58 comments

  • da_grift_shift an hour ago

    "NFTs show relatively small groups of tens of thousands of people can work together collectively for a common good" - Garry Tan, 23 March 2022

    https://x.com/garrytan/status/1506769562468958210

    "If you own an NFT..." you are an innovator among innovators. - Garry Tan, 30 September 2021 [quote tweet]

    https://x.com/garrytan/status/1443460589049704450

    Web3 vs Earlier incarnations technology adoption curve [image tweet]

    https://x.com/garrytan/status/1521530531568963584

    "airdrops going mainstream could truly upend some % of the centralized ad-based economy of Web2" - Garry Tan, 25 Dec 2021

    https://x.com/garrytan/status/1474826162408808448

    • jmathai 31 minutes ago

      Was it really just 4 years ago that NFTs were "the next big thing"?

      The tweets don't age well in hindsight but sometimes there are technologies which feel like they might break through but never do. Having been bullish on the concept of NFTs doesn't make a strong argument for or against having good intuition of breakthrough innovation.

      • 4er_transform 21 minutes ago

        NFTs from first principles looked like a bad idea even then. They solved 0 problems. When a technology solves 0 problems, it’s doomed to fail.

      • nyc_data_geek1 23 minutes ago

        Having been bullish on NFTs, which were never more than hype in the primary use case promulgated for them, is absolutely a strong argument against having good intuition of breakthrough innovation. It demonstrates an inability to differentiate between hype and utility.

        NFT's for real estate ownership, container tracking etc. could still have some form of utility. But what people think of when they hear NFT's isn't that, it's shitty monkey jpg's.

        NFT's were never the next big thing, except for a very specific subset of very gullible idiots.

        • PaulDavisThe1st 14 minutes ago

          > Having been bullish on NFTs, which were never more than hype in the primary use case promulgated for them, is absolutely a strong argument against having good intuition of breakthrough innovation.

          I always thought that NFTs were completely ridiculous and essentially nothing but hype. But then again, I thought that amazon wasn't going to work either, when I was there building it, so I'm not sure that even in a given individual "good intuition for breakthrough innovation" is a unitary thing.

      • almostdeadguy 22 minutes ago

        Why are we pretending like his comments about any of these things are as a neutral observer instead of as an investor cheerleading his investments? Why should anyone take Gary Tan seriously as a futurist?

        • jacquesm 17 minutes ago

          Well, that's a good question but the answer isn't going to be to anybody's liking. Because he's got money. People equate having money with wisdom rather than with intelligence and intelligence is dual use, you can use it for good and you can use it for bad just as easily. It may lead to wisdom but that's fairly rare. Most of the time it just leads to money.

          So people will follow those with money (or that they perceive to have money) without much critical thought about where that is going to lead them, they're hoping for wisdom but may end up being misled. That's why all of these ultra wealthy folk turned on a dime when the political weather changed, they don't really have principles, they just want more zeros.

    • nextaccountic 35 minutes ago

      When I see this kind of comment, I read it as a disclosure that he invested in crypto and NFTs

    • alephnerd 36 minutes ago

      One of the things us VCs do is

      1. Advertise our thesis by building a narrative

      2. Evangelize our portfolio

      By posting a narrative comparing Zoho against a vibe coded product while also showcasing some of YC's star vibe-coded products, Garry is able to both craft a narrative that helps support YC's portfolio as well as bring a couple of people to start thinking about Vibecoding. It also acts as an indirect attack on G-Suite without calling out a massive organization like Alphabet by name, which YC needs to coexist with because a large portion of YC portfolio companies will either be acquired by Alphabet or will take or have taken some amount of funding from Alphabet and Alphabet related personal, and Alphabet personal are LPs in YC.

      It doesn't matter if the take is right or wrong - it's started a discussion, and maybe one or two Zoho customers have now heard of a couple YC products to consider (outside of the HN bubble, very few people know about vibe coding or AI/ML).

      All businesses do this, and knowing Zoho, they will probably leverage this as well as a way to market data sovereigninty and "make in India" by raising the specter of the big bad American capitalist trying to undermine a bootstrapped Indian company.

      Anyhow, Zoho has built it's own foundation model [0] and offers an Agents marketplace for domain-specific agents [1]. I'm not sure if can compete head on against a LLaMa or DeepSeek on from sheer performance perspective, but it's good enough (something which a lot of engineers forget is more important than being perfect) to build a "data sovereignty" and "tech nationalism" story which they will absolutely run with as a result.

