China Moon Mission: Aiming for 2030 Lunar Landing

(spectrum.ieee.org)

65 points | by rbanffy 2 hours ago ago

55 comments

  • JumpCrisscross an hour ago

    Is there a good, consolidated technical description of their mission architecture?

    (Apparently Artemis II is now pushed off the March [1]. Alongside Starship’s next scheduled launch [2].)

    [1] https://www.nasa.gov/blogs/missions/2026/02/03/nasa-conducts...

    [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches

  • hdivider an hour ago

    This space race is different for one core reason: China is more stable than the Soviet Union was in the 1960s.

    If we beat the Chinese somehow, I don't think they'll just dismantle their space program and focus on Earth. They'll keep going, and they have the economic base to expand their program.

    I think we're seeing the beginning of a new kind of space race. It's likely to be much longer term and grander in scale over time, as we compete for the best spots on the Moon and the first human landing on Mars in the decades to come.

    • JumpCrisscross an hour ago

      > China is more stable than the Soviet Union was in the 1960s

      Xi literally just purged “the country’s top military leader, Gen. Zhang Youxia, and an associate, Gen. Liu Zhenli” [1].

      This is the mark of a dictator. Not the Soviet Union at its finest.

      [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/us/politics/china-xi-mili...

      • smallmancontrov an hour ago

        Did the USSR ever manufacture 80% of the stuff in your house?

        • JumpCrisscross 32 minutes ago

          > Did the USSR ever manufacture 80% of the stuff in your house?

          China makes about a third of the world’s stuff [1]. Soviet Union probably peaked around a fifth, though it might have been as high as a fourth.

          China is undoubtedly stronger today, absolutely and relative to the U.S., than the Soviets ever were. But history is littered with self-obsessed autocrats ruining a good thing.

          Part of what makes the world today frustrating is both America and China are squandering their advantages in remarkably-similar ways, with each regime’s defenders speaking almost identically.

          [1] https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/china-worlds-sole-manufacturi...

        • NoMoreNicksLeft 32 minutes ago

          If they had manufactured 80% of the stuff in my house, wouldn't Reagan have concluded that they had won the war before it started? A country that manufactures 80% of the things you need to live might just decide to not sell them to you if you misbehave.

      • RobotToaster an hour ago

        There's a better article about it in the WSJ of all places https://archive.is/48m3F

        Missing from both is that Zhang Youxia was the last senior PLA leader to have seen frontline action in the Sino-Vietnamese war.

        • dragonelite 25 minutes ago

          Vietnam frontline experience is irrelevant in 2026, when its more drone dominated.

          Im sure China has plenty of observers/volunteers embedded at the Russian side in the SMO making plenty of notes, reports, and get modern warfare experience..

          • largbae 2 minutes ago

            All frontline experience is valuable. It reminds the leader that in war, real people, people on your own side, people that you know, people that you will miss, will die.

      • janalsncm 25 minutes ago

        Xi appointed himself president for life in 2018, almost six years ago. China wasnt exactly a bastion of liberal democracy before then either. Sacking a top general is basically par for the course.

        • JumpCrisscross 19 minutes ago

          > Sacking a top general is basically par for the course

          Yes and no. Military readiness and potency doesn’t require liberal democracy. It does require skill and command, and sacking military leaders for political reasons is how powers from Athens to the Soviets screwed themselves.

      • hdivider an hour ago

        I agree there is a lot of chaos over there, and numerous challenges. But I don't see China collapsing anytime soon, nothing like the Soviet Union. It's going to be a long-term space race.

        • JumpCrisscross an hour ago

          > I don't see China collapsing anytime soon, nothing like the Soviet Union

          I don’t either. But the Soviet Union’s space programme lost its steam in the 1970s. (Venus was its last ambitious achievement.)

          If China gets bogged down in Taiwan because Xi fired every military expert who might disagree with him, that’s going to cost them the space race. (Same as if America decides to replicate the Sino-Soviet split with Europe over Greenland. We can’t afford a competitive space programme at that point.)

          • adventured 34 minutes ago

            There's a question as to whether China's surplus capability is enough to overflow the deprivation that a space program might suffer in a chaos Taiwan scenario.

