It's a few points, but consumers confidence is low and debt is _really_ high, saving rates are excruciatingly low (especially when compared to developing economies).
If I had to bet, US growth should be driven by AI investment, high-earner spending and net exports (a bit like China). Being a net exporter basically mean suppressing workers wages, so that tracks.
If tariffs are stopped all at once without being careful about it, I'm a bit wary of the chain reaction. We might see negative growth for a quarter (temporarily), but since the economy is vibe-based these days, that could end up really bad.
Diversification is your friend, not just across asset classes (equity + bond + precious metals/commodities + hard assets +alts) also trying to pick a single stock to be your safe haven is not always a wise move.
I don't think this is about tariffs (or rather, 'loans' which are inevitably going to be forcibly disgorged by the courts).
The crypto market plunged yesterday right as news came out that the OpenAI 'Stargate' project was dead in the water[1]. I think this is a continuation of that crash, and it's the realization that, while everyone was busy partying, the AI bubble hit an iceberg in the North Atlantic.
It's a few points, but consumers confidence is low and debt is _really_ high, saving rates are excruciatingly low (especially when compared to developing economies).
If I had to bet, US growth should be driven by AI investment, high-earner spending and net exports (a bit like China). Being a net exporter basically mean suppressing workers wages, so that tracks.
If tariffs are stopped all at once without being careful about it, I'm a bit wary of the chain reaction. We might see negative growth for a quarter (temporarily), but since the economy is vibe-based these days, that could end up really bad.
Savings rates are higher in developing economies because there are fewer social safety nets.
Good thing we don't have to worry about a lack of social safety nets in the U.S.....
Europe would disagree. Also past US would disagree. The issue I have with US saving rate is that the last time they were this low was 2005-2007.
Saving rates are huge in Japan and they have great social safety nets.
I moved my money to Gold and Microsoft when Donald took over. I thought they were safe havens... It's been a bumpy couple of months. :(
Aren’t you still up bigly?
Diversification is your friend, not just across asset classes (equity + bond + precious metals/commodities + hard assets +alts) also trying to pick a single stock to be your safe haven is not always a wise move.
Not just classes, regions. Japan, korsa, europd are making much safwr choices than the crack thats gotten into Americas securities.
I don't think this is about tariffs (or rather, 'loans' which are inevitably going to be forcibly disgorged by the courts).
The crypto market plunged yesterday right as news came out that the OpenAI 'Stargate' project was dead in the water[1]. I think this is a continuation of that crash, and it's the realization that, while everyone was busy partying, the AI bubble hit an iceberg in the North Atlantic.
[1] https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...
600 points ... under 1.5% is not a move worthy of any discussion.
Call me at 2,000 points and we can talk.
Dow slides 800 points...https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/22/stock-market-today-live-upda...
In case you dont know, more, and it will trigger the circuit breakers...plus you have margin calls...
> more
Level 1 (7% drop): Triggers a 15-minute halt (if before 3:25 p.m. ET).
7% is a lot more than 1.6% and the plunge protection team would be active long before then.
This is the only sane take. The DOW moving 1.5% is not really news. 600 points sounds like a lot, but isn't. It's clickbait.
Careful what you wish for
Down a couple 100 points for the calendar year to date (in feburary) would not bother me in the slightest
Down 2000 points in a day tends to be just the start
There is no doubt the tarrifs are evil, but another question is why aren't companies eating the tariffs?: https://asiaviewnews.com/gigabots/threads?p=100054
Why would they? When the tariffs go into effect, companies can raise prices.
When the tariffs get rolled back, companies can enjoy the increased revenue by not lowering their prices back down.
This is a great deal for them, so they'll keep donating to Trump.
"Why aren't companies choosing to earn less money when there's an alternative?"
It will change, but it's currently down 834 points (1.68%) when I looked.