When I grew up in Germany it always made me proud that 100% of taxis were Mercedes Benz. If a car can withstand the rough demands of taxi service, it has to be good. And even in South America back then German cares were ubiquitous, especially Volkswagen.
When I was in Brazil this spring[*] I rode a lot of Uber and they were 100% BYD - 100%, no exception. It's not that my head hadn't known that German auto was dead but seeing it playing out like this hit hard.
BYD recently went live with a highly automated, large scale manufacturing facility in Brazil. The BYD Dolphin Mini sells for ~$22,500, and the manufacturer already has 200 showrooms open across the country.
To be fair taxis have unique requirements. Taxis in the UK were like 80% Prius for a long time because they drive very long distances and hybrids are very cost effective for city driving where you're doing a lot of low speed driving and don't have convenient recharging opportunities. But most people aren't in that situation.
Not just Tesla, all established brands we know are left behind. I never understood Volkswagen's pivot from 'wait and See's to 'were inversing billions' to 'we were too late, abort'. Largest brands n terms of units, completely left behind in an emerging segment that's already dominating it's largest market (China). So many executives in the industry just didn't see the writing on the wall. I don't what GM was thinking, trying a truck as their first platform for EVs, but it's another indicator. This industry has the worst executives. Just don't see the writing on the wall.
This is what makes the innovator's dilemma repeat itself so many times in so many industries. It's not that the incumbent companies don't see the new technology; it's that they're so entrenched in what they know how to do that pivoting to the new technology is basically a Hail Mary no matter how you do it. Do it too early and your shareholders are going to think you're crazy. Do it too late, and you're risking entering a new market as the chaser with a bad hand of company, employees, and board that don't have any idea of what they're doing.
The small part in me understands that, they are banking on three things 1) oil will be cheap because of EV boom and hence EV dominance will be slow and could take couple of decades 2) electric Energy cost will rise significantly because so much charging and energy infrastructure required. 3) Battery will reach at par with gasoline and matured standardised comodity, that will be the perfect time to enter.
I think #1 will probably play out to a certain extent. Perhaps as an oscillation between low and high as each wave knocks more gas stations out of business and refinery capacity offline. But I have to say, even low prices on gas won't make me go back -- I prefer my EVs in all regards to the ICE equivalents, with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips, which is not my use case.
I hope #2 won't be the future. It's not as easy to just jack up electric prices because EVs are charging, because they are regulated, and electricity is used for way more than cars (if my napkin math is right, on average people will use around 30% more electricity if they go full electric).
I expect that as a practical matter #3 is here now, it just hasn't filtered down to retail car sales in the US yet.
Although Ford's CEO now gets it, Ford's product line doesn't reflect it yet.
Farley has been bringing a few sample BYD cars to the US, for Ford people to drive around and to take apart. Farley dragged his executive team to China to see a BYD plant. They came back scared. But what Ford actually sells is 1) an F-150 converted to electric, 2) a Ford Mustang converted to electric, and 3) a Ford Transit converted to electric. They're all more expensive, and heavier, than their gasoline-powered versions.
BYD shows that electric cars are cheaper if designed properly from the ground up.
The problem is that the US no longer makes many cars. Mostly giant trucks and SUVs.
Hauling all that mass around requires a huge battery, resulting in 3-ton vehicles.
Ford is a bad example because they’ve pretty much abandoned all their non truck and transit van segments for years. Even if EVs weren’t a thing, they do not compete in any of the segments and haven’t for almost a decade. First it was Japanese and German companies eating their lunch, now it’s the Chinese.
Also, F150 lightening is such a failure. There was a recent video of it trying to haul very minimal load and it pretty much drained the battery in less than 100 miles.
"Americans only want trucks and SUVs." (I hear people say.)
Cool. Then allow BYD non-trucks, non-SUVs into the U.S. then.
The Japanese back in the 70's showed U.S. automakers that price and mileage (in that decade anyway) were important to Americans. I suspect price is still important.
