Anyone working on longer timescales should have been planning for this. China was, the West wasn't and now the cheaper and better cars of the future are Chinese made.
Sorry but this is just not true for any honest meaning of the word "true".
Yes, you have TCO parity in some market segments for some use cases, particularly higher up the market (Tesla M3 vs BMW M3) and in the bottom of the market (subcompacts and compact crossovers) but there are giant gaping holes.
There is no TCO parity (or even an offering) for intentionally built to a price utility vehicles, the little euro city vans and Ford Maverick type stuff.
And this is before you start talking fullsize trucks and vans. The E-transit is a joke from a TCO perspective. It only makes sense if you're trying to run a fairly swanky low milage shuttle service and even then not really. I guess a few senior centers might like them.
The electric half ton trucks are compelling for certain use cases and feature sets but the purchase prices are just so high to start with that the TCO on any useful timeline is way above that of white trucks with vinyl carpets and V6 engines.
TCO parity really isn't there for anyone who gives a crap about TCO and buys accordingly because those people gravitate to the low TCO ICEs and purchase price is such a large contributor to TCO that a reduction in operating costs doesn't wash that out on a timeline that the overwhelming majority of new car buyers care about.
Source: Purchases a new car last quarter. Wanted an EV, wound up with an ICE Honda. :(
There's plenty of fleet sources claiming vans are already winning on TCO in europe.
Which makes sense. Like city busses, EV vans in last mile city traffic are the low hanging fruit for EV adoption.
Planned routes. Being part of mixed fleets (similar to having a two car family and using the EV for most journeys to maximise fuel savings). Stop and go traffic for regen.
>There's plenty of fleet sources claiming vans are already winning on TCO in europe.
Can you cite one? All I'm finding is SEO/AI/low effort listicle type garbage.
>Which makes sense. Like city busses, EV vans in last mile city traffic are the low hanging fruit for EV adoption.
If it makes so much sense for so many users then why aren't we seeing more than the slightest trickle of the?
There's a reason I called the E-transit a joke. That's because it is. Low milage "go somewhere and stay there all day" type van buyers won't pay the initial price. The people moving users who generally buy the higher priced stuff new rack up too many miles in a day and they're gonna suffer some of the worst real world range because they have to heat and cool the cargo.
The only bigger work vehicle EVs are really starting to make sense for is city busses and local delivery (e.g. Amazon and similiar) that need low range, low flexibility (can't turn a van around and send it back out with a new driver at end of shift) and high up front cost. That's a tiny slice of users.
I really want this to work (especially for motor coaches for obvious NVH reasons) because EVs when they work they do an amazing job being pure appliance vehicles. But it just doesn't pencil out without using mental tricks or just writing off downsides that need to be planned around because "other people's money".
If you include capital cost in TCO as you should, a high price up front looks as bad as it should. And since lots of cars are leased or financed, this is also more realistic than the simple&stupid list-price+runningcost calculations.
I think without half ton trucks that get used as personal commuter vehicles in the mix the comparison gets even less favorable to EVs. Vans face all the same problems but worse because people don't buy $50k half ton vans for mostly commuting with a little bit of heavier work thrown in so the tradeoffs are going to make sense for fewer people. There aren't any midsize electric pickups from big OEMs yet (i.e. I bet someone in China makes one that isn't sold internationally).
I guess insane European fuel costs do potentially make the comparison better in the SUV market segments though...
I'm not saying Europeans don't commute by car, but distances are so much smaller that even a plugin can go electric only. Also vans aren't that many and go even less as commuter vehicle, and pickups (or trucks for that matter) aren't a thing at all - I'm not sure I've seen even one during the entire last month.
Kepp looking at the EV market and the cars are pretty lame. The experience of an EV is bar none the best but man the available models seem to suck. I'm just waiting for my favorite manufacturer(Mazda) to make an EV version of my car because I am tired of renting different EVs only to find that they miss some criteria that my current 18 year old rust bucket has.
The question remains whether this price drop - if it actually is going to occur at all - will be forwarded to the end-customer. Right now, the high prices of EV compared to ICE is one of the main roadblocks for broader adoption of electric cars.
The car market is incredibly competitive, especially in the budget range. There are too many automakers competing for any to just decide not to pass savings without having an uncompetitive product.
Continuous inflation without raised salaries means exactly the opposite of this.
I ran a python script the other day using the French state data on pricing. Minimal wage was about 1000 euros after tax in 2003, and is 1300 in 2023. But 1000 in 2003 is about 2300 euros in 2023 according to the same official data.
I don't know a single vital thing in my life that is not more expensive now than when I was a kid: food, water, energy, shelter, clothes, health... They are all more expensive.
Now sure, internet access is less expensive and better, but you can't eat wifi.
Why would one expect those things to not be more expensive? Governments explicitly and intentionally manipulate currency so that prices (overall) are on an upward march.
