically gets to the coasts. There are a lot of losses on the transmission lines and each step has a max capacity.

              • bryanlarsen 6 minutes ago

                Sure, it's not a trivial exercise, but neither is food transport. That's a much harder problem that's been solved because we had to. The main reason we don't have a continental grid is because we don't need one.

        • karmelapple 38 minutes ago

          > Farm the sun

          Fantastic messaging! I could see this being a great way to market this, especially with something mentioned in the article:

          > Farm the sun to make 3X more money

      • pbhjpbhj an hour ago

        How do you think energy policy is baked into the Constitution?

        People vote, so how does land have political power? Presumably you mean people in low population density get disproportionate representation in USA?

        • pixl97 an hour ago

          The last point is what they mean. The Senate causes a number of problems with it's setup. But even the House and how small it is causes further problems. The number of reps there needs to go up by many many times.

        • drdec an hour ago

          I believe the grandparent is referring to the US Senate, which was designed as the state's representation in the federal government, and where each state gets 2 senators.

          This means that California gets 2 senators but so do Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, etc.

          Now, the conclusion of the grandparent does not follow in my opinion.

          Nothing in the constitution mandates the current state boundaries. California could break itself into multiple states (there is a population minimum) and gain more representation in the senate if it wanted.

          But there are trade offs. California is a huge prize in the electoral college and has been a safe Democrat win for quite some time. Splitting into multiple states could jeopardize that. Being large also allows them to lead the way on regulation in a way that smaller states couldn't.

          The US government is quite the game theory problem.

          • MostlyStable an hour ago

            I have a different reason why the conclusion doesn't follow: while it's true that less populous states have outsized influence in the senate, the constitution doesn't require (and in fact, originally discourages) the federal government to engage in the kind of activities being discussed here. These activities should be the domain of the states. But a long history of expanding federal power (and various supreme court decisions affirming those expansions along, in my opinion, dubious interpretations of both the constitution and various statutes, especially the commerce clause) has led to this issue.

            The fact that North Dakota has a lot more influence in the US Senate than California on a per capita basis shouldn't be that big of a deal, because the US Senate should be doing a whole heck of a lot less than it is, and states should be picking up that slack.

            The more power and responsibility we have given the federal government, the more the issues appear....because it's doing things never intended or envisioned by the founders.

        • buildsjets an hour ago

          People are represented by Representatives, real estate is represented by Senators.

    • lenerdenator 27 minutes ago

      > The real reason why the USA can't compete in global manufacturing --- poor leadership.

      I'd say it's partially that, but it's also priorities.

      When the Boomers were coming of age 40 years ago, they didn't want to work in factories like their parents had, and they didn't want to pay the prices necessary to pay American workers to make goods in an environmentally-responsible manner.

      So they gladly bought things made in China where - at the time - the average person would rather work in a factory than on a peasant farm, the labor was cheap, and whining about things like "air quality" and "potable water" were either not a high priority, or would get you dealt with by the local Party representatives who had been told that putting that new factory in was the difference between them advancing up the ranks or being sent to a re-education camp.

      If anything, China was the ultimate caterer to special interests, those being the Western companies who wanted to do business there without having to deal with hiring Westerners.

  • csours an hour ago

    I'd love to see an investigation into fossil fuel accumulation over geological time scales - especially petroleum.

    From what I've seen, 10,000 barrels per year is a reasonable guestimate.

    If that is the case, then just the electrical energy harvested from solar panels in the UK could convert air into fuel at a faster rate than the WHOLE earth (on average over geological time scales) (as long as the fuel conversion/production was at least 1% efficient at converting electricity to fuel).

    https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/1owp09/if_oil_t...

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S209624951...

    • moralestapia an hour ago

      Random question and memes-aside, is there oil on other planets?

      Edit: GPT says hydrocarbons yes, oil as in Earth no (because that comes from complex living matter).

      Edit 2: As far as we know, I really hope there's more life out there.

      • Brian_K_White 26 minutes ago

        I thought they discovered at least decades ago that our oil is actually largely inorganic? It's not dinosaurs & ferns but a direct chemical & physical process. I know a lot of people still say it's just a competing theory but they have found many large deposits in places where it's not possible for it to have been organic. (too deep, in the middle of pure granite with only raw volcanic material and no other organics, etc)

      • csours an hour ago

        Well, there are a lot of planets, and a lot of time.

        So I would say yes.

        On average though, I would say no.

      • augusto-moura an hour ago

        We can't be sure, but probably not on the solar system.

