44 comments

  • UniverseHacker 9 hours ago

    I think this is a general cultural phenomenon not specific to the sciences- people are told they need to be aggressively confident to be taken seriously. Even as a kid parents and teachers will suggest to kids to edit words expressing uncertainty out of their writing. They are coached to talk like that when public speaking, at job interviews, and even dating.

    As a scientist- I also think papers and grant applications are more likely to be accepted if they use an irrationally overconfident tone, at least in the abstract and introduction.

    • bigs 9 hours ago

      Agree. At least in my western country, it has become almost expected that everyone is fully confident all the time. I’m someone who likes to deliberate on thoughts, take my time, listen to opinions and assess them, then provide my opinion (which may also change over time with more information or changing circumstances). I am humble, a listener, and don’t believe I know everything. I feel a little out of place in current society.

      • randomNumber7 7 hours ago

        These are just characteristics of high intelligence. You would have always felt out of place with society.

        • UniverseHacker 7 hours ago

          I think there’s personality traits at play here also- simply being introverted means you are more focused on if your ideas make sense to you, than how they will be received or what they will make other people think about you.

          I think there are intelligent extroverts that just aren’t really that worried about if their opinions are correct or not except in rare cases where the consequences of being wrong would be severe.

      • Tanoc 7 hours ago

        When I was younger I had a bad habit of taking what information I did know and then piecing it together to try and fill in what I didn't know, then stating that confidently. Many times I was wrong. In fact, most times I was wrong and not even close. But I was expected to be that way in order for people to listen to me. I was doing this almost until I was twenty because of that expectation.

        The one good thing that came out of this maladapted behaviour is that I learned to take my hunch, piece together the information, and then use that to go looking for what I didn't know. In a way it got me addicted to constantly learning, something I never managed in school.

        • stonethrowaway 2 hours ago

          That is very much a normal human condition honestly. In my experience what I’m seeing from time to time is younger folks have way more confidence in things they’re wrong about than I did when I was their age. I had some confidence no doubt but ample room for error where I would run a “trust but verify” pattern on my own bullshit regularly. I learned from who knows what that it’s bon ton to say “I don’t know” so I got into the habit of withholding my theories in favour of yielding to the other parties. Of course it helps in tech and business to be discerning. But I’m seeing less of this and way more of baseless, unfounded conclusions that have not stemmed from deductive reasoning, conflicting research and so on but rather just-so statements and single-dimension emotional reflexes. It’s clear the presenter wholly lacks experience, but we play along because it’s amusing.

          The hard part is articulating to someone to slow down because we run the risk of them being offended. But that’s a different thread altogether.

      • chucksmash 9 hours ago

        Your account is dead but none of the posts in your history look bad. You can email hn@ycombinator.com and if there has been a mistake they'll sort it out.

    • hansvm an hour ago

      An explanation some teachers beat into me over the years is that everyone already knows you're only stating a thing because it's your opinion. It's discourteous to waste time repeating something so basic, so such hedging language should only be used when it actually adds something to the conversation -- warning the reader of something with an unexpected level of certainty.

      On some level, that makes even more sense in scientific writing. You already have method sections, experimental results, .... If you haven't been overconfident in those sections then the reader really ought to have all the tools they need to appropriately examine the paper.

      • MichaelZuo an hour ago

        Huh? People sometimes state things that are the genuine facts, as far as anyone has been able to prove, but that are not entirely possible to be 100% verified.

        This isn’t some obscure niche case either, it happens every day on HN.

        • hansvm 35 minutes ago

          If we're interpreting what I wrote charitably, it's implicit that "obvious" facts will extremely rarely have hedging language, so the anti-hedging conversation can focus elsewhere.

          I _knew_ somebody was going to nitpick that phrase and rejected the urge to write a few extra paragraphs in the format of a HN comment expressing the idea more completely...

          If we want to look at it a bit less charitably though, even things that are true "as far as anyone has been able to prove" are usually not perceived to be true for a significant fraction of the human race, so in interactions with randos (like this current thread) it's still reasonable to assume that we're talking about opinions rather than facts. Even when talking about "facts" (as you partially defined them), the core idea still holds -- your _opinion_ (maybe a very well validated opinion) is that those facts are true, and hedging language is discourteous to the reader.

    • energy123 4 hours ago

      Part of it is the English language doesn't have tools to express uncertainty without adding verbosity. For example, take what I said here, my sentence length increased by 25% by saying "part of it is" to communicate uncertainty. This gets tiring quickly for both the writer and reader. It becomes boilerplate.

    • DiscourseFan 3 hours ago

      Yes and no.

      Often being trapped in indecision is a sign of fear and insecurity rather than calm consideration. But sometimes people go into things headstrong and lose because they didn't make any calculations beforehand. There's a balance, or maybe a dialectic, between thinking and non-thinking action.

    • jampekka 8 hours ago

      Also e.g. MS Word suggests getting rid of qualifiers.

      With papers and especially grant applications it's ridiculous that everybody knows they are overpromising but still they don't go through of they don't overpromise.

      • sandworm101 7 hours ago

        Before i send something i make sure each paragraph has at least one it of green underline. The day that Word and I agree on grammar is the day i switch back to pencil and paper!

        • mondobe 2 hours ago

          Including HN comments, I see...

    • kleiba 8 hours ago

      > Even as a kid parents and teachers will suggest to kids to edit words expressing uncertainty out of their writing. They are coached to talk like that when public speaking, at job interviews, and even dating.

      That's the first time I'm hearing this and it's certainly not something I've ever observed. In this broad generally, I cannot believe that this statement is true.

      • swatcoder 6 hours ago

        I'm not sure it's presented as removing expressions of uncertainty.

        But modern writing instruction tend to prioritize precise verbs and nouns (choose the most precise word) and takes a very critical eye towards adverbs, adjectives, or prepositional phrases that might simply contribute to cadence, affect, and voice. I find it really hostile to style and readability, but it's easy to evaluate in education because you can just call out the flavoring bits as errors and point to a more precise dictionary word for what's left. Plus, it projects objectivity simply in it being "the most right way" to write, leaving the dirty mess of subjectivity, character, and humanity out of the classroom.

        But the relevant end result of all that is that there's very little room for qualifiers or tentatitiveness, as those are usually expressed exactly in those subtle modifiers that people are trained to exclude.

        And then this does end up coinciding with a truth of rhetoric, which is that -- much of the time -- the receiver of speech or writing will implicitly accept whatever authority and surety you project. If you sound sure, you must be sure, and if you're so sure, you must have reason to be, so you're probably right.

        Put these together, and you get dull, dense technical writing with authoritative, objective tone and people are too overwhelmed and passive to bother parsing it enough challenge it.

      • thiagocmoraes 7 hours ago

        Are you american? As a non-american living in the US, the statement from parent post sounds about right to me. Culturally, people sound very confident, even when they have little to no confidence on the content.

        • hollerith 7 hours ago

          This American agrees. I intentionally make my public writings much more confident than my private writings. If I don't, people just ignore me.

          • whatshisface 3 hours ago

            I remember a teacher telling me to delete every occurrence of "I think," because it's redundant to tell people you think what you're writing.

            • uolmir 3 hours ago

              That's good advice in that context and speaks to the difference in standards of evidence between normal expository or persuasive writing in school and scientific writing. In a scientific paper if you assert something it's important to flag to the reader what kind of claim this is, eg something demonstrated by other research, something that directly follows from your evidence, or something that could possibly be true given prior knowledge and your evidence.

      • UniverseHacker 7 hours ago

        I’m guessing you are not in the Bay Area in the US like much of the people on HN?

        • RealityVoid 4 hours ago

          I suspect HN is much more diverse than you make it out to be. I see _lots_ of non-US people around.

        • kleiba 6 hours ago

          Not any more, in fact.

      • mmooss 8 hours ago

        I was going to write the same thing as the GP, fwiw.

        Look at how many public figures embrace the extreme overconfidence as a mark of tactical genius: SBF, Musk, lots of other SV figures, Trump, etc.

        Humbleness, humility used to be admired. Can you imagine someone saying that now?

        • dragonwriter 7 hours ago

          > Humbleness, humility used to be admired.

          They are generally praised in the abstract, but in concrete terms of actual people in terms of attracting a contemporary following (and not distant, historical, and academic respect), boldness has usually trumped humility. The idea that there was a time when people didn't flock to the overcompetent people presenting strong-leader images over people with genuine humility is just one of the many ways people create a mythical past to paint the manifestation of long-present aspects of human culture as novel degeneracy into which the world has recently fallen.

          • mmooss 7 hours ago

            > in concrete terms of actual people in terms of attracting a contemporary following (and not distant, historical, and academic respect), boldness has usually trumped humility

            I don't think that's true: Confucious, Jesus, George Washington, Lincoln, MLK ... Eisenhower, every president before Trump, the New England culture of looking down on ostentation and displays of wealth, .... I read a New Yorker article several years ago about a culture of Wall Street leaders in the 1980s who purposely wore cheap watches, had homes with low fences, etc.

            • dragonwriter 6 hours ago

              > I don't think that's true: Confucious, Jesus,

              Jesus had a relatively small band of followers that abandoned him at the first sign of unpopularity with authorities, pissed off more people than followed him, and was murdered by the public authorities at the demand of the local population. He got a bigger posthumous following after (actually or in a myth created by people seeking their own influence) rising from the dead.

              Says a lot more about the respect for miracles than respect for humility, however much one might read what is written about him as calling for humility from his followers. Meanwhile the list of historical figures whose rise to influence was fueled by the exact opposite of humility is...not short.

              > every president before Trump,

              Very many of the Presidents before Trump were...not known for humility in their time. Some have had that added to their popular myth afterwards, but, I mean, plenty not even that, and probably the most recent one that was (I'm...not young, and Carter is probably the only one in my lifetime you might make a case that it was something he was particularly known for.)

              • mmooss 6 hours ago

                I don't want to get into religious debate, but you might want to re-read the Gospels - you are missing the fundamental message of Jesus, which has turned out to be extremely popular - arguably the most popular text and message in the world.

                > Very many of the Presidents before Trump were...not known for humility in their time.

