Temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) tend to be pretty terse, but they do usually call out "VIP" if they're due to someone visiting.
The type listing of "security" gets thrown around a lot, though. For example there's a permanent security TFR around the closest Air Force base to me (https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_5_8746) because they regularly fly unmanned aircraft that can't fly in insufficiently controlled airspace, and the standard airspace layout around an airport of that size isn't sufficient, so instead of making special rules for that airport, there's a "security" TFR to give air-traffic controllers extra control of what would normally be uncontrolled airspace.
It is pretty unusually to get such a short notice, and to not have instructions for exemptions.
No exemptions for medical life flights, local law enforcement, or even the military. You can read a more normal NOTAM posted for New Orleans likely for Mardi Gras (https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2231)
As a Minnesotan I wonder what this does to the deportation flights going to and from Camp East Montana.
Stopping life flights though? The supposed risk of cartels shooting down a helicopter vs the immediate risk of "this guy is going to die if we don't fly him to the nearest trauma center"... That risk calculus doesn't make sense.
I think not; it's not somewhere you can conduct a nuclear test without starting a war with Mexico.
However it is interesting to look at the TFR area in Google maps; it looks just like a nuclear test site, but the craters are natural volcanoes.
Mexico isn’t going to start a war with the US. it would last a week at most, and they’d end up glowing even more than if the us ‘downwinded’ them all year.
If Mexico went to war with America they would rely on asymmetric insurgency tactics. They have no shortage of sympathetic people in America, not just Mexican nationals but native born Americans as well. America hasn't dealt with a genuine domestic insurgency situation before.
Welcome. Tremendous to have you here. Really historic. Some people said it couldn’t happen, but I said keep an open mind, and now look. Intergalactic diplomacy. Nobody’s ever seen anything like it. We’re ready to make a deal, a fair deal, maybe the best deal in the galaxy.
Wouldn’t the Nevada Test Site be much better for this? Huge, government controlled, no major airports or cities, and moreover, already used for this sort of thing.
Fount is definitely more correct. If we're talking a baptismal font, then it's font, but if were talking a fount of knowledge, the correct term is fount with font sometimes being used but derived from fount.
"A person familiar with the notices, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly, said the action to close airspace over a major U.S. for security reasons over extended period hasn’t happened since immediately after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001."
Could it be that USA government believe that Iran might be trying to do something similar to the Ukraine operation spiderweb, where they attacked the Russian long distance bomber fleet with short distance FPV drones?
While there aren't bombers at Fort Bliss. As far as I know there are other high value targets.
Probably the least unhinged theory in this thread, but unfortunately it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If they had intel about such a threat, they'd have to move all high value assets to another base pronto. A flight ban won't stop a shady box truck from rolling into town and releasing a swarm of small drones.
(It would also be uncharacteristic of Iran to actually attack America directly, on American soil. Try to find examples of Iran doing that and you'll come up quiet short.)
You may want to recalibrate things. That’s just about the most unhinged theory here. So “Iran” is just going to go “well, shucks, I guess we can’t launch our drone swarm now that they issued a TFR.”
Not even to mention you’re ignoring the TFR far outside and away from El Paso over the Potrillo volcanic mountains
I can hear russia/iran now “darn they thwarted our plans to take out el paso and that mountain. There are absolutely zero other targets in the vicinity we can fly to. Zero in a 100 mile radius our drone has a capability to get to within 10 days. I mean if we had 11 days sure but how do they know 10 days???”
If true they would have told the Russians and the Chinese and yes everybody will know after the fact. But for various reasons they might not want to disclose ahead of time in case Trump gets talked out of it or they realize they're not ready or various other reasons (perhaps the Energy Dept. doesn't actually want to do it but they're going forward step by step hoping it gets halted).
If they already know, complaining about it in advance will soften the public shock when it happens, which is probably not what Russia and China want. They'd prefer that the rest of the world be maximally shocked and outraged by such a transgression of international norms.
They have issued orders about banning drones around ICE agents, so it's possible the terrorist agency ICE are building a base there. ICE have been given a massive funding boost so it has to go somewhere. Or its the works for some kind of military invasion of Cuba or Mexico.
Idk what the topography of the place is. If possible someone should put a telescope there and see what's up.
I wonder if this was issued by the VP’s Secret Service to the FAA directly; they got caught last year fucking with DC airspace using a beacon spoofer, and they would (presumably, they’re the SS) have the authority to issue these secretly without having to be named and answer for the impact: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/aviation-flights-whi...
(See also Die Hard 2, I suppose.)
But: of the “less simple than invading Mexico” theory (which would be trivial to confirm or refute with binoculars and telescopes) I think the nuclear testing theory is more likely, as it would be in character for the current U.S. administration to decide to turn a border region radioactive to both decrease both the quantity of, and the median fertility of, those who cross the border, especially following posturing about health care costs. Presumably the U.S. does not view itself as liable to Mexico for across-the-border downwinder’s treatment costs. Not seeing a spike in KI prices in a couple spot checks, though.