            Their resources and capabilities are obviously substantial and sustained (not going anywhere). The USSR had only a few patches of sustained serious economic output, the rest of the time was rolling from one disaster to another, one deprivation after another.

            It seems entirely plausible that China getting bogged down in Taiwan wouldn't be enough to deprive them of a run to the Moon. The US was able to sustain NASA during Iraq-Afghanistan, and go to the Moon during the Vietnam War (plus cultural chaos).

            That said, China isn't going to get bogged down in Taiwan. It's going to unfortunately be easier than most are imagining. China will ultimately regret not moving on the island sooner when they see how easy it's going to be to take it and how weak the US response will be (the US can't sustain a stand-off with China in that region for more than a few weeks before folding, unless it's willing to go to full war mode economically (which it's not)).

            • JumpCrisscross 29 minutes ago

              > seems entirely plausible that China getting bogged down in Taiwan wouldn't be enough to deprive them of a run to the Moon. The US was able to sustain NASA during Iraq-Afghanistan

              We probably lost basing on the Moon because Bush went into Iraq.

              China getting bogged down in Taiwan means more political repression, more restiveness in Xinjiang and—if New Delhi isn’t totally stupid—needing to prop up Pakistan and its strategic fronts in the Himalayas. It also almost certainly means demand destruction in Europe, the EU and ASEAN.

              > China isn't going to get bogged down in Taiwan. It's going to unfortunately be easier than most are imagining

              The same people saying this today had hot takes on Kyiv falling in ‘21.

              China invading Taiwan demilitarized Japan and India. It fundamentally changes its doorstep in ways that incur costs. To the Soviets, Afghanistan. To America, Iraq and possibly Greenland. To China, Taiwan.

              (And let’s be clear: this is a vanity project for Xi. Taiwan would have voted, eventually, to peacefully join China if pre-Xi trends continued. But he needed it on his watch. Hence the stupidity.)

      • wtodr an hour ago

        This is the same trite bullshit we’ve been hearing for decades. Look at where China is today.

        • tartoran an hour ago

          Keep in mind that China is not where it is today because of Xi. He could take it further for sure but so can he press the wrong buttons. It remains to be seen how China fares in the next few decades.

          • RobotToaster 19 minutes ago

            He's doing a better job than Zhao Ziyang, that's for sure.

          • fakedang 42 minutes ago

            Yep, China was on a massive and insane growth trajectory prior to Xi. Xi's policies and constant banging of war drums at Taiwan's door has cost China massively in terms of foreign investment and even knowledge transfer opportunities (by the ever-gullible West).

        • baxtr an hour ago

          The question is rather: Where could China have been today if it started opening up decades earlier?

          • JumpCrisscross an hour ago

            > Where could China have been today if it started opening up decades earlier?

            Or without Mao being a trash fire of a leader. (Flip side: where would they be without Deng or Zemin, or others in the CCP who put nation above personal interest? The folks Xi is killing because they threaten his personal interests.)

            • baxtr an hour ago

              Maybe the combination of capitalism + democracy is so successful because it aligns the incentives of leaders and the masses best (to the extent possible).

              • JumpCrisscross 22 minutes ago

                My takeaway from China is democracy is less important than political competition. Between Mao and Xi, the CCP had the latter without the former. Today, America has the former and is struggling to keep the latter.

        • subw00f 33 minutes ago

          It's amazing. The American president is quite literally creating a parallel military force to jail and kill people on the streets, they're arresting opposing journalists, politicians, pressuring tv channels and news organizations to fire people, invading countries without congressional approval, threatening allies with annexation for no fucking reason, dismantling any social programs left, and all of that led by a proven pedophile billionaire that was the customer and friend of a huge human trafficker, as were most of his billionaire friends who he favors with absolutely no shame.

          And this is just the latest news coming from over there. I won't mention the fact that there are people alive today who couldn't drink from the same fountain as other people because their skin is dark. It was never fucking great.

          So if you are American and still talk all this shit about China being a dictatorship and authoritarian this and “purge” that, I wish you would honestly shut the fuck up. Really. You are in no position to have an informed opinion on this because all of your information is force fed down your throat by half a dozen mega companies that are in bed with your regime.

          So yeah, I'm sure China has a lot of issues, but if you didn't live there for some time or even speak the language for that matter, just shut the fuck the up.