                Who? What did they do? Nobody like Trump or other people I named.

                • dragonwriter 6 hours ago

                  > I don’t want to get into religious debate, but you might want to re-read the Gospels - you are missing the fundamental message of Jesus, which has turned out to be extremely popular - arguably the most popular text and message in the world.

                  You might want to reread the upthread context: I was discussing the role of humility “in concrete terms of actual people in terms of attracting a contemporary following” and distinguishing that form backward-looking regard (since we are comparing to how Trump is currently viewed, where we can see only the contemporary regard and not what future generations will think of him in retrospect.)

                  What has happened after the time of Jesus ministry with respect to the impact of works written about him is irrelevant.

                  • mmooss 3 hours ago

                    Jesus's message of humility was clear. The rest is your speculation, 2000 years later, about what worked.

              • gotoeleven 6 hours ago

                Ahh yes those legendarily humble pre-trump presidents

                FALSANI: “What is sin?” OBAMA: “Being out of alignment with my values.”

                https://www.baptistpress.com/resource-library/news/obama-sin...

                • mmooss 6 hours ago

                  What does that say about humility?

        • oceanplexian 2 hours ago

          Musk is not a figurehead of confidence, and really is nothing like SBF. In fact, he’s regularly very direct about conveying the level of uncertainty when discussing the possibility of RUDs with Starship or being optimistic about deadlines for Tesla when he’s speaking in long form and not taken out of context with a sound bite.

          • mmooss an hour ago

            You're rewriting history. We don't need to list all the extreme claims and exaggerations. And his 'short form' communication is not someone else taking him out of context, but how he regularly communicates - on X.

    • bigs 9 hours ago

      Agree. At least in my western country, it has become almost expected that everyone is fully confident all the time.

      I’m someone who likes to deliberate on thoughts, take my time, listen to opinions and assess them, then provide my opinion (which may also change over time with more information or changing circumstances). I am humble, a listener, and don’t believe I know everything. I feel a little out of place in current society.

    • jackcviers3 6 hours ago

      As one teacher and several profs told me, "You don't need to say, 'I think', because the fact that you are saying or writing it means that you think it". In other words, if you are uncertain, don't express the idea, because no amount of verbal hedging will protect you if you express something that is incorrect.

      However, the best way to get the correct idea if you are wrong and unsure is to confidently propose your idea as if it is correct - Cunningham's law applied to everything.

      • gryn 4 hours ago

        writing 'I think X', 'there a chance that X' instead of 'X is', 'I know that X'

        > if you are uncertain, don't express the idea, because no amount of verbal hedging will protect you if you express something that is incorrect.

        The problem with this is with the target audience of your writing, if you're assuming an adversarial audience vs a cooperative one. the bigger and less self-filtered the audience is the more likely it is to become of the first kind.

        > the best way to get the correct idea if you are wrong and unsure is to confidently propose your idea as if it is correct - Cunningham's law applied to everything.

        Personally when I see someone being confidently incorrect consistently I just filter them out and their opinions instead of correcting them because a lot of time it's a lost cause.

        for example Reddit and twitter, the sheer amount of people that are overly confidently incorrect, it made conversations not worth having there so I just stopped many years ago.

      • makeitdouble 3 hours ago

        > if you are uncertain, don't express the idea

        A better interpretation is to express the uncertainty at its core, and not wrapped into your subjectiveness.

        For instance if you read it in a publication and kinda agree but don't fully trust it, instead of "I think X" you could go with "Publication Y exposes the possibility of X"

        The real point of the advice is to get rid of fluff, not remove nuance or valuable information.

      • rcxdude 5 hours ago

        And yet one of the best ways to lose respect in a technical context, especially as a junior, is to be confidently incorrect. Showing humility helps a hell of a lot for all concerned if you've in fact misunderstood something.

    • nickpsecurity 3 hours ago

      I think it’s a newer culture pushed by the media and universities to accept scientific claims without questioning them. They usually cite whatever they say without evidence. What a scientific consensus or even unnamed scientist say can be used to dismiss others’ points. It’s almost like they’re the clergy of today. Some are calling this “scientism.”

      We need to go back to treating any claims with healthy skepticism, reviewing them, and phrasing things carefully to show the degree of certainty uncertainty involved. We need to protect the integrity of both science and scientific reporting. That’s better for us in the long-term.

  • Animats 8 hours ago

    > the frequency of hedging words such as “might" and "probably" has fallen by about 40% over the past 2 decades...

    Sounds all too right. That certainly seems to be true in the low-end brands of Nature (Nature Food, Nature Water, Nature Joule...) which read like press releases with some random math thrown in.

    It's really bad in results associated with "green", "nanotechnology", or batteries.

  • 2cynykyl 2 hours ago

    I was confused by the article title...the word "some" didn't make sense. Then I finally got the joke. So apparently, I am so used to article titles being fully confident that I subconsciously felt this one was off.

  • juujian 7 hours ago

    Obligatory "havent read the journal article." But I can say that I remove words like that from my manuscripts to reduce the word count. Older articles I read seem to ramble more and have less information density? So that's another possible explanation?