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  • atomic128 8 hours ago

    As a matter of national security, Centrus immediately received a waiver once the U.S. ban on Russian uranium was passed.

    But the U.S. ban waivers held by Centrus and Constellation are now moot, as Russia has cut supply off on their end. TENEX is the Russian counterparty, as mentioned in the article.

    Russia's role in the uranium market is primarily as a supplier of conversion and enrichment services. In contrast, Russia is a net consumer of unenriched uranium ("yellowcake"), not a supplier.

    Loss of access to Russian enrichment facilities (centrifuges, etc.) forces enrichment overfeeding (and higher enrichment tails) at the remaining enrichment facilities. This can dramatically increase demand for unenriched uranium feedstock.

    Furthermore, Russian enrichment services have in the past required the buyer of said services to provide uranium hexafluoride (output of conversion) after the enriched uranium is delivered. Other enrichment providers (that now must be used instead of Russia) require the hexafluoride up-front. This puts pressure on conversion providers (already a bottleneck) and moves forward (in time) unenriched uranium (input of conversion) demand.

    Unenriched uranium is a VERY RISKY, VERY VOLATILE commodity with a tiny, thin spot market and an opaque long-term market.

    To invest in unenriched uranium in America, the best vehicle is the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, ticker SRUUF:

    https://sprott.com/investment-strategies/exchange-listed-pro...

    The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust holds 66 million pounds of unenriched uranium, about one third of the world's yearly burn-up. It issues shares when it trades at or above the previous day's net asset value (NAV) and uses the raised cash to buy uranium in the spot market. This fund is one of the most important participants in the uranium market.

    To see monthly spot and long-term contract uranium prices, see Cameco's website:

    https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price

    Intra-day spot uranium prices are reported here:

    https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/