          • elzbardico 17 minutes ago

            The US is not an autocracy, is a mix between a plutocracy and a gerontocracy.

          • JumpCrisscross 25 minutes ago

            > if you are American and still talk all this shit about China being a dictatorship and authoritarian this and “purge” that, I wish you would honestly shut the fuck up. Really. You are in no position to have an informed opinion on this because all of your information is force fed

            Bit defensive there, eh?

            China is an autocracy and Xi is acting in the predictably self-destructive ways a dictator does. The U.S. is heading down that same path, with Trump practically mimicking Xi. N = 2 doesn’t weaken an argument. And folks who lived through the Nazis saying they see similar veins today doesn’t undermine their credibility.

            (The hilarity of it is if you take your comment and replace China and America with partisan or pro-American coding, you could pop it out of Hegseth’s office and it would be right at home. Your comment almost seals the point that Xi is all the problems of MAGA, except polling China instead.)

            • subw00f 11 minutes ago

              Yes, I'm aware how ignorant I may sound, but it's so goddamn frustrating to read this kind of bullshit everytime I come to an American platform.

              Ok, China is an autocracy, right? Could you explain to me how China conduct elections? Can you explain to me how they approve laws? Do they have a constitution? A justice system? Try answering these questions without much looking up and even if you do, please note the sources. No need to answer me really. Just ask yourself whether you know this or not and how qualified are you to actually label a HUGE state like China with one single heavily charged word.

        • JumpCrisscross an hour ago

          > the same trite bullshit we’ve been hearing for decades

          Nope. It isn’t. Xi has ruled China like a dictator that breaks the tradition of intraparty competition the CCP has had since Mao.

          When Xi ended his Wolf Warrior nonsense it seemed to signal a reset. Now we have this nonsense.

          > Look at where China is today

          Look at where America is today. Both are richer than they’ve ever been. More militarily potent than ever. Both are growing their economies, militaries and territorial ambitions. Both have serious issues, including the gerontocratic oligarchic consolidation of power at the expense of national interests.

          • blibble 18 minutes ago

            > Look at where America is today. Both are richer than they’ve ever been. More militarily potent than ever.

            just don't look at the first derivative vs china

            • JumpCrisscross 13 minutes ago

              The argument is the reflexive defensiveness works-and is raised—in both cases. Premature declarations of victory have never been a historic sign of strength.

          • SilverElfin an hour ago

            Not that I disagree, but I’m curious how you define national interests.

            • JumpCrisscross 41 minutes ago

              > curious how you define national interests

              My metric would be what the country’s population today and weighted populations of the future, if they could weigh in, would choose.

              It’s possible to frame ex post facto and impossible to pin down in the present. And it’s inherently subjective and culturally relative. But it’s useful to reason with, including for finding patterns in history.

              One pattern is the cost of corruption. If a leader is making billions off their power, they’re putting person about polity. That’s currently true in America [1] and China [2][3]. The difference is America has a chance to fix that in ‘28. China used to rotate leaders. But Xi fucked that up. (Note the language similarity between the above comment and how MAGA defends itself. “Trite bullshit.” Beijing has a hidden MACA problem, it’s just had a tougher time dealing with it because Xi reveres Mao.)

              [1] https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/spy-sheikh-secret-stake-...

              [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/18/world/asia/chinas-preside...

              [3] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/mar/20/us-intel-sa...

      • ck2 an hour ago

        btw just for comparison over in the US

        Trump has purged dozens of Generals, the head Admiral of the Navy and Coast Guard, head of NSA and Cyber Command and many other top-level officials in the military

        and there are only 1,000 women in various special forces (had to pass same physical tests as men) but he is trying to get rid of them all too

        Now that is the mark of dictator, agreed

        • adventured 30 minutes ago

          Trump was elected by the people of the United States. Twice. Soundly. Not a dictator.

          Xi was never elected to his position by the people of China.

          Being a bad president isn't the same thing as being a dictator.

          • JumpCrisscross 18 minutes ago

            > Trump was elected by the people of the United States. Twice. Soundly. Not a dictator

            Trump is not a dictator, but not because he was elected, but because of our courts and federal system (and theoretically Congress).

    • arjie an hour ago

      Do we already know what the best spots on the Moon are or will that be determined by the early missions doing survey?

