Preliminary data from a longitudinal AI impact study

(newsletter.getdx.com)

22 points | by donutshop 3 hours ago ago

7 comments

  • rybosworld 13 minutes ago

    > Planning, alignment, scoping, code review, and handoffs—the human parts of the SDLC—remain largely untouched

    Seems likely that process is holding things back. Planning has always been a "best-guess". There's lots you can't account for until you start a task.

    Code review mostly exists because the cost of doing something wrong was high (because human coding is slow). If you can code faster, you can replace bad code faster. I.e., LLMs have cheapened the cost of deployment.

    We can't honestly assess the new way of doing things when we bring along the baggage of the old way of doing things.

  • 0xbadc0de5 an hour ago

    Fair assessment. And worth noting that in a sane world, a broad 10% productivity improvement across industry would be a once-in-a-lifetime, headline-making story, not a disappointment.

  • arisAlexis 2 hours ago

    because the human may be the bottleneck soon

  • enraged_camel an hour ago

    >> November 2024 through February 2026

    Yeah, listen... I'm glad these types of studies are being conducted. I'll say this though: the difference between pre- and post-Opus 4.5 has been night and day for me.

    From August 2025 through November 2025 I led a complex project at work where I used Sonnet 4.5 heavily. It was very helpful, but my total productivity gains were around 10-15%, which is pretty much what the study found. Once Opus came out in November though, it was like someone flipped a switch. It was much more capable at autonomous work and required way less hand-holding, intervention or course-correction. 4.6 has been even better.

    So I'm much more interested in reading studies like this over the next two years where the start period coincides with Opus 4.5's release.

  • verdverm 3 hours ago

    so far, we're still learning how to use this new tool, which is also getting better with each release

    • dude250711 2 hours ago

      I agree, it was about 10.29% earlier this year, now we are standing at least at 10.35% or something.

      • verdverm 2 hours ago

        The last one that made the rounds was negative, so we have moved more than 10% in less than 1/2 a year