Hopefully it’s something offensive enough to finally get the world to embargo Palantir.
If there were some mundane reason for the shutdown (e.g. ATC staffing, or volcanic ash) it wouldn't be a secret, and if there were an emergency (one severe enough to ground all aircraft for so song) we would've heard or seen something.
Occam's Razor says, this order came down from Trump. If that's the case, only question remaining would be what is he planning.
There is a slim possibility that if it was airtraffic control equipment upgrades, but that would be put in the bullitin and known about long in advance, that it is just imposed with no warning is wrong and just shows how the FAA is becoming more 3 letter every day.
Here's a direct link to the notice: https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
Temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) tend to be pretty terse, but they do usually call out "VIP" if they're due to someone visiting.
The type listing of "security" gets thrown around a lot, though. For example there's a permanent security TFR around the closest Air Force base to me (https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_5_8746) because they regularly fly unmanned aircraft that can't fly in insufficiently controlled airspace, and the standard airspace layout around an airport of that size isn't sufficient, so instead of making special rules for that airport, there's a "security" TFR to give air-traffic controllers extra control of what would normally be uncontrolled airspace.
It is pretty unusually to get such a short notice, and to not have instructions for exemptions.
No exemptions for medical life flights, local law enforcement, or even the military. You can read a more normal NOTAM posted for New Orleans likely for Mardi Gras (https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2231)
As a Minnesotan I wonder what this does to the deportation flights going to and from Camp East Montana.
Maybe there's credible threat of MANPADs from the cartels? Wouldn't be the first time around, apparently.
https://old.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/faa_groun...
Stopping life flights though? The supposed risk of cartels shooting down a helicopter vs the immediate risk of "this guy is going to die if we don't fly him to the nearest trauma center"... That risk calculus doesn't make sense.
To be fair, risk calculus does not appear to be this administration's strong suit.
Nuclear weapons test? The latest test treaty just expired.
Edit: There are two TFRs, one in El Paso and one right next to it in the mountains: https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2234
I think not; it's not somewhere you can conduct a nuclear test without starting a war with Mexico. However it is interesting to look at the TFR area in Google maps; it looks just like a nuclear test site, but the craters are natural volcanoes.
Mexico isn’t going to start a war with the US. it would last a week at most, and they’d end up glowing even more than if the us ‘downwinded’ them all year.
If Mexico went to war with America they would rely on asymmetric insurgency tactics. They have no shortage of sympathetic people in America, not just Mexican nationals but native born Americans as well. America hasn't dealt with a genuine domestic insurgency situation before.
That's exactly what russia thought before invading the Ukraine.
Probably just closing the airspace for the space alien emissary.
Welcome. Tremendous to have you here. Really historic. Some people said it couldn’t happen, but I said keep an open mind, and now look. Intergalactic diplomacy. Nobody’s ever seen anything like it. We’re ready to make a deal, a fair deal, maybe the best deal in the galaxy.
If there was ever a time for a Mars Attacks style invasion it is now
Wouldn’t the Nevada Test Site be much better for this? Huge, government controlled, no major airports or cities, and moreover, already used for this sort of thing.
[dead]
This was my thought as well given the length of time of the closure.
3.6 roentgen you say?
Further commentary/speculation on this Reddit thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/ADSB/comments/1r1pqnp/10_day_tfr_is...
It includes a local city Councilmember who's says he is working to get more information.
[flagged]
First of all, you want "font". Second of all, don't do that.
Or "fount" from older, non-American English.
Fount is definitely more correct. If we're talking a baptismal font, then it's font, but if were talking a fount of knowledge, the correct term is fount with font sometimes being used but derived from fount.
Etymology 1, meaning 3: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/fount
Etymology 3: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/font
Don't do what?
[dead]
I wonder if the dormant volcanic field west of El Paso that is covered by the TFR may be similar to Iranian volcanic mountains?
Remember, the Netanyahoo just arrived in the US mere hours before this and it is always a bad omen when the devil comes to collect.
"A person familiar with the notices, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly, said the action to close airspace over a major U.S. for security reasons over extended period hasn’t happened since immediately after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001."
https://elpasomatters.org/2026/02/11/unexplained-faa-order-s...
It shows how bad the lack of available sources is, when they interview someone familiar with the type notice in general, but not this specific notice.
Could it be that USA government believe that Iran might be trying to do something similar to the Ukraine operation spiderweb, where they attacked the Russian long distance bomber fleet with short distance FPV drones? While there aren't bombers at Fort Bliss. As far as I know there are other high value targets.
Probably the least unhinged theory in this thread, but unfortunately it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If they had intel about such a threat, they'd have to move all high value assets to another base pronto. A flight ban won't stop a shady box truck from rolling into town and releasing a swarm of small drones.