    • Rekindle8090 an hour ago

      solar panels dont convert air into fuel

      • margalabargala an hour ago

        Solar panels generate energy which can be used for a variety of purposes. One of those uses is converting air to fuel.

        If it helps you, think of it like money. You cannot eat it or be sheltered beneath it, but you can use it to purchase food and shelter.

      • Brian_K_White 24 minutes ago

        Of course they do. They convert anything you want into anything else you want.

      • csours an hour ago

        Thank you?

        Solar panels don't convert air to fuel directly, but you could use the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabatier_reaction

  • tim-tday 2 hours ago

    Corn ethanol fuel has been a known scam for decades.

    • upofadown 21 minutes ago

      Yeah, you only get out something like 30% more energy than you put in[1]. So this isn't so much about how great solar is but is more about how bad corn ethanol is...

      [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_energy_balance

    • jimbob45 an hour ago

      Corn is grown for food security as far as I'm aware. Corn ethanol fuel is just an outlet so that the corn grown doesn't go to waste.

      • triceratops an hour ago

        Ethanol corn is the same as the corn grown for animal feed. https://iowarfa.org/ethanol-center/ethanol-facts/food-and-fu... It isn't human-grade corn.

        • Cytobit an hour ago

          What do you think they are feeding the animals for? To make food.

          • triceratops an hour ago

            Massively inefficient approach to "food security". Burn fossil fuels to grow animal fodder, feed and raise animals, wtf. Huge amounts of energy lost at each stage of that process.

            • jfengel 42 minutes ago

              Meat is hugely inefficient, but Americans demand it. If you told Americans in a crisis, "For food security reasons you're all limited to a quarter pounder per day", we'd have a national riot. They're used to three times that.

              They'd insist that they'd die without enough protein, and vegetable protein sources don't count. Even limiting their meat to a half-pound per day would cause riots, even though that is more than enough protein.

              So efficiency just isn't on the table here. We're going to over-support our meat industry.

              • triceratops 40 minutes ago

                That doesn't explain growing corn for ethanol.

                • Brian_K_White 13 minutes ago

                  You can't turn farming capacity on and off. If you need a given level of capacity, it has to already be there up & running, the entire system including all the people filling all the roles with all the experience, and all the machinery, all the distribution and economic relationships and countless support dependencies.

                  What you CAN do quicker is change what you use that capacity for.

                  And even what you do with the current product right this moment even before you have time to change what you will harvest next year. Corn that that is normally only fed to animals is still absolutely a ready resource for people if they need it. Most of our food is fully artificially constructed out of base ingredients these days. Every box and bag and can on the shelves that needs a carbohydrate barely cares at all where it comes from or what it originally tastes like raw.

                  • triceratops 11 minutes ago

                    But what is this system trying to secure against?

                    America already grows enough animal fodder without counting corn for ethanol. If some calamity strikes corn production for animal fodder, it will equally affect corn production for ethanol. Because it's the same crop.

            • margalabargala an hour ago

              Food availability is orders of magnitude higher than needed to feed all humans. Efficiency isn't an issue. Any hunger is an economic and logistical problem not a production problem.

          • Teever an hour ago

            Given that there are significantly cheaper, healthier and more efficient alternatives to eating animals isn't it more accurate to say that they're feeding the animals to make money?

        • quickthrowman 29 minutes ago

          It’s not sweet corn, but it’s still edible.

          It could be ground into cornmeal or corn flour and consumed by humans in the event of a global food supply chain collapse. I’d rather eat cornmeal than starve or have to invade Canada to get wheat or whatever.

          Ethanol in gasoline is food security policy that exists to have something to use the corn for rather than throw it away.

          Corn subsidies are a few billions of dollars a year, that’s pretty cheap for food security.

      • megaman821 an hour ago

        Between the ethanol and the animal feed, we are encouraging growing way more corn than is needed for food security.

      • oatmeal1 an hour ago

        If food security were a motivating factor in policy, we would be diversifying away from corn, because drought and aquifer depletion are threatening the ability to continue to grow it.

      • boc an hour ago

        It's mostly done because Iowa hosts (arguably) the most important primary election for presidential cycles.

        • DavidPeiffer an hour ago

          (Iowan)

          We've been losing our importance in the election cycles. We did have a pair of very long tenured senators who definitely gave us an outsized representation for decades, helping to establish many of the ag friendly policies we have in place today (Senators Harkin and Grassley).