      • hdivider an hour ago

        Yes to both I'd say. The south polar region will be contested because of the presence of water-ice and abundant sunlight.

  • PassingClouds an hour ago

    It is interesting to see who will get there first. China seems to be right on target with their schedule, but the US is being more ambitious, this also looks a bit more fragile on execution.

    I long suspect Blue Origin will be the first US based to touch down as Starship is just too complicated to get it done in the next 2-3 years, but that doesnt mean even the 2028 landing is assured.

    Space exploration had been fairly low key for decades but the last decade has been something to see.

    • chihuahua an hour ago

      Maybe my date calculations are off, but I think the people that landed on the moon on July 20, 1969 got there first. According to my calculations, if China lands people on the moon in 2030, that will be approximately 61 years later. The people that got there 61 years earlier can be reasonably said to have gotten there first.

      Oddly enough, the same country also accomplished the second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth landing on the moon by humans. So if all goes well, China can be extremely triumphant with their highly anticipated seventh place trophy.

      • nancyminusone a few seconds ago

        The people from 61 years ago are either extremely old or dead. Of the other three-quarters of the world population born after December 19, 1972, none have made it there; it will be a first for them.

      • kube-system 33 minutes ago

        Neither the current space race nor the cold-war era space race have anything to do with planting a flag in a history book. They are geopolitical dick measuring contests of contemporary power.

        The current question isn't "is it possible?", it is "who can pull it off today?"

      • XorNot an hour ago

        And as we all know, successful enterprises are always the ones which do something once and then never again for 61 years. /S

        • chihuahua an hour ago

          They did it 5 more times. Are the goalposts moving so that you have to do something 7 times before it counts?

          They stopped doing more moon missions in the 70s because people lost interest very quickly and nobody cared anymore.

          • XorNot 10 minutes ago

            No I'm poking fun at the defensive reflex of Americans to get very upset at the notion anyone else will go to the moon. Because in context, who will get their first is the relevant question again because no one has the capability anymore.

            It was perfectly clear in context that the OP was talking about the new space race where the question is which modern superpower will get there first. It's just hilarious that so many Americans immediately begin talking about how really they got their truly first, in an effort to pretend they couldn't understand and change the question to one which doesn't hurt their ego.

            The America which landed on the moon in the 1960s is dead and buried. And the America which said it's going to land on the moon again hasn't done it yet and it's not clear that it can.

      • throwui an hour ago

        One was coloniser and another one was a colony. That's why 61y gap

        • JumpCrisscross an hour ago

          > One was coloniser and another one was a colony

          This is an America-centric geopolitical model with zero predictive power.

          China annexed Tibet in 1951 [1]. Xinjiang has been fighting colonization from the Qings, Soviets, Nationalists and PRC for over a century.

          [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Tibet_by_China

          • RobotToaster 2 minutes ago

            It was part of China since 1720, it briefly declared independence in 1913 but that was recognised by no foreign nation [0]

            [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibet

          • chihuahua an hour ago

            I think GP was referring to the fact that the United States is made up of former colonies of Great Britain, but that was such a long time ago, I don't see how it matters for the moon landing.

            • JumpCrisscross an hour ago

              It’s a neo-leftist international model that divides everyone into colonizer and colonized nations without particular regard for history or reality. The former are bad and powerful. The latter weak and victims.

              It offers no predictions, policy prescriptions beyond railing and an infinity of excuses for justifying pretty much anything for the latter and against the former, down to subgroups within each nation.

        • chihuahua an hour ago

          Indeed, the 13 colonies that formed the United States in 1776 were a colony of Great Britain up to that point, but what does that have to do with the moon landing? In the 1960s, neither country was a colony of any other country.

          But regardless, I will congratulate China wholeheartedly on its 7th place, if and when that happens.

        • wtodr an hour ago

          Based

    • baxtr an hour ago

      Are you talking about Mars? Moon happened a while back.

      • tartoran an hour ago

        Mars is Elon Musk fantasy. Manned missions to Mars are extremely dangerous and pointless at this time.

    • georgeburdell an hour ago

      Watch China’s announcements year to year and you’ll see their plans do change. Long March 9 has gone through enough design iterations that I wouldn’t even call it the same rocket anymore

  • spiritplumber 36 minutes ago

    If another space race is what it takes, then I welcome it.