Also, comparing changes in income deciles over time would be more useful than minimum wage changes, as legislatures are not necessarily reacting in real time.
> food, water, energy, shelter, clothes, health
Many of these are things where technological advances resulting in greater and greater economies of scale plateaued, or where technological advances mean that your expectation of the quality of goods or service greatly increased.
The former would be water/energy/shelter/food/clothes. The world has a lot more people competing for these resources, but there was no commensurate increase in supply.
The latter would be health, where the healthcare from your childhood is a greatly different product (at the advanced levels, not necessarily the routine checkup or flu visit).
Given that prices for health in the US are exorbitant because they are based on the free market and the prices in France much cheaper (even when you pay 100% of of pocket) because the market is state controled, I have a hard time to take your comment seriously.
But I'm sure you will find a reason while health is an exception.
Right now the entities in the EV battery game want to build out, it's unlikely therefore they'd constrict and choke an ever increasing demand.
That said, there absolutely is the potential for large key players to aquire more control and|or to maximise their profits rather than minimise and end price.
Today’s battery and minerals supply chains revolve around China
China produces three-quarters of all lithium-ion batteries and is home to 70% of production capacity for cathodes and 85% for anodes (both are key components of batteries). Over half of lithium, cobalt and graphite processing and refining capacity is located in China.
Europe is responsible for over one-quarter of global EV assembly, but it is home to very little of the supply chain apart from cobalt processing at 20%.
The United States has an even smaller role in the global EV battery supply chain, with only 10% of EV production and 7% of battery production capacity.
Korea and Japan have considerable shares of the supply chain downstream of raw material processing, particularly in the highly technical production of cathode and anode material. Korea is responsible for 15% of global cathode material production capacity, while Japan accounts for 14% of cathode and 11% of anode material production. Korean and Japanese companies are also involved in the production of other battery components such as separators.
Most key minerals are mined in resource-rich countries such as Australia, Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and handled by a few major companies.
I would say competitive markets more than capitalism are responsible for that and we've seen many many cartels and monopolies (even with legislation against them) so it's weird to imply that they aren't fairly very common. It also doesn't need to be a full cartel, there is a lot of tacit collusion between companies or other mechanisms where they don't really compete.
Until it is in my hands and I've paid that for it at that price, I remain hesitant. I think every early pricing prediction I've seen was to drive investment or interest rather than push costs down.
I doubt the value proposition of buying used EVs will ever reach parity with ICE unless the government forces some new battery warranty/replacement scheme onto EV manufacturers. I was talking to my credit union about this while applying for an auto loan and they said I'd have to be out of my mind to even consider a used EV. A Japanese ICE with 100k miles on it has a high chance of giving the second owner another 100k miles with no major expenses besides oil changes. With used EVs that battery pack is a ticking time bomb waiting to blow a hole in your wallet.
Replacements do happen, but a lot of them are under warranty. Batteries are lasting longer than people expected, mainly due to really good management systems. These days the industry expects them to usually last the life of the car, though that allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original.
Further tweaks to battery chemistry will probably improve things further. I might not buy an EV with 100K miles on it just yet, but I'd do 30K; a lot of the warranties go to 100K.
Agreed the replacement rates have been lower than anticipated.
The only problems have been the predictable ones - bad designs like the early Nissan Leafs which had no thermal management.
That said, the amount of datapoints here should increase by orders of magnitude over the next 2-3 years as the first million Model 3s roll out of their 8 year battery warranty period.
I'm sure that once there is regular demand for battery replacements, the cost won't be much different than an engine rebuild.
So even the pessimist case for EVs today is "well the TCO is lower for the first decade but then..." and I think we will be solving the "but then.." soon.
What do you mean? When I buy an ICE car I am not buying it with the expectation that the engine and transmission will die imminently. Why would you assume 70% capacity for an EV?
That is surprising, I've always thought the value proposition of used EV would be miles ahead of ICE vehicles, at least the more modern ones. A quick google also confirms that the average life expectancy in mileage of EV is already ahead of ICE cars. Generally, EV have the reputation of requiring much less maintenance.
> Generally, EV have the reputation of requiring much less maintenance.
I'm sure you could generate a maintenance figure for EV that was lower than ICE if you wanted to. But I doubt that figure would be significant, maybe 10-15% if you're lucky.
Why ? Well, let's face it, an EV is still a car. So you still have 99% of the same old things ... tyres, brakes, shock-absorbers, windscreen, windscreen wiper blades, washer fluid, AC gas etc. etc. etc.
And then, of course, if there are problems with your EV battery, or its time for an EV battery replacement, then that 10-15% saving goes out the window. :)
Aren't brakes one shared system where electric vehicles have an advantage? With the widespread use of regenerative braking, most of the energy of motion is bled off without friction on wear parts. EVs still need brake discs and calipers to maintain a full stop (particularly on an incline), for emergency braking, and as a failsafe, but the parts should experience much less routine wear.