    • therobots927 2 hours ago

      Just another handout. Ironically many of the recipients of said hand outs oppose social welfare programs.

      • tombert an hour ago

        I think the theoretical idea is that we want to ensure that there is always a very large domestic corn supply, in the event of war or something. Corn is a crop that has a lot of uses; it can be refined into sugar, it can be used as flour, it's relatively energy dense food-wise, and it can be fairly easily converted into fuel if necessary.

        I'm not saying I fully agree with the reasoning but I at least kind of get it.

        • testaccount28 an hour ago

          right. view it instead as "we need to keep domestic corn production above a certain threshold." the result is that we have a lot of extra corn. now the question becomes: what do we do with this extra corn? we can either throw it away, or turn it into fuel.

          it's not an efficient course if the target is fuel, but that's not the target. it is a decent use if we have lots of corn that nobody wants, which we do.

      • jmclnx an hour ago

        I would say it is even worse, it is a scam to feed $ to the rich due to Gov subsidizes.

        Plus, IIRC, ethanol is used as a way to make people think it is OK to use fossil fuels allowing the oil industry to point to these farms. Plus I heard too high an ethanol mixture can damage your engine, thus adding to "planned obsolescence".

      • dotcoma an hour ago

        Socialism for the rich and rugged capitalism for the poor -- MLK

  • jfengel 27 minutes ago

    Joules per acre seems an odd thing to maximize. Solar and corn don't require the same land. And we're not running out of land.

    We know that ethanol isn't really energy efficient. We do it partly because we like having way, way too much food capacity (as a matter of security), and partly because we love to fetishize farmers (especially the ones in Iowa, who get a lot of attention every four years during Presidential campaigns).

  • iso1631 an hour ago

    Technology Connections covered this a few months ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtQ9nt2ZeGM - from about 22m to 38m

  • epistasis an hour ago

    > roughly 12 million hectares of US farmland—an area the size of New York State—is currently devoted to corn crops that are farmed not for food, but for fuel.

    2.6M - 5.7M hectares (10,000-22,000 sq miles), less than half of this ethanol land, would power all electricity in the US:

    https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/how-much-land-power-us...

    For other comparisons, there are roughly 0.8M hectares of rooftop in the United States (table ES-1 here, 8.13e9 sq m https://docs.nlr.gov/docs/fy16osti/65298.pdf).

    Looking at LLNL's flowchart of energy in the US:

    https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/sites/flowcharts/files/2024-12/e...

    that solar will produce ~13 quads of energy. That's out of a total of only 32.1 quads total of all energy services delivered. When electrifying from fossil fuels to electricity, we only need to (roughly) meet that 32.1 of services; EVs very efficiently deliver electricity to the purpose of movement, ICE are like 20%-30% at best. Burning fossil fuels for heat is ~99% efficient, but heat pumps give you 300%-400% efficiency because they move heat rather than convert electricity directly to heat.

    So converting all ethanol land use to solar would power the entire US; that's ignoring all the wind power we generate, all the hydropower we generate, all the next generation geothermal that will probably come online over the next decade. And at the base of it all, storage is super cheap these days!

    The transition is possible now, it will be cheaper than fossil fuels, and the longer we let fossil fuel misinformation deceive us, the more we will waste on expensive energy.

  • oidar 41 minutes ago

    Solar is nice and all - it's is cleaner than fossil fuels, but requires a bunch of inputs. Geothermal really needs to be pushed for more; after the initial investment, requires basically no inputs and has no toxic byproducts or disposal problems.

    "The full technical potential of next-generation geothermal systems to generate electricity is second only to solar PV among renewable technologies and sufficient to meet global electricity demand 140-times over."

    https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-geothermal-energy/...

    • epistasis 39 minutes ago

      Inputs for solar? Do you mean the sun? That's a new complaint I've never heard anybody state.

      But agreed, advanced geothermal is likely to have a ton of deployment. It's fun to follow all the startups making great progress right now. The big thing to watch will be the degradation in heat levels over 10-20 years; depletion of heat faster than the ability of the surround rock to conduct it is the biggest threat to the technology as a whole right now. But early pilots are showing no fall in output temperature so far, so that's great.

      • oidar 16 minutes ago

        > Inputs for solar? Do you mean the sun? That's a new complaint I've never heard anybody state.

        Well more precisely, the inputs for making the solar panels compared to the inputs for making geothermal plants. The best of solar last 30 years atm and the best of geothermal atm last 100+ years. Not to mention you don't need any rare imported minerals to make geothermal plants.