I agree with your comment, but I'll be a little pedantic for a minute:
As a Charger Daytona owner, I'd love to call the Mach-E a mustang, but it's really just borrowing the brand. Ford has said unequivocally that they'll never make an all-electric muscle car, which is a real shame. The Mach-E is a great car if you're turned off by a Model Y, but you wouldn't choose it over a mustang GT or a charger Daytona or a Camaro.
What do you mean, the ID series for the main VW brand have 7 upcoming models over the next two years (4 for the Chinese market, 3 for everywhere).
> all established brands we know are left behind
I wouldn't go that far. The Renault 5 is one of the best selling EVs in Europe, and all the reviews are extremely positive (it's a fun and good looking car overall, and accessible). They have the 4 rolling out, and the small Twingo coming next year. They've also managed to narrow down the time from concept car to production at scale to less than 2 years (which according to the article on the topic I read is very fast).
>I never understood Volkswagen's pivot from 'wait and See's to 'were inversing billions' to 'we were too late, abort'.
How is VW aborting in any way? They do not have a new ICE Platform, they are totally all in on EVs.
Whether that will work out is of course another question, but it is bizarre to bring up EV when there is also Stellantis, who do not even have a dedicated EV Platform for their cars.
It was announced a few days ago some models of Tesla are coming to Colombia at cheaper prices than BYD and the like and people here seems to be crazy about Tesla now. Time will tell how reliable they are on our poor roads.
And that's one thing about EVs here in general - they are coming with no spare tire but a flat tire repair kit, which it's fine for small issues but may not be enough for the problems said tough roads can give to your tires.
> It was announced a few days ago some models of Tesla are coming to Colombia at cheaper prices than BYD
How could that be?
At least Renault's low cost models (like the Dacia Spring, sold as Kwid in Latin America) are sold for cheap in various markets, and are competitive to BYD pricing in the EU and Latin America (enough that they're seeing serious growth there). Tesla doesn't have anything close, price wise, so how could they be competing on price with BYD?
Colombians are asking that question too. My guess is that Tesla is selling them at a loss to compete against BYD. They may be sending unsold inventory from the US/Mexico market as well.
I wonder how many clicks Reuters get on "Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America - without Tesla" vs "Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America"
Tesla was dead in the water when it became obvious that they couldn't make a sub-$30K car happen. They will still probably do well as a luxury brand, but China is going to fill in the demand for affordable EVs in the rest of the world outside USA/EU.
I have an electric cargo bike. During a kids party yesterday I ran 5 different errands with it while someone with a car managed to get stuck in traffic, not find a parking spot, and miss the whole thing.
The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.
I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.
I own three electric motorcycles and respectfully disagree. You can't make tube and canvas that let a passenger survive getting t-boned by a Yukon Denali or an F-250. One high-profile accident with a mother and her child getting peeled off the road with a coal shovel are all it'll take to kill such a form factor forever.
The problem isn't the form factor you're describing, it's that you can't put those on the road with 1000+ horsepower machines that are 50 times heavier. And on top of that, a lot of people just don't want to give up their heated massage seats and connected infotainment and removable third row or whatever crap they pack in minivans these days.
But surely the problem with the final paragraph is the transition? Assuming the old style of vehicle remains on the road, then my lightweight one is at risk of being crushed. Only a niche minority would choose that (as a cargo bike owner, I'm also one, but I recognise most are not, with good reason.)
Unless we built a whole separate infrastructure.... We already see a lot of electric scooters using cycle lanes.
> The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.
Nope, the Smart existed for quite a while. Safety standards made cars slightly bigger (e.g. the new Renault Twingo is bigger than the original), but modern American "cars" are massive because that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need. American vehicle manufacturers are pretty terrible at everything, and efficiency standards nudge them that way anyways, so making massive cars with high margins is a good deal for them.