(It would also be uncharacteristic of Iran to actually attack America directly, on American soil. Try to find examples of Iran doing that and you'll come up quiet short.)
You may want to recalibrate things. That’s just about the most unhinged theory here. So “Iran” is just going to go “well, shucks, I guess we can’t launch our drone swarm now that they issued a TFR.”
Not even to mention you’re ignoring the TFR far outside and away from El Paso over the Potrillo volcanic mountains
I can hear russia/iran now “darn they thwarted our plans to take out el paso and that mountain. There are absolutely zero other targets in the vicinity we can fly to. Zero in a 100 mile radius our drone has a capability to get to within 10 days. I mean if we had 11 days sure but how do they know 10 days???”
Your volcano theory is less unhinged, but most of the talk is about nuclear weapons tests, which would be enormously unhinged if that theory is true.
"Special security reason", sounds like a prelude to a special military operation?
You mean like, a three-day invasion of Mexico ?
Or just stirring up a bunch of ICE noise at the border.
Underground nuclear test and trying to mitigate the EMP grounding proximate planes?
An underground nuclear test is going to happen within ten miles of El Paso airport? Sounds unlikely
The second TFR which was released at the same time is in the NM desert directly east
Map of both: https://i0.wp.com/elpasomatters.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/...
Why wouldn't that be announced in advance? It'll be detectable internationally as soon as it happens.
If true they would have told the Russians and the Chinese and yes everybody will know after the fact. But for various reasons they might not want to disclose ahead of time in case Trump gets talked out of it or they realize they're not ready or various other reasons (perhaps the Energy Dept. doesn't actually want to do it but they're going forward step by step hoping it gets halted).
If they already know, complaining about it in advance will soften the public shock when it happens, which is probably not what Russia and China want. They'd prefer that the rest of the world be maximally shocked and outraged by such a transgression of international norms.
EMPs only occur in very high altitude tests
EMP from an underground blast? Ok bud.
They have issued orders about banning drones around ICE agents, so it's possible the terrorist agency ICE are building a base there. ICE have been given a massive funding boost so it has to go somewhere. Or its the works for some kind of military invasion of Cuba or Mexico.
Idk what the topography of the place is. If possible someone should put a telescope there and see what's up.
Reminds me of this: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-plot-plant-bombs-c...
El Paso is a hub for cargo. Probably takes some days to go through all that parcel.
https://archive.is/GCep9
According to CNN the entire airspace is closed, not just the airport https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/11/us/faa-el-paso-texas-flig...
It's closed below 18,000 ft, over a 10 nautical mile radius: https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
Yep. TFR was issued three hours ago.
https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
I wonder if this was issued by the VP’s Secret Service to the FAA directly; they got caught last year fucking with DC airspace using a beacon spoofer, and they would (presumably, they’re the SS) have the authority to issue these secretly without having to be named and answer for the impact: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/aviation-flights-whi...
(See also Die Hard 2, I suppose.)
But: of the “less simple than invading Mexico” theory (which would be trivial to confirm or refute with binoculars and telescopes) I think the nuclear testing theory is more likely, as it would be in character for the current U.S. administration to decide to turn a border region radioactive to both decrease both the quantity of, and the median fertility of, those who cross the border, especially following posturing about health care costs. Presumably the U.S. does not view itself as liable to Mexico for across-the-border downwinder’s treatment costs. Not seeing a spike in KI prices in a couple spot checks, though.
Hopefully it’s something offensive enough to finally get the world to embargo Palantir.
If there were some mundane reason for the shutdown (e.g. ATC staffing, or volcanic ash) it wouldn't be a secret, and if there were an emergency (one severe enough to ground all aircraft for so song) we would've heard or seen something.
Occam's Razor says, this order came down from Trump. If that's the case, only question remaining would be what is he planning.
Launching the invasion of Canada and Greenland perhaps..
Aren't those countries thousands of miles away from El Paso, Texas?
Well you take this sharpie and draw a line and bam direct line of attack - if it works for hurricanes it will work for war plans
Please understand, Geography is only taught for optional extra credit in American schools.
(I wish this were a joke.)
Cuba could be one. While Florida is closer, it's possible due to El Paso being considered highly isolated.
If it is for a military reason (very doubtful at this point), there is a country that is literally 0 miles away from El Paso.
Mexico is also possible.
Invasion of Mexico is also possible ...
>President Donald Trump said US forces will "start now hitting land" in Mexico targeting drug cartels
https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/09/trump-says-us-to-start-n...
(Jan 2026)
There is a slim possibility that if it was airtraffic control equipment upgrades, but that would be put in the bullitin and known about long in advance, that it is just imposed with no warning is wrong and just shows how the FAA is becoming more 3 letter every day.
"Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker"