Gwern's deep dive into Calhoun's scholarship suggests taking his "results", & popular/stylized glosses thereof, with some pretty big grains of salt - in line with the fall from academic prominence described in later parts of this article. Gwern's abstract:
> Did John Calhoun’s 1960s Mouse Utopia really show that animal (and human) populations will expand to arbitrary densities, creating socially-driven pathology and collapse? Reasons for doubt.
Would love to see this repeated. This is divisive, and so many arguments spawned.
It would be good to replicate it, just to put down some of the naysayers that quibble over a point or two saying it was staged or influenced.
And, to gain more knowledge about the causes and effects. We have more information today, and more data gathering. Would be good to do this study again in a modern lab.
Though not sure this type of experiment would be allowed today. Thus the problem. Some of the more well known studies that had a big impact on our way of thinking, aren't even allowed to be done today.
>It would be good to replicate it, just to put down some of the naysayers that quibble over a point or two saying it was staged or influenced.
No, that is not why it would be good to attempt to replicate. Shutting people down isn't the helpful part, but rather shedding light on the truth with evidence is the positive.
There's many strong reasons to consider the study was flawed (mentioned in the article and readily discoverable online), for the record, and the author of the paper's got all the classic signs of a crank, so skepticism would be healthy in this case, and shutting down skeptics would be very foolish.
"And, to gain more knowledge about the causes and effects. We have more information today, and more data gathering. Would be good to do this study again in a modern lab."
Yes, I did mention 'shedding light with evidence' as a positive thing.
And yes, read article and many others. I don't think the flaws were as 'strong' as you are implying, hence, yes, would be good to replicate to prevent the arguments for dismissing it because there were 'some' flaws.
Treat it like other studies. It was a first attempt, there were some interesting results, but also some 'flaws', hence, lets replicate and iron out the problems and see if we get some additional interesting results.
Women’s education and women’s rights. I don’t personally think we have an overpopulation problem, but the above are proven to reduce birth rates in an entirely non-coercive manner, as well as being a good thing in their own right.
Somewhat surprisingly, the answer seems to be "nothing".
In a primitive society, population self-regulates through early deaths, caused by diseases, physical injury, famines, etc... Then there is a transition to modern society (demographic transition) where though improvement in medicine, agriculture, and the general idea of not letting people die, population grows exponentially, but it doesn't last as people simply stop making children.
It has already happened in the first world, most countries would have a negative growth rate if it wasn't for immigration. Asia are just at the end of their transition and Africa is in the middle of it. Assuming the trend still holds, it will be the end for Africa and therefore, the entire world in a few decades. It is actually reason for concern, as it will result in an aging population, and unlike today in first world countries, there will be no immigration to compound the problem.
But changing the question and asking "How was it done?" instead, then I would say "birth control", the voluntary kind, the pill in particular. Safe abortion too. As someone mentioned, women in the workforce also contributed, but I would go further and say that for many women, having a job is not a right, it is an obligation! Many couples simply can't live decently on a single pay, especially with a child. Also, with laws regarding child labor, long studies, and changes in mentality, children are more of a burden than they once were, as most can't support themselves before their 20s. It used that at that age and even way before that, they supported their parents instead, especially boys (that's the idea behind dories).
Besides the inability to live on a single pay, these are generally good things, but the result is less children, which is a good thing for ending a potentially catastrophic exponential growth, but it may turn out to be a problem later. Not an unsolvable one though.
Yeah, at some point we’re going to have to solve the opposite problem. Luckily that’s also pretty easy to solve as well: mandatory maternity/paternity leave, free childcare, &c
> If you wanted to dial-down our incessant breeding without getting lynched, how would you do it?
Dialing it down is easy. Dialing it back up is impossible. The Chinese successfully dialed fertility down to 1.0 (officially, unofficially far lower), but try as they might they cannot make it move back up above that. China is doomed, even if that doom lies centuries off.
Other places didn't even have to try. Breeding has been dialed down far below the replacement rate, and many other nations are on the road to extinction. India has likely sunk below replacement fertility, or will in the next year or two. Only a few nations in central Africa have above-replacement fertility.
> There is a taboo against constraining reproduction. Legally, medically or whatever.
I've never personally seen evidence of such a taboo in the western hemisphere. Even in the United States. Instead, a few years ago, we had media talking head saying how the law should do something about the Octomom, that it "wasn't right". We live in the "shout your abortion" era. We're seeing the rise of the r/childfree culture. Constraining reproduction isn't taboo, it's celebrated. We live in a dying civilization hellbent on committing collective suicide.
Gwern's deep dive into Calhoun's scholarship suggests taking his "results", & popular/stylized glosses thereof, with some pretty big grains of salt - in line with the fall from academic prominence described in later parts of this article. Gwern's abstract:
> Did John Calhoun’s 1960s Mouse Utopia really show that animal (and human) populations will expand to arbitrary densities, creating socially-driven pathology and collapse? Reasons for doubt.
https://gwern.net/mouse-utopia
https://archive.is/u1BQo
Would love to see this repeated. This is divisive, and so many arguments spawned.
It would be good to replicate it, just to put down some of the naysayers that quibble over a point or two saying it was staged or influenced.
And, to gain more knowledge about the causes and effects. We have more information today, and more data gathering. Would be good to do this study again in a modern lab.
Though not sure this type of experiment would be allowed today. Thus the problem. Some of the more well known studies that had a big impact on our way of thinking, aren't even allowed to be done today.
>It would be good to replicate it, just to put down some of the naysayers that quibble over a point or two saying it was staged or influenced.
No, that is not why it would be good to attempt to replicate. Shutting people down isn't the helpful part, but rather shedding light on the truth with evidence is the positive.
There's many strong reasons to consider the study was flawed (mentioned in the article and readily discoverable online), for the record, and the author of the paper's got all the classic signs of a crank, so skepticism would be healthy in this case, and shutting down skeptics would be very foolish.
"And, to gain more knowledge about the causes and effects. We have more information today, and more data gathering. Would be good to do this study again in a modern lab."
Yes, I did mention 'shedding light with evidence' as a positive thing.
And yes, read article and many others. I don't think the flaws were as 'strong' as you are implying, hence, yes, would be good to replicate to prevent the arguments for dismissing it because there were 'some' flaws.
Treat it like other studies. It was a first attempt, there were some interesting results, but also some 'flaws', hence, lets replicate and iron out the problems and see if we get some additional interesting results.
A rat is an intelligent creature but also lives in filth.
[flagged]
There is a taboo against constraining reproduction. Legally, medically or whatever.
Which is unreasonable of course, given that reproduction is arguably more destructive than bombs.
If you wanted to dial-down our incessant breeding without getting lynched, how would you do it?
Women’s education and women’s rights. I don’t personally think we have an overpopulation problem, but the above are proven to reduce birth rates in an entirely non-coercive manner, as well as being a good thing in their own right.
And possibly most importantly: women's wage employment.[1]
[1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8295801/
I was thinking something a little more sure-fire and scifi, but yes, that's a kind way to do it.
Somewhat surprisingly, the answer seems to be "nothing".
In a primitive society, population self-regulates through early deaths, caused by diseases, physical injury, famines, etc... Then there is a transition to modern society (demographic transition) where though improvement in medicine, agriculture, and the general idea of not letting people die, population grows exponentially, but it doesn't last as people simply stop making children.
It has already happened in the first world, most countries would have a negative growth rate if it wasn't for immigration. Asia are just at the end of their transition and Africa is in the middle of it. Assuming the trend still holds, it will be the end for Africa and therefore, the entire world in a few decades. It is actually reason for concern, as it will result in an aging population, and unlike today in first world countries, there will be no immigration to compound the problem.
But changing the question and asking "How was it done?" instead, then I would say "birth control", the voluntary kind, the pill in particular. Safe abortion too. As someone mentioned, women in the workforce also contributed, but I would go further and say that for many women, having a job is not a right, it is an obligation! Many couples simply can't live decently on a single pay, especially with a child. Also, with laws regarding child labor, long studies, and changes in mentality, children are more of a burden than they once were, as most can't support themselves before their 20s. It used that at that age and even way before that, they supported their parents instead, especially boys (that's the idea behind dories).
Besides the inability to live on a single pay, these are generally good things, but the result is less children, which is a good thing for ending a potentially catastrophic exponential growth, but it may turn out to be a problem later. Not an unsolvable one though.
Yeah, at some point we’re going to have to solve the opposite problem. Luckily that’s also pretty easy to solve as well: mandatory maternity/paternity leave, free childcare, &c
I think you'll find that many people find it both reasonable and desirable to preserve reproductive rights, despite your casual "of course."
Our what?
[dead]
> If you wanted to dial-down our incessant breeding without getting lynched, how would you do it?
Dialing it down is easy. Dialing it back up is impossible. The Chinese successfully dialed fertility down to 1.0 (officially, unofficially far lower), but try as they might they cannot make it move back up above that. China is doomed, even if that doom lies centuries off.
Other places didn't even have to try. Breeding has been dialed down far below the replacement rate, and many other nations are on the road to extinction. India has likely sunk below replacement fertility, or will in the next year or two. Only a few nations in central Africa have above-replacement fertility.
> There is a taboo against constraining reproduction. Legally, medically or whatever.
I've never personally seen evidence of such a taboo in the western hemisphere. Even in the United States. Instead, a few years ago, we had media talking head saying how the law should do something about the Octomom, that it "wasn't right". We live in the "shout your abortion" era. We're seeing the rise of the r/childfree culture. Constraining reproduction isn't taboo, it's celebrated. We live in a dying civilization hellbent on committing collective suicide.