In Europe there are SUVs, but the average car is a VW Golf or a Renault Clio sized. They are pretty decently sized, good visibility, can fit a family of 4, etc. Yeah, you can't haul a 50 ton campervan offroading up to Kilimanjaro, sure, but that's not what 99% of car trips are for.
> I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.
Tesla got far enough for Musk to have the power he wanted and then gave up innovating and expanding. China will win the race, they have a third of global manufacturing capacity and already sell as many NEVs (battery electric and plug in hybrids) domestically as are sold in the US every year, while continuing to scale.
In Europe didn’t basically all brands take a hit? It was framed as Tesla falling behind but it’s more that Chinese EVs are so cheap, nothing can compete. Even within China the competition is insane, with over 100 car companies fighting to survive and giving out big discounts.
This is a result of over regulation in the auto industry. I always shake my head at the group of people that wants cheaper prices on goods and services, but propose regulating large companies to death.
China is winning because they don't have to work around pesky labor or IP laws. Then we have people pointing to how much better they are at business and also want all these protections.
Naw. US labor cost per car is about $880 to $1250, from various sources.[1] China EV labor cost is around $550. That difference is less than what heated seats add in price.
When I grew up in Germany it always made me proud that 100% of taxis were Mercedes Benz. If a car can withstand the rough demands of taxi service, it has to be good. And even in South America back then German cares were ubiquitous, especially Volkswagen.
When I was in Brazil this spring[*] I rode a lot of Uber and they were 100% BYD - 100%, no exception. It's not that my head hadn't known that German auto was dead but seeing it playing out like this hit hard.
[*] northern hemisphere
BYD recently went live with a highly automated, large scale manufacturing facility in Brazil. The BYD Dolphin Mini sells for ~$22,500, and the manufacturer already has 200 showrooms open across the country.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/11/22/cop-brazil...
https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-...
To be fair taxis have unique requirements. Taxis in the UK were like 80% Prius for a long time because they drive very long distances and hybrids are very cost effective for city driving where you're doing a lot of low speed driving and don't have convenient recharging opportunities. But most people aren't in that situation.
Still, I think BYD are kind of killing it.
Not just Tesla, all established brands we know are left behind. I never understood Volkswagen's pivot from 'wait and See's to 'were inversing billions' to 'we were too late, abort'. Largest brands n terms of units, completely left behind in an emerging segment that's already dominating it's largest market (China). So many executives in the industry just didn't see the writing on the wall. I don't what GM was thinking, trying a truck as their first platform for EVs, but it's another indicator. This industry has the worst executives. Just don't see the writing on the wall.
This is what makes the innovator's dilemma repeat itself so many times in so many industries. It's not that the incumbent companies don't see the new technology; it's that they're so entrenched in what they know how to do that pivoting to the new technology is basically a Hail Mary no matter how you do it. Do it too early and your shareholders are going to think you're crazy. Do it too late, and you're risking entering a new market as the chaser with a bad hand of company, employees, and board that don't have any idea of what they're doing.
The small part in me understands that, they are banking on three things 1) oil will be cheap because of EV boom and hence EV dominance will be slow and could take couple of decades 2) electric Energy cost will rise significantly because so much charging and energy infrastructure required. 3) Battery will reach at par with gasoline and matured standardised comodity, that will be the perfect time to enter.
I think #1 will probably play out to a certain extent. Perhaps as an oscillation between low and high as each wave knocks more gas stations out of business and refinery capacity offline. But I have to say, even low prices on gas won't make me go back -- I prefer my EVs in all regards to the ICE equivalents, with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips, which is not my use case.
I hope #2 won't be the future. It's not as easy to just jack up electric prices because EVs are charging, because they are regulated, and electricity is used for way more than cars (if my napkin math is right, on average people will use around 30% more electricity if they go full electric).
I expect that as a practical matter #3 is here now, it just hasn't filtered down to retail car sales in the US yet.
Although Ford's CEO now gets it, Ford's product line doesn't reflect it yet. Farley has been bringing a few sample BYD cars to the US, for Ford people to drive around and to take apart. Farley dragged his executive team to China to see a BYD plant. They came back scared. But what Ford actually sells is 1) an F-150 converted to electric, 2) a Ford Mustang converted to electric, and 3) a Ford Transit converted to electric. They're all more expensive, and heavier, than their gasoline-powered versions.
BYD shows that electric cars are cheaper if designed properly from the ground up. The problem is that the US no longer makes many cars. Mostly giant trucks and SUVs. Hauling all that mass around requires a huge battery, resulting in 3-ton vehicles.
[delayed]
Ford is a bad example because they’ve pretty much abandoned all their non truck and transit van segments for years. Even if EVs weren’t a thing, they do not compete in any of the segments and haven’t for almost a decade. First it was Japanese and German companies eating their lunch, now it’s the Chinese.
Also, F150 lightening is such a failure. There was a recent video of it trying to haul very minimal load and it pretty much drained the battery in less than 100 miles.
"Americans only want trucks and SUVs." (I hear people say.)
Cool. Then allow BYD non-trucks, non-SUVs into the U.S. then.
The Japanese back in the 70's showed U.S. automakers that price and mileage (in that decade anyway) were important to Americans. I suspect price is still important.
> a Ford Mustang converted to electric
I agree with your comment, but I'll be a little pedantic for a minute:
As a Charger Daytona owner, I'd love to call the Mach-E a mustang, but it's really just borrowing the brand. Ford has said unequivocally that they'll never make an all-electric muscle car, which is a real shame. The Mach-E is a great car if you're turned off by a Model Y, but you wouldn't choose it over a mustang GT or a charger Daytona or a Camaro.
> a Ford Mustang converted to electric
The Mustang Mach-e isn't like any other Mustang. It just has the Mustang branding.
the mustang mach e is a purpose built EV. not a mustang with a battery back stuck in.
> 'we were too late, abort'
What do you mean, the ID series for the main VW brand have 7 upcoming models over the next two years (4 for the Chinese market, 3 for everywhere).
> all established brands we know are left behind
I wouldn't go that far. The Renault 5 is one of the best selling EVs in Europe, and all the reviews are extremely positive (it's a fun and good looking car overall, and accessible). They have the 4 rolling out, and the small Twingo coming next year. They've also managed to narrow down the time from concept car to production at scale to less than 2 years (which according to the article on the topic I read is very fast).
>I never understood Volkswagen's pivot from 'wait and See's to 'were inversing billions' to 'we were too late, abort'.
How is VW aborting in any way? They do not have a new ICE Platform, they are totally all in on EVs. Whether that will work out is of course another question, but it is bizarre to bring up EV when there is also Stellantis, who do not even have a dedicated EV Platform for their cars.
It was announced a few days ago some models of Tesla are coming to Colombia at cheaper prices than BYD and the like and people here seems to be crazy about Tesla now. Time will tell how reliable they are on our poor roads.
And that's one thing about EVs here in general - they are coming with no spare tire but a flat tire repair kit, which it's fine for small issues but may not be enough for the problems said tough roads can give to your tires.
> And that's one thing about EVs here in general - they are coming with no spare tire but a flat tire repair kit
That seems to be the standard for all new cars, both ICE and EV; sometimes a spare is available as a paid option.
Which seems insane. But it is what it is.
> It was announced a few days ago some models of Tesla are coming to Colombia at cheaper prices than BYD
How could that be?
At least Renault's low cost models (like the Dacia Spring, sold as Kwid in Latin America) are sold for cheap in various markets, and are competitive to BYD pricing in the EU and Latin America (enough that they're seeing serious growth there). Tesla doesn't have anything close, price wise, so how could they be competing on price with BYD?
Colombians are asking that question too. My guess is that Tesla is selling them at a loss to compete against BYD. They may be sending unsold inventory from the US/Mexico market as well.
Does that mean there's an arbitrage to be made by re-importing them?
Wouldn't import tax make that nonviable?
