Welcome to the Era of Experience [pdf]

(storage.googleapis.com)

84 points | by Siah 12 hours ago ago

30 comments

  • kubb 6 hours ago

    Wowzers, it’s happening imminently. Great to know that we can expect agents that learn from experience very very soon!

    When they’re here I’ll make an upvote farming bot that learns from experience how not to get caught and unleash it on HM.

    After that I’ll make an agent that runs a SaaS company that learns from experience how to make money and I’ll finally be able to chill out and play video games.

    That last thing I’ll actually do myself, I won’t use an agent, although the experience revolution stared with games. Ironic!

    But I’ll make an agent that learns from experience what kind of games I like and how to make them. This way I’ll have an endless supply.

    • tempodox 18 minutes ago

      > very very soon!

      If they're not careful, they'll be sued for copyright violation of the Real Soon Now™ brand.

  • artninja1988 2 hours ago

    Related: https://www.deepmind.com/publications/reward-is-enough. Not sure if I buy the reward is enough hypothesis though. Imo an AI with a fixed reward function doesn't seem like agi to me

  • jgbmlg 9 hours ago

    It's ironic that machine intelligence is advancing during an era when human intelligence is declining.

    • chneu 6 hours ago

      It's not. Everytime there's a new form of media or communication there's an uptick in "bad actors". Think yellow journalism or any of the moral panics around TV programming. Even back when the printing press was invented there was an uptick in troll behavior. One of the Green brothers posited that martin Luther was really just a pamphlet troll.

      With social media and the Internet, stupid just got louder. I don't think people got stupid.

      • codeflo 4 hours ago

        Amplifying stupid can be very deadly, though. In some sense, the printing press caused the 30-year war, and radio brought us World War II. Eventually, society will adapt. I just wish we could find a way to adapt faster than the bad actors do.

        • daseiner1 18 minutes ago

          i think it’s consensus that yellow journalism directly led to the spanish-american war via hearst

        • disqard 4 hours ago

          (continuing in that vein, and taking the liberty of making a giant oversimplification):

          ...and TV brought us Ronald Reagan, and the Internet gave us Trump as POTUS.

      • croes 5 hours ago

        Not just louder, it got in power

      • sdsd 5 hours ago

        Yes and no. In swaths of the world, we're actually observing a reverse Flynn effect and IQ has been dropping, in some places for decades.

        Eg: https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a43469569/american-...

        • _Algernon_ 5 hours ago

          This started long before the internet.

        • jimbob45 4 hours ago

          IQ tests are administration-sensitive and have changed dramatically since the beginning of such a Flynn effect study. The population makeup of many countries has changed in recent years to include many immigrants for whom the study would make exceedingly little sense to include. IQ tests do not cover and do not claim to cover a comprehensive view of human intelligence, famously lacking verbal and social components entirely. It is possible past IQ tests were simply overtuned and we’re now seeing the natural correction.

      • baxtr 5 hours ago

        Yes. Exactly right.

        Also well documented. Anyone interested, read the book: Attention Merchants by Wu.

    • dullcrisp 8 hours ago

      Maybe machine intelligence only seems to be advancing from the perspective of human intelligence

      • teberl 7 hours ago

        I like that thought.

    • CuriouslyC 6 hours ago

      The human brain optimizes for efficiency, if that extra intelligence doesn't confer survival benefits it'll be lost. I can't imagine that intelligence doesn't confer survival and reproductive benefits though, it's more likely that the gradient of survival and reproduction between the most intelligent and least has shrunk. In a sense civilization is coddling the weak, and humanity is getting weaker for it.

    • unsnap_biceps 9 hours ago

      I feel like declining human intelligence is a result of advancing machine intelligence. Computers are a force multiplier and societal pressure towards building intelligence is reduced.

      • whatnow37373 7 hours ago

        So the AGI/ASI problem might solve itself: we slowly become incapable of iterating on the problem while existing AI is not nearly advanced enough to pick up the slack.

        It’s quite beautiful. Once a civilization tries to build machine intelligence it slowly degrades its own capacity during the process thus eventually losing all hope of ever achieving their goal - assuming they still understand their goal at that point. Maybe it’s an algorithm in the Universe to keep us from being naughty.

    • huijzer 6 hours ago

      Maybe on average, but I think it’s probably correlated to inequality. The kid of two Oxford professors will probably be smarter than a kid that grew up in poverty. The school system is aimed at mitigating these differences, but if on average everyone gets less intelligent maybe the school system is working poorly.

      • lazide 5 hours ago

        Eh, or there is a massive effort to push as many people as possible down Maslow’s hierarchy of needs - which also shows up as being less intelligent.

        Happening right out in the open, and quite blatantly.

    • baxtr 7 hours ago

      Is there scientific evidence for this statement?

    • enaaem 2 hours ago

      Most people are not stupid. They react to their emotions.

    • anal_reactor 7 hours ago

      > when human intelligence is declining

      It's not. It's just that previously we were unaware how stupid people are, and now we're starting to understand this.

    • apwell23 4 hours ago

      > era when human intelligence is declining

      is it ? i am listening to most beautiful music that was ever created. it was created in 2024.

      • daseiner1 16 minutes ago

        would citing lebron james explain away the obesity epidemic?

  • quantumHazer 5 hours ago

    Is it me or this is yet another PR stunt masked as a serious article with LaTeX and all the fancy things? The graph doesn’t even make sense.

    I’m burning out from all this hypester type of thing, it’s really really tiring.

    • tempodox 9 minutes ago

      > I’m burning out

      The constant barrage of excrement makes critical thinking ever harder, which is by design (it has been proven that pumping out BS en masse is way easier than debunking it). Stop using your brain already and just buy what they tell you. Thinking is done by machines now. As is pumping out BS about how good machines are at thinking.

    • TheFragenTaken 42 minutes ago

      There should be a term for this. I semi-unironically trust content written in Computer Modern, even if I know it's insane.

  • numpad0 an hour ago

    ...yeah? It'll be great if machines could learn and adapt on-the-fly instead of just compressing the scrapes for 1 epoch over the course of few months into a 1TB download. Making machines learn and adapt on-line is what AI was always about.

  • ChrisArchitect 6 hours ago

    Richard Sutton: "Ultimately (this) will become a chapter in the book 'Designing an Intelligence' edited by George Konidaris and published by MIT Press."