      [0] - https://www.zoho.com/zia/llm.html

      [1] - https://www.zoho.com/zia/agents/

      • noobermin 15 minutes ago

        The only thing about this constant discussion about the metas and what not is that clearly everyone knows this, so who is this supposed to be for? I'm a peanut gallery member here, not a VC or a person who needs to appeal to VCs honestly, but then you can take my opinion as an unbiased third party... I could have guessed 1 and 2 are were motives for this kind of talk. But...clearly everyone else who actually cares about this game because it affects their livelihood or money is already aware VCs do 1 and 2, and unless you're exceptionally impressionable, it wouldn't work on you, no?

        I have a theory but the primary one is not very flattering to those involved.

        • bgwalter 2 minutes ago

          It's for the press and the general public who don't really understand the tech. The hype can usually be sustained for around two years.

          The press nearly always obliges in the first year. It works for wars and pandemics, too. In the second year the first dissenters begin to show up. We are now in past the stage of opinion reversal, where the press and the public mostly hate "AI".

          This is also why it is wrong to compare "AI" to the early Internet. After the Internet bubble burst, the public still liked the Internet.

        • alephnerd 9 minutes ago

          > who is this supposed to be for

          1. A number of media and substack articles about a Twitter beef that becomes a submarine article for Replit, Emergent Labs, and Taskade

          2. A couple executives who may have not heard about these startups (this is actually very common outside the tech IC bubble) and will now ask their tech teams to contact them to see if they fit their needs

          3. LPs who invested in YC by further reshoring Garry and YC's entire investment thesis.

          > it wouldn't work on you...

          It doesn't matter that it doesn't work on me - everyone does this form of narrative building (that's the entire point of Strategic Comms teams) so you have to play the game because that's how a Nash Equilibrium be.

          Building a zeitgeist is a core part of demand gen, and yea it is transparent and tacky, but even 1 conversion for what was basically 1 hour of drafting makes the RoI positive.

    • presentation an hour ago

      [flagged]

  • yoavm 43 minutes ago

    > Why pay $30/seat/month for over bundled SaaS when soon even nontech ops ppl can vibe-code a custom solution in a weekend?

    I don't get his suggestion. I'm paying Zoho for email hosting. What am I even supposed to vibe-code successfully for me to drop Zoho? There's no shortage of open-source IMAP/SMTP servers, in fact Zoho is probably using them too. Sure I can spin one myself, but I'm paying for Zoho for the *service*, not the software.

    • sd9 22 minutes ago

      The whole point of money is to pay for problems to go away.

      No idea how good Zoho is, but if you can pay $X/month and never even think about the problem ever again, then that is compelling, and the value of that depends on the customer.

    • iso1631 35 minutes ago

      I used to run my own smtp server, but it's far easier to point my MX records and let someone else do it.

      If zoho go bust I'm sure another company will replace them.

  • giarc an hour ago

    Will they lose a small customer or two to custom vibe coded solutions, yes. Will they be "competed away" due to vibe coding, definitely not.

    You have to remember that no one gets fired for selecting an established software provider. Zoho is a 'safe' pick for SMBs because you know it will work compared to some custom CRM that Bill from accounting vibe coded in an afternoon.

    • fakedang 34 minutes ago

      Why would a small customer bother with building their own Zoho solution even? I mean, if an SMB did that, I'd call them morons.

      Zoho has its flaws, but for small businesses, Zoho is a godsend. If an SMB doesn't want to pay for Zoho, I'd seriously ask them to recheck if they're making any money whatsoever.

      Moreover Zoho is one of the few platforms out there that's really intuitive. Do this, do this and that, and you're good to go. Compared to setting up something like Zendesk or Freshdesk or Xero or QuickBooks , etc.

      • gboss 17 minutes ago

        I agree that Zoho is more intuitive than Zendesk and 10-20x cheaper, but that’s a really low bar. However, when we evaluated Zoho this past spring to replace our b2c 60-100 seat month Zendesk contract, we found Zoho to be really disjointed where every app was configured and looked different. The pricing and lack of contract was great but it seemed like different things were tacked together like how an agent would have to have two tabs open to take calls through their telephony app and answer chats through their B2B oriented messaging app. When our new contract for Customer Service expires I’ll check them out again but I think they need to standardize and simplify the look and feel of there apps and merge some if they want to move up market. For small businesses with a shoestring budget they’re a no brainier though!