I wonder how many clicks Reuters get on "Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America - without Tesla" vs "Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America"
And in Europe and in Asia. Last time I was in the US, Tesla looked like a scam.
Tesla was dead in the water when it became obvious that they couldn't make a sub-$30K car happen. They will still probably do well as a luxury brand, but China is going to fill in the demand for affordable EVs in the rest of the world outside USA/EU.
I don't think we've seen the end game yet.
I have an electric cargo bike. During a kids party yesterday I ran 5 different errands with it while someone with a car managed to get stuck in traffic, not find a parking spot, and miss the whole thing.
The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.
I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.
I own three electric motorcycles and respectfully disagree. You can't make tube and canvas that let a passenger survive getting t-boned by a Yukon Denali or an F-250. One high-profile accident with a mother and her child getting peeled off the road with a coal shovel are all it'll take to kill such a form factor forever.
The problem isn't the form factor you're describing, it's that you can't put those on the road with 1000+ horsepower machines that are 50 times heavier. And on top of that, a lot of people just don't want to give up their heated massage seats and connected infotainment and removable third row or whatever crap they pack in minivans these days.
Your first three paragraphs are sound.
But surely the problem with the final paragraph is the transition? Assuming the old style of vehicle remains on the road, then my lightweight one is at risk of being crushed. Only a niche minority would choose that (as a cargo bike owner, I'm also one, but I recognise most are not, with good reason.)
Unless we built a whole separate infrastructure.... We already see a lot of electric scooters using cycle lanes.
The Smart for Two existed with an internal combustion engine.
> The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.
Nope, the Smart existed for quite a while. Safety standards made cars slightly bigger (e.g. the new Renault Twingo is bigger than the original), but modern American "cars" are massive because that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need. American vehicle manufacturers are pretty terrible at everything, and efficiency standards nudge them that way anyways, so making massive cars with high margins is a good deal for them.
In Europe there are SUVs, but the average car is a VW Golf or a Renault Clio sized. They are pretty decently sized, good visibility, can fit a family of 4, etc. Yeah, you can't haul a 50 ton campervan offroading up to Kilimanjaro, sure, but that's not what 99% of car trips are for.
> I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.
Renault Twizy ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Twizy ) exists, but doesn't sell all that well (compared to "normal" cars).
The Citroen Ami ( https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_Ami_(2020) ) is pretty popular in certain places (saw a ton of them in Amsterdam and semi-rural areas in France).
Tesla got far enough for Musk to have the power he wanted and then gave up innovating and expanding. China will win the race, they have a third of global manufacturing capacity and already sell as many NEVs (battery electric and plug in hybrids) domestically as are sold in the US every year, while continuing to scale.
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3334300...
https://insidechinaauto.com/2025/11/01/live-blog-china-octob...
https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-...
https://rhomotion.com/news/byd-announces-further-global-expa...
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-tesla-and-byd-...
In Europe didn’t basically all brands take a hit? It was framed as Tesla falling behind but it’s more that Chinese EVs are so cheap, nothing can compete. Even within China the competition is insane, with over 100 car companies fighting to survive and giving out big discounts.
Trivially substitutable goods, at a much lower price, with a now-reduced ethical difference. Not hard to see why.
Ethical difference? This is South America we're talking about. The ethical difference has been working against the US this whole time.
As opposed to buying Elon's Nazi-mobiles?
This is a result of over regulation in the auto industry. I always shake my head at the group of people that wants cheaper prices on goods and services, but propose regulating large companies to death.
China is winning because they don't have to work around pesky labor or IP laws. Then we have people pointing to how much better they are at business and also want all these protections.
You have no idea how regulated car business in China is... For example china is regulating the "innovative" Tesla style door handles..
https://carnewschina.com/2025/09/24/new-safety-requirements-...
Naw. US labor cost per car is about $880 to $1250, from various sources.[1] China EV labor cost is around $550. That difference is less than what heated seats add in price.
[1] https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2025/apr/...