Oil futures are absolutely a real asset - this isn’t Kalshi “who wins an Oscar” junk. Oil futures let consumers like airlines hedge prices, so their role in price discovery and liquidity is important.
Since it's commodities it would be the CFTC, but it would be trivial since brokers are required by law to collect KYC information on all futures trades and anyone holding positions above the Large Trader Reporting threshold (a few hundred contracts for crude) is already disclosed to the CFTC by name. 7,990 lots of Brent in a one minute window is enormously above that threshold.
> Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals?
Yes, depending where the trades were based and their market participants' KYC rigor.
As the article mentions, the CFTC "is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy" [1]. If the "lots of Brent crude futures" the article mentioned traded on the Intercontinental Exchange [2], when we can almost certainly trace it back to at least some individuals.
>> Investors placed a bet
Aren't these more of gamblers?. There is no real asset they are investing in.
Oil futures are absolutely a real asset - this isn’t Kalshi “who wins an Oscar” junk. Oil futures let consumers like airlines hedge prices, so their role in price discovery and liquidity is important.
Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals? Would love AI to do that.
Since it's commodities it would be the CFTC, but it would be trivial since brokers are required by law to collect KYC information on all futures trades and anyone holding positions above the Large Trader Reporting threshold (a few hundred contracts for crude) is already disclosed to the CFTC by name. 7,990 lots of Brent in a one minute window is enormously above that threshold.
I would love it if real people did that, and then acted on what they found with moral integrity.
Yes, if the SEC decides to they can trace it back to specific orders.
Will the SEC decide to?
The orders are coming from… inside the house??
CFTC, SEC does not regulate commodities but securities.
Would love human with brain to do that.
> Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals?
Yes, depending where the trades were based and their market participants' KYC rigor.
As the article mentions, the CFTC "is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy" [1]. If the "lots of Brent crude futures" the article mentioned traded on the Intercontinental Exchange [2], when we can almost certainly trace it back to at least some individuals.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious...
[2] https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data
Why AI? You want tracker that dont hallucinate.
But, you also need DOJ that prosecutes rich guy white crime, so.
If this trade is based on inside information, it would be on the Iranian side since it's timed on the IRGC's X post.
That seems like a smart move by Iran. Get rich off your own announcements.