  • ks2048 5 minutes ago

    > Why pay $30/seat/month for over bundled SaaS when soon even nontech ops ppl can vibe-code a custom solution in a weekend?

    Seems ironic to post that - doesn't that same logic imply that most YC companies are worthless?

  • andsoitis 40 minutes ago

    > competed away by people building their own custom software built by people using @Replit @emergentlabs and @Taskade

    Why do you need 3 platforms to vibe code a solution? Are each one of them not good enough?

    • mlboss 32 minutes ago

      I bet all are Y Combinator companies.

      • andsoitis 13 minutes ago

        Which makes it even more damning. Vibe coding platforms are software solutions themselves, which means they are subject to the same logic.

  • kklisura 25 minutes ago

    > ...when soon even nontech ops ppl can vibe-code a custom solution in a weekend.

    These statements are so out of touch with reality, I generally wonder where will YC be in 5-10 years.

  • ne8il 34 minutes ago

    Let's say I'm a manufacturer of widgets, and instead of buying an off-the-shelf CRM I decide to have the resident IT whiz on the team vibe-code a custom solution for our needs. Now I'm a manufacturer of widgets AND a CRM SaaS shop, responsible for software maintenance/deployment/reliability/feature roadmap/bug remediation. I guess the idea is that AI agents will take care of all of those things too - to which I guess my perspective is "good luck! I hope that works out."

  • andsoitis 11 minutes ago

    > competed away by people building their own custom software built by people using @Replit @emergentlabs and @Taskade

    Using same logic, why use Replit, EmergentLabs, or Taskade when you can vibe code your own vibe code platform?

  • HardwareLust 12 minutes ago

    This is the guy that said NFTs were the next "big thing"?

  • alberth 17 minutes ago

    Technology alone rarely wins a market ... success usually comes from marketing, referrals, and network effects.

    It’s the same reason why vibe coding a better version of Airbnb (even if it’s just a simple CRUD app) wouldn’t actually threaten Airbnb as a business. The product isn’t the moat; the ecosystem is.

  • antiloper 41 minutes ago

    Obviously not? Accounting software has to work or the IRS (or your local equivalent) will come after you. Zoho "just works".

  • mns an hour ago

    Considering how much money they invested in countless AI VS Code forks and other vibe coding platforms, he needs to hype up the market.

  • villosil 37 minutes ago

    Well, then I claim that it will be the companies themselves that try to replace Zoho (or any other CRM for that matter) with a vibe-coded replacement, the ones going out of business. As someone said once: focus on what makes your beer taste better.

  • francisofascii 42 minutes ago

    I kinda hope so. When I started my career companies and orgs had in-house developers to make custom software for the org. The developers understood the business and were part of the culture. Then the labor market got tight, developers left for higher paying jobs, managers became afraid of going custom because they would lose the developers, so they starting buying overpriced SAAS products and contractors. If the job market is flush again with capable devs armed with AI, maybe we can go back to in-house developers again.

  • ZiiS 31 minutes ago

    He said `would be first`; I 100% agree. If vibe coding was going to take over the world, then Zoho going out of business is a very good leading indicator. As soon as that happens, I will invest heavily; till then it is safe to ignore it.

  • jacquesm 34 minutes ago

    It's 'Garry' and besides that guy gets too much airtime already.

    • mrweasel 29 minutes ago

      It's the first I've ever heard of him. Still have no idea who he is, but yes, still to much airtime.

      • Macha 21 minutes ago

        CEO of the investment firm that owns this site

  • an hour ago
    [deleted]
  • jmathai 28 minutes ago

    > Why pay $30/seat/month for over bundled SaaS when soon even nontech ops ppl can vibe-code a custom solution in a weekend?

    Feels very disingenuous. I'm a huge proponent of AI drastically increasing efficiency of creating software but we're a long ways away from nontech people replacing and supporting collaboration tools used by medium sized businesses.

  • 34 minutes ago
    [deleted]
  • joshstrange an hour ago

    I feel like I've seen his name a few times but I don't know much about him at all but I can tell you from that 1 tweet he has no clue what he is talking about.

    Bozo bit flipped.

    I don't use Zoho but I've played with it before, the thought that you can vibe code up something like that (which is reliable) is laughable.

    From the title I thought they were saying that /using/ vibe coding at Zoho would lead to them going out of business (something much more plausible).