Additionally, your list omits the entire exhaust system, which is full of components that can foul up or corrode. Combustion exhaust gasses can be pretty corrosive stuff, particularly when combined with water condensation on short trips/cold days.
You’re heavily oversimplifying things. If you look at some random Volkswagen or BMW service plan - it’s always about engine. Oil, belts, chains, spark plugs, air filters. Parts optimized for a profitable quick replacement at a dealership. Easily 600-900€ yearly with today’s prices.
There are also gazillion things to fail and to be repaired. Sensors, hoses, cables, alternator, fuel lines, clutch, exhaust system. All these parts were replaced in family’s petrol cars during last years.
I doubt, that today’s Teslas will have battery problems. They have enough knowledge for volume production. Expect 2% early battery capacity degradation though.
> an EV is still a car. So you still have the same old things ...
No, an ICE has a very complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts. Belts, transmissions, gears, fuel filter, oil seals and gaskets, batteries (ICE's need them too), spark plugs, fuel pump, fuel injector, alternator, radiator and water pump, catalytic converter, etc etc .
Brakes also wear slower on EVs since regnerative braking captures some energy.
Electric motors themselves are far more reliable and simpler than ICE motors.
Those "complex parts" (engine and gearboxes) usually only require yearly oil changes and replacement of minor parts as you mentioned (spark plugs, plug wires, belts, tensioners--maybe injectors every 100kmi) for the first quarter million miles. At 10kmi/yr that's 25yr.
The complexity as defined by parts count doesn't have much practical impact on TCO.
since you mention the radiator, the EV needs quite the cooling as well; although I do agree for the most part. The electric motors are a lot simpler than even a small engine lawnmower.
I've replaced a few ICE batteries in my time. You can replace them at home in 5 minutes and they are a gazillion times cheaper than an EV battery. :)
> ICE has a very complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts. Belts, transmissions, gears, fuel filter, oil seals and gaskets
This whole thing about ICE is FUD IMHO. Yes, complex, but on modern ICE vehicles is highly-reliable.
Also I would argue with EVs you are replacing ICE "complexity" with other complexity. For example, in EVs you now have individual motors on four wheels (i.e. potentially four points of failure), you have all the software in EVs etc. etc. etc.
I would also argue that the ICE "complexity" of what you speak is NOT where the bulk of ICE maintenance costs come from. Afterall, topping up the oil and replacing gaskets is kids work.
The bulk of ICE maintenance will ultimately be the same as EV maintenance, i.e. all the wear-and-tear parts I listed already, such as tyres.
It also depends a lot on what type of ICE we are talking about. A very high power output downsizing engine with two turbochargers, direct fuel injection, EGR, intercooler, electric oil pump(s) (for turbo cooling), variable valve timings and/or lift systems etc. -- what you'll typically find in a high trim ICE mid-class car -- has far, far more parts and experiences a lot higher stresses than e.g. the naturally aspirated port injection engine you might find in a city car.
That said, my BEV is currently in service due to the charger shorting out for some reason. Not sure which came first, but the battery cable harness also got damaged and had to be replaced.
A quick change once the parts arrived they said. The car is still under warranty so won't cost me a dime, but if the bill they presented me with is real and not some "medical bill" shenanigans, the charger alone would be 1/8th the price of the car as new, total repair cost 1/5th...
So yeah, still some expensive parts that can break. Was quite happy with very little maintenance costs so far, but if that price was real and charger breaks after warranty is out, the whole value proposition is quite different.
It's not 99% of the same things, you have cherry picked.
There's many studies comparing the cost, I've never see any that put the saving as low as 10 to 15%, 50% is a more common figure.
Most manufacturers grantee their batteries , mine has a 10 year warranty.Batteries developing problems and needing to be replaces is not really a thing.
> It's not 99% of the same things, you have cherry picked.
No, I have not cherry picked.
Because the remaining 1%, topping-up oil, replacing gaskets, belts etc. is simply not where the bulk of ICE maintenance costs come from. This sort of stuff can be done cheaply and easily by your local garage.
The bulk of the ICE and EV maintenance costs is the same, the stuff that gets exposed to the wear-and-tear of the elements, i.e. your tyres, your windscreen, your shock-absorbers etc. etc.
An EV does not make you immune to getting nails in your tyres, chips in your windscreen, cracks in your shock-absorbers etc. ....
> Most manufacturers grantee their batteries , mine has a 10 year warranty
As with most things of this nature, I would be interested to see the wordings of such warranties, particularly the exclusion clauses. :)
> There's many studies comparing the cost...
And if we exclude studies funded/conducted by the EV companies or others with vested interests ? :)
> Most manufacturers grantee their batteries , mine has a 10 year warranty
A ten year battery warranty means most used car buyers would be without a battery warranty. My current car was 12 years old when I got it, and in basically pristine condition. Good ICE cars are very durable in a way that the batteries in EVs simply aren't.