    • jonners00 an hour ago

      He runs Y combinator. This is his site!

      • itg an hour ago

        Amazing how someone so clueless can be in a such an influential position.

        • tpetry 31 minutes ago

          He is not clueless. He is just pushing a batshit crazy narrative because they are invested in tons of vibe coding startups.

      • giancarlostoro an hour ago

        Really everyone thinks of it as Paul Graham (and dang's I suppose...) site I do wonder if the CEO of YC even comes on here much? I assume PG does not come on here much outside of viewing threads here and there.

        • joshstrange an hour ago

          This.

          If I think about who's "site" HN is then PG or Dang are front of mind. I know Dang is /just/ a mod but he is who is visible. I've never once cared who actually ran YC, I didn't care when Sam Altman ran it and I don't care about Gary Tan either, they are 100% immaterial to the discussions that happen on this site IMHO.

      • joshstrange an hour ago

        I stand by what I said. To think Zoho or companies like it will be out of business due to vibe coding tools is absurd given what's currently available.

        I guess this is just yet another YC ceo/whatever that I care little for (See also: Sam Altman).

      • jacquesm 31 minutes ago

        So what? PG made this, Sam Altman futzed around with it, Geoff was ok (looking from a distance, obviously) and Tan is at best a caretaker. Note Tan is ex Palantir and as such good buddies with Thiel and a lot of other despicables. That they're wealthy is no reason to look up to them.

      • q3k 42 minutes ago

        And I'm here to clown on him and his kind.

      • SanjayMehta 41 minutes ago

        Aha.

        Explains a lot.

  • zkmon 38 minutes ago

    Vibe coding can only affect companies that depend on slow-coding.

  • mlboss 34 minutes ago

    Most probably all VCs will go out of business as the cost of creating software companies approaches zero. The need to create an army of software developers is no longer needed.

    • alephnerd 15 minutes ago

      Not really.

      In such a hypothetical world, it would actually be much easier for us to fund companies simply because now the only thing we are funding is just sales, demand gen, and projected compute.

      We provide funding so businesses that are the right fit can scale out the functions that they need. In some cases it's expanding engineering, in other cases it's expanding sales and demand gen, and in other cases is to subsidize a major purchase such as cloud credits or GPUs.

  • bgwalter 33 minutes ago

    Pichai should be fearing for his position after all the misallocation of capital and the low quality of Google "AI".

    Of course he endorses slop coding (Pichai's endorsement is criticized by the Zoho founder for those who do not click through to X).

    Zoho will now be a very interesting company for the vast majority of people who hate "AI". I'll have to check it out.

  • hombre_fatal an hour ago

    He will be right at some point. The question is when.

    I'm already vibe coding complex things like GUIs, my desktop environment (NixOS), and last week a Wayland layer shell client that would have taken me quite a lot of work if I had to do them myself from scratch from docs, and I have 20 years of software experience.

    The things I spend time building and polishing today with my own time are just next year's vibe-coded minutia.

    Some people are going to have a very hard time swallowing this pill, though.

    • encyclopedism 19 minutes ago

      One doesn't even need to vibe code. Zoho type apps e.g. mail/smtp already exist there are ton's of free open source options. You can one-click deploy them on AWS/Azure already. To be clear I understand reducing friction is also a 'feature' that users would be willing to pay for.

      Longer term AI platforms such as Replit could offer easily deployment of ready made app templates e.g. a CRM. However you still need to pay for them much the same as paying Zoho, prices could be lower. But you still need to pay for them and on a monthly basis too. Vibe coding platforms will still be a SaaS business.

    • delaminator 36 minutes ago

      Yeah, likewise. I didn't type this comment. I created my own Alexa-style Voice to text typist, using whisper and Rust. I've never typed a line of Rust in my life. making projects that would have taken months before. I'll do them in an evening, using my iPhone. This morning alone I've created a Auto Green Screen Program for my webcam. so I can put my own effects on it, like in Teams. - while I was at work doing my normal day. just dropping in now and again and giving it another prompt.

    • bamboozled 20 minutes ago

      I use Claude Code on a daily basis, I've never got anything for "free" from it. So yeah, there is still a lot of coding involved, maybe just less typing.

    • iso1631 32 minutes ago

      Where am I going to host my mail server? And handle the backups?

      Surely AWS's overpriced lockin stuff will be "vide coded" away far faster than smaller companies