Ever have your phone or laptop not hold the charge it used to when you first bought it? The same thing happens to car batteries. This certainly doesn't help with people's range anxiety.
I'm on the sideline waiting for the battery tech to improve a bit more before buying my next (electric) car.
As an aside, I'm horrified by what new privacy invasive "features" these cars will include in all electric cars.
Data is a bit light on the ground given we haven't had masses of EVs for all that long. But I wouldn't necessarily have this expectation based off of phones and laptops.
EVs have really high-end battery management systems and cooling, which will have a huge impact on battery life.
Heck even my phone is lasting better these days with just better software battery management in Android. My current oneplus 9 is going on three and a half years old and hasn't notably degraded in battery life. Whereas I'm pretty sure I remember all my previous phones having noticeable battery degradation after a year or so.
>Ever have your phone or laptop not hold the charge it used to when you first bought it?
While true, the analogy is bad. The phones (and to some extent laptops) are notorious of the overcharge. The Li-Ion (cobalt) normally should be charged to 4.22V or so. Tool batteries usually do not go over 4.18V. Yet, the phones are happily pushing 4.35V - which provides longer life per charge initially, plus a proper planned obsolescence later.
At the very extreme end, Apple Watch batteries have a 3.87 V nominal and 4.45 V end of charge voltage. Most lipoly pouch cells would turn into a balloon trying to do that once.
Used EVs tend to be quite expensive for now, at least in EU. But it's certainly also affected by supply/demand, there are simply not that many used EVs for sale yet.
And at least in case of Teslas it's mostly the higher models in higher trims, since those are the ones the early customers bought.
I assumed there would be a market for new aftermarket batteries but it hasn't developed at all. Theoretically a battery pack isn't the most complicated thing and electrical compatibility is a lot easier to achieve than for a ICE.
1. Sourcing is difficult. Would you buy some random batteries from China? Do you trust the dealer that it won't fry your customer in few months after installation? Can you verify that what they are selling is what you have in your hand?
2. You need to know a lot about batteries and even more about battery management system and then know how to integrate batteries + BMS into a car. Sure you might be able to reuse existing BMS for a car you are targeting but it will quickly become a bottle neck in your manufacturing if you do so.
3. Pairing of parts. Related to point 3. You might be able to build a battery pack, are you able to also force the car to take the battery pack? Car might outright refuse to talk to it, because it is not paired and OEM won't let you pair it, because "safety", but more like safety of their profits.
4. Shipping of Lithium batteries in general is huge PITA. Try to ship battery of any size with Fedex/DHL/UPS. They either outright refuse to or you will pay a lot of extra.
I saw a teenager on YouTube replace the battery on an early LEAF with a newer, higher capacity pack from a later model and (separately) a Chinese firm offering replacement packs for the same car at capacities never offered by the OEM.
Notably the kid said the hardest thing about the swap was sourcing the replacement battery.
I really think given a few more years when millions of Model 3s/Ys reach their 2nd/3rd owners, we will see this become more routine.
Also people talk about pack replacements like they are a single monolith but many cars have packs composed of 10-20 modules. Some modules can even be repaired at the cell level. So costs can trend down over time.
The trend has been towards unrepairable monolithic packs. You could do module replacement in the model S packs but since model 3 it's all full of foam.
Swapping for a used battery is pretty easy if you have a lift. Far easy than swapping an ICE engine. It makes sense that there's more aftermarket batteries in China as they have far more EVs and willingness to tinker. We in the US have become cultural allergic to tinkering, everyone cries that you're voiding the warranty or it's too dangerous.
You say that and maybe some stats prove it but then when insurance rates are significantly higher and we see horror stories of drivetrain failures or battery failures, it makes it harder to jump on board.
The insurance rates are higher because they gotta cover six months of rental car while some unobtanium back ordered headlight takes 3mo to ship to the one body shop in 100mi that won't actually get around to working on it for another 3mo (I'm exagerating a little here but not nearly as much as I wish I was).
This is up front price, not TCO where it's already parity.
Also the 50% number is based on a bump in cathode material price in 2022 and 23 as can be clearly seen in the graph.
It's now returned to a long term trend and up front purchase price parity has been predicted for mid 2020s for about a decade now.
Here an article from 2017:
https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-cars-reach-price-parity...
Anyone working on longer timescales should have been planning for this. China was, the West wasn't and now the cheaper and better cars of the future are Chinese made.
>not TCO where it's already parity.
Sorry but this is just not true for any honest meaning of the word "true".
Yes, you have TCO parity in some market segments for some use cases, particularly higher up the market (Tesla M3 vs BMW M3) and in the bottom of the market (subcompacts and compact crossovers) but there are giant gaping holes.
There is no TCO parity (or even an offering) for intentionally built to a price utility vehicles, the little euro city vans and Ford Maverick type stuff.
And this is before you start talking fullsize trucks and vans. The E-transit is a joke from a TCO perspective. It only makes sense if you're trying to run a fairly swanky low milage shuttle service and even then not really. I guess a few senior centers might like them.
The electric half ton trucks are compelling for certain use cases and feature sets but the purchase prices are just so high to start with that the TCO on any useful timeline is way above that of white trucks with vinyl carpets and V6 engines.
TCO parity really isn't there for anyone who gives a crap about TCO and buys accordingly because those people gravitate to the low TCO ICEs and purchase price is such a large contributor to TCO that a reduction in operating costs doesn't wash that out on a timeline that the overwhelming majority of new car buyers care about.
Source: Purchases a new car last quarter. Wanted an EV, wound up with an ICE Honda. :(
There's plenty of fleet sources claiming vans are already winning on TCO in europe.
Which makes sense. Like city busses, EV vans in last mile city traffic are the low hanging fruit for EV adoption.
Planned routes. Being part of mixed fleets (similar to having a two car family and using the EV for most journeys to maximise fuel savings). Stop and go traffic for regen.
>There's plenty of fleet sources claiming vans are already winning on TCO in europe.
Can you cite one? All I'm finding is SEO/AI/low effort listicle type garbage.
>Which makes sense. Like city busses, EV vans in last mile city traffic are the low hanging fruit for EV adoption.
If it makes so much sense for so many users then why aren't we seeing more than the slightest trickle of the?
There's a reason I called the E-transit a joke. That's because it is. Low milage "go somewhere and stay there all day" type van buyers won't pay the initial price. The people moving users who generally buy the higher priced stuff new rack up too many miles in a day and they're gonna suffer some of the worst real world range because they have to heat and cool the cargo.
The only bigger work vehicle EVs are really starting to make sense for is city busses and local delivery (e.g. Amazon and similiar) that need low range, low flexibility (can't turn a van around and send it back out with a new driver at end of shift) and high up front cost. That's a tiny slice of users.
I really want this to work (especially for motor coaches for obvious NVH reasons) because EVs when they work they do an amazing job being pure appliance vehicles. But it just doesn't pencil out without using mental tricks or just writing off downsides that need to be planned around because "other people's money".
If you include capital cost in TCO as you should, a high price up front looks as bad as it should. And since lots of cars are leased or financed, this is also more realistic than the simple&stupid list-price+runningcost calculations.
Could be that the other commenter was seeing it from a market without US-sized trucks? Doesn't this change the argument a bit?
I'm not sure. It may be worse internationally
I think without half ton trucks that get used as personal commuter vehicles in the mix the comparison gets even less favorable to EVs. Vans face all the same problems but worse because people don't buy $50k half ton vans for mostly commuting with a little bit of heavier work thrown in so the tradeoffs are going to make sense for fewer people. There aren't any midsize electric pickups from big OEMs yet (i.e. I bet someone in China makes one that isn't sold internationally).
I guess insane European fuel costs do potentially make the comparison better in the SUV market segments though...
I'm not saying Europeans don't commute by car, but distances are so much smaller that even a plugin can go electric only. Also vans aren't that many and go even less as commuter vehicle, and pickups (or trucks for that matter) aren't a thing at all - I'm not sure I've seen even one during the entire last month.
Indeed: I don't think I've seen a pickup since moving to Berlin, and that was 2018
Kepp looking at the EV market and the cars are pretty lame. The experience of an EV is bar none the best but man the available models seem to suck. I'm just waiting for my favorite manufacturer(Mazda) to make an EV version of my car because I am tired of renting different EVs only to find that they miss some criteria that my current 18 year old rust bucket has.
The question remains whether this price drop - if it actually is going to occur at all - will be forwarded to the end-customer. Right now, the high prices of EV compared to ICE is one of the main roadblocks for broader adoption of electric cars.
The car market is incredibly competitive, especially in the budget range. There are too many automakers competing for any to just decide not to pass savings without having an uncompetitive product.
Why wouldn't it? Capitalism ensures that price drops reach the customer (unless there are cartels, of course, which are game-theoretically hard).
Continuous inflation without raised salaries means exactly the opposite of this.
I ran a python script the other day using the French state data on pricing. Minimal wage was about 1000 euros after tax in 2003, and is 1300 in 2023. But 1000 in 2003 is about 2300 euros in 2023 according to the same official data.
I don't know a single vital thing in my life that is not more expensive now than when I was a kid: food, water, energy, shelter, clothes, health... They are all more expensive.
Now sure, internet access is less expensive and better, but you can't eat wifi.
Why would one expect those things to not be more expensive? Governments explicitly and intentionally manipulate currency so that prices (overall) are on an upward march.
Also, comparing changes in income deciles over time would be more useful than minimum wage changes, as legislatures are not necessarily reacting in real time.
> food, water, energy, shelter, clothes, health
Many of these are things where technological advances resulting in greater and greater economies of scale plateaued, or where technological advances mean that your expectation of the quality of goods or service greatly increased.
The former would be water/energy/shelter/food/clothes. The world has a lot more people competing for these resources, but there was no commensurate increase in supply.
The latter would be health, where the healthcare from your childhood is a greatly different product (at the advanced levels, not necessarily the routine checkup or flu visit).
Given that prices for health in the US are exorbitant because they are based on the free market and the prices in France much cheaper (even when you pay 100% of of pocket) because the market is state controled, I have a hard time to take your comment seriously.
But I'm sure you will find a reason while health is an exception.
> But I'm sure you will find a reason while health is an exception.
Pretty easy to find an exception when you start with a false premise.
> Given that prices for health in the US are exorbitant because they are based on the free market
Unchecked capitalism trys hard to turn into feudalism.
France, a state with famously unchecked capitalism bordering on libertarian anarcho-capitalism.
Right now the entities in the EV battery game want to build out, it's unlikely therefore they'd constrict and choke an ever increasing demand.
That said, there absolutely is the potential for large key players to aquire more control and|or to maximise their profits rather than minimise and end price.
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-supply-chains-of-ev-batte...I would say competitive markets more than capitalism are responsible for that and we've seen many many cartels and monopolies (even with legislation against them) so it's weird to imply that they aren't fairly very common. It also doesn't need to be a full cartel, there is a lot of tacit collusion between companies or other mechanisms where they don't really compete.
> Why wouldn't [the price drop]?
For the same reason that Americans can't buy a BYD Seagull.
Source article: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/electric-vehi...
Until it is in my hands and I've paid that for it at that price, I remain hesitant. I think every early pricing prediction I've seen was to drive investment or interest rather than push costs down.
Sure, now let me buy a BYD so I'm not paying for a lot of bling I don't want.
I doubt the value proposition of buying used EVs will ever reach parity with ICE unless the government forces some new battery warranty/replacement scheme onto EV manufacturers. I was talking to my credit union about this while applying for an auto loan and they said I'd have to be out of my mind to even consider a used EV. A Japanese ICE with 100k miles on it has a high chance of giving the second owner another 100k miles with no major expenses besides oil changes. With used EVs that battery pack is a ticking time bomb waiting to blow a hole in your wallet.
Here's data on EV battery replacement rates:
https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batter...
Replacements do happen, but a lot of them are under warranty. Batteries are lasting longer than people expected, mainly due to really good management systems. These days the industry expects them to usually last the life of the car, though that allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original.
Further tweaks to battery chemistry will probably improve things further. I might not buy an EV with 100K miles on it just yet, but I'd do 30K; a lot of the warranties go to 100K.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2022/08/01/electric...
Agreed the replacement rates have been lower than anticipated.
The only problems have been the predictable ones - bad designs like the early Nissan Leafs which had no thermal management.
That said, the amount of datapoints here should increase by orders of magnitude over the next 2-3 years as the first million Model 3s roll out of their 8 year battery warranty period.
I'm sure that once there is regular demand for battery replacements, the cost won't be much different than an engine rebuild.
So even the pessimist case for EVs today is "well the TCO is lower for the first decade but then..." and I think we will be solving the "but then.." soon.
> allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original.
which means when buying a car, you expect the range listed on the label to only be 70% effective.
What do you mean? When I buy an ICE car I am not buying it with the expectation that the engine and transmission will die imminently. Why would you assume 70% capacity for an EV?
That is surprising, I've always thought the value proposition of used EV would be miles ahead of ICE vehicles, at least the more modern ones. A quick google also confirms that the average life expectancy in mileage of EV is already ahead of ICE cars. Generally, EV have the reputation of requiring much less maintenance.
> Generally, EV have the reputation of requiring much less maintenance.
I'm sure you could generate a maintenance figure for EV that was lower than ICE if you wanted to. But I doubt that figure would be significant, maybe 10-15% if you're lucky.
Why ? Well, let's face it, an EV is still a car. So you still have 99% of the same old things ... tyres, brakes, shock-absorbers, windscreen, windscreen wiper blades, washer fluid, AC gas etc. etc. etc.
And then, of course, if there are problems with your EV battery, or its time for an EV battery replacement, then that 10-15% saving goes out the window. :)
> 99% of the same old things ... tyres, brakes
Aren't brakes one shared system where electric vehicles have an advantage? With the widespread use of regenerative braking, most of the energy of motion is bled off without friction on wear parts. EVs still need brake discs and calipers to maintain a full stop (particularly on an incline), for emergency braking, and as a failsafe, but the parts should experience much less routine wear.
Additionally, your list omits the entire exhaust system, which is full of components that can foul up or corrode. Combustion exhaust gasses can be pretty corrosive stuff, particularly when combined with water condensation on short trips/cold days.
You’re heavily oversimplifying things. If you look at some random Volkswagen or BMW service plan - it’s always about engine. Oil, belts, chains, spark plugs, air filters. Parts optimized for a profitable quick replacement at a dealership. Easily 600-900€ yearly with today’s prices.
There are also gazillion things to fail and to be repaired. Sensors, hoses, cables, alternator, fuel lines, clutch, exhaust system. All these parts were replaced in family’s petrol cars during last years.
I doubt, that today’s Teslas will have battery problems. They have enough knowledge for volume production. Expect 2% early battery capacity degradation though.
> an EV is still a car. So you still have the same old things ...
No, an ICE has a very complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts. Belts, transmissions, gears, fuel filter, oil seals and gaskets, batteries (ICE's need them too), spark plugs, fuel pump, fuel injector, alternator, radiator and water pump, catalytic converter, etc etc .
Brakes also wear slower on EVs since regnerative braking captures some energy.
Electric motors themselves are far more reliable and simpler than ICE motors.
Those "complex parts" (engine and gearboxes) usually only require yearly oil changes and replacement of minor parts as you mentioned (spark plugs, plug wires, belts, tensioners--maybe injectors every 100kmi) for the first quarter million miles. At 10kmi/yr that's 25yr.
The complexity as defined by parts count doesn't have much practical impact on TCO.
since you mention the radiator, the EV needs quite the cooling as well; although I do agree for the most part. The electric motors are a lot simpler than even a small engine lawnmower.
> batteries (ICE's need them too)
I've replaced a few ICE batteries in my time. You can replace them at home in 5 minutes and they are a gazillion times cheaper than an EV battery. :)
> ICE has a very complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts. Belts, transmissions, gears, fuel filter, oil seals and gaskets
This whole thing about ICE is FUD IMHO. Yes, complex, but on modern ICE vehicles is highly-reliable.
Also I would argue with EVs you are replacing ICE "complexity" with other complexity. For example, in EVs you now have individual motors on four wheels (i.e. potentially four points of failure), you have all the software in EVs etc. etc. etc.
I would also argue that the ICE "complexity" of what you speak is NOT where the bulk of ICE maintenance costs come from. Afterall, topping up the oil and replacing gaskets is kids work.
The bulk of ICE maintenance will ultimately be the same as EV maintenance, i.e. all the wear-and-tear parts I listed already, such as tyres.
Most EVs don't have four motors on each wheel. They'll have one or two.
It also depends a lot on what type of ICE we are talking about. A very high power output downsizing engine with two turbochargers, direct fuel injection, EGR, intercooler, electric oil pump(s) (for turbo cooling), variable valve timings and/or lift systems etc. -- what you'll typically find in a high trim ICE mid-class car -- has far, far more parts and experiences a lot higher stresses than e.g. the naturally aspirated port injection engine you might find in a city car.
That said, my BEV is currently in service due to the charger shorting out for some reason. Not sure which came first, but the battery cable harness also got damaged and had to be replaced.
A quick change once the parts arrived they said. The car is still under warranty so won't cost me a dime, but if the bill they presented me with is real and not some "medical bill" shenanigans, the charger alone would be 1/8th the price of the car as new, total repair cost 1/5th...
So yeah, still some expensive parts that can break. Was quite happy with very little maintenance costs so far, but if that price was real and charger breaks after warranty is out, the whole value proposition is quite different.
It's not 99% of the same things, you have cherry picked.
There's many studies comparing the cost, I've never see any that put the saving as low as 10 to 15%, 50% is a more common figure.
Most manufacturers grantee their batteries , mine has a 10 year warranty.Batteries developing problems and needing to be replaces is not really a thing.
> It's not 99% of the same things, you have cherry picked.
No, I have not cherry picked.
Because the remaining 1%, topping-up oil, replacing gaskets, belts etc. is simply not where the bulk of ICE maintenance costs come from. This sort of stuff can be done cheaply and easily by your local garage.
The bulk of the ICE and EV maintenance costs is the same, the stuff that gets exposed to the wear-and-tear of the elements, i.e. your tyres, your windscreen, your shock-absorbers etc. etc.
An EV does not make you immune to getting nails in your tyres, chips in your windscreen, cracks in your shock-absorbers etc. ....
> Most manufacturers grantee their batteries , mine has a 10 year warranty
As with most things of this nature, I would be interested to see the wordings of such warranties, particularly the exclusion clauses. :)
> There's many studies comparing the cost...
And if we exclude studies funded/conducted by the EV companies or others with vested interests ? :)
> your tyres
i've heard, not 100% sure if true, that EV tends to push the tyres harder, as they accelerate harder. This means tyres lasts for less for an EV.
> that EV tends to push the tyres harder, as they accelerate harder.
I would think the regen breaking might also put wear on the tyres, especially for those people who like it set in the more aggressive modes.
It’s the driver. BMW tires and brakes do not last long too.
> Most manufacturers grantee their batteries , mine has a 10 year warranty
A ten year battery warranty means most used car buyers would be without a battery warranty. My current car was 12 years old when I got it, and in basically pristine condition. Good ICE cars are very durable in a way that the batteries in EVs simply aren't.
Ever have your phone or laptop not hold the charge it used to when you first bought it? The same thing happens to car batteries. This certainly doesn't help with people's range anxiety.
I'm on the sideline waiting for the battery tech to improve a bit more before buying my next (electric) car.
As an aside, I'm horrified by what new privacy invasive "features" these cars will include in all electric cars.
Data is a bit light on the ground given we haven't had masses of EVs for all that long. But I wouldn't necessarily have this expectation based off of phones and laptops.
EVs have really high-end battery management systems and cooling, which will have a huge impact on battery life.
Heck even my phone is lasting better these days with just better software battery management in Android. My current oneplus 9 is going on three and a half years old and hasn't notably degraded in battery life. Whereas I'm pretty sure I remember all my previous phones having noticeable battery degradation after a year or so.
>Ever have your phone or laptop not hold the charge it used to when you first bought it?
While true, the analogy is bad. The phones (and to some extent laptops) are notorious of the overcharge. The Li-Ion (cobalt) normally should be charged to 4.22V or so. Tool batteries usually do not go over 4.18V. Yet, the phones are happily pushing 4.35V - which provides longer life per charge initially, plus a proper planned obsolescence later.
EV do proper battery management AND cooling.
At the very extreme end, Apple Watch batteries have a 3.87 V nominal and 4.45 V end of charge voltage. Most lipoly pouch cells would turn into a balloon trying to do that once.
> I'm horrified by what new privacy invasive "features" these cars will include in all electric cars.
My main horror with EVs, particularly Teslas is putting everything on a tablet display in the middle.
Its like it was designed by some kid who's never driven a car.
Its a safety issue, frankly. IMHO.
In many U.S. states using a cell phone while driving is illegal under distracted driving rules. It should be the same for touch screens of all kinds.
Used EVs tend to be quite expensive for now, at least in EU. But it's certainly also affected by supply/demand, there are simply not that many used EVs for sale yet.
And at least in case of Teslas it's mostly the higher models in higher trims, since those are the ones the early customers bought.
I assumed there would be a market for new aftermarket batteries but it hasn't developed at all. Theoretically a battery pack isn't the most complicated thing and electrical compatibility is a lot easier to achieve than for a ICE.
1. Sourcing is difficult. Would you buy some random batteries from China? Do you trust the dealer that it won't fry your customer in few months after installation? Can you verify that what they are selling is what you have in your hand?
2. You need to know a lot about batteries and even more about battery management system and then know how to integrate batteries + BMS into a car. Sure you might be able to reuse existing BMS for a car you are targeting but it will quickly become a bottle neck in your manufacturing if you do so.
3. Pairing of parts. Related to point 3. You might be able to build a battery pack, are you able to also force the car to take the battery pack? Car might outright refuse to talk to it, because it is not paired and OEM won't let you pair it, because "safety", but more like safety of their profits.
4. Shipping of Lithium batteries in general is huge PITA. Try to ship battery of any size with Fedex/DHL/UPS. They either outright refuse to or you will pay a lot of extra.
I saw a teenager on YouTube replace the battery on an early LEAF with a newer, higher capacity pack from a later model and (separately) a Chinese firm offering replacement packs for the same car at capacities never offered by the OEM.
Notably the kid said the hardest thing about the swap was sourcing the replacement battery.
Rich Rebuilds used to do stuff like this too.
I really think given a few more years when millions of Model 3s/Ys reach their 2nd/3rd owners, we will see this become more routine.
Also people talk about pack replacements like they are a single monolith but many cars have packs composed of 10-20 modules. Some modules can even be repaired at the cell level. So costs can trend down over time.
The trend has been towards unrepairable monolithic packs. You could do module replacement in the model S packs but since model 3 it's all full of foam.
Swapping for a used battery is pretty easy if you have a lift. Far easy than swapping an ICE engine. It makes sense that there's more aftermarket batteries in China as they have far more EVs and willingness to tinker. We in the US have become cultural allergic to tinkering, everyone cries that you're voiding the warranty or it's too dangerous.
It just seems like instead of the cost being a function of miles, an EV's cost function would include miles and battery age or usage.
You are talking out of your posterior. EVs are far more reliable and have less maintenance than ICE vehicles.
You say that and maybe some stats prove it but then when insurance rates are significantly higher and we see horror stories of drivetrain failures or battery failures, it makes it harder to jump on board.
>insurance rates are significantly higher
The insurance rates are higher because they gotta cover six months of rental car while some unobtanium back ordered headlight takes 3mo to ship to the one body shop in 100mi that won't actually get around to working on it for another 3mo (I'm exagerating a little here but not nearly as much as I wish I was).
We all